Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
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The 2021 NFL Draft quarterback class is loaded with talent. FTNFantasy’s first mock draft of the offseason had five QBs going in the top 10. One of those in the mix is Ohio State QB Justin Fields, fresh off a national title game appearance.
What should we expect of Fields from a fantasy perspective? And where should we be rooting for him to play? This article will break it all down.
College production
| Year | School | Class | Games | Comp | Atts | % | Yds | Y/A | TD | Int | Rush Att. | Rush Yds. | Rush TD |
| 2018 | Georgia | FR | 12 | 27 | 39 | 69.2 | 328 | 8.4 | 4 | 0 | 42 | 266 | 4 |
| 2019 | Ohio State | SO | 14 | 238 | 354 | 67.2 | 3273 | 9.2 | 41 | 3 | 137 | 484 | 10 |
| 2020 | Ohio State | JR | 8 | 158 | 225 | 70.2 | 2100 | 9.3 | 22 | 6 | 81 | 383 | 5 |
Fields did not play much as a freshman at Georgia, but he shined as a sophomore at Ohio State, tossing 41 touchdowns against just three interceptions, adding 484 rushing yards and 10 scores as well.
He followed up that impressive campaign with an even better 2020 season, albeit a shortened one (only eight games). His completion rate went up above 70%, his TD-INT ratio remained stellar (22-to-6), and his rushing production was just as good.
Strengths
- Accuracy
- Rushing ability
- Off-schedule plays
Fields is a great QB prospect — our first mock draft has him going in the top five. His accuracy will serve him well at the NFL level. Take Josh Allen as an example: His accuracy increased dramatically from his rookie season while his rushing ability stayed largely the same, and Allen became a legitimate fantasy MVP candidate.
By far Fields’ most important strength, from a fantasy perspective, is his rushing ability. Over his last two years in college (22 games), Fields averaged nearly 40 rushing yards per game and a huge 0.7 rushing TDs per game. If he can translate that rushing production in the NFL, he’ll be on the fantasy radar from Day 1.
Weaknesses
- Blitz recognition
- Locks on primary targets
- Consistency
While one of Fields’ strengths is off-schedule plays, he has struggled against the blitz. That could turn into a major problem in the NFL , but it’s certainly something that can be improved. Fields also locked onto primary targets at Ohio State, though their receivers were often running wide open, so there wasn’t always a need to go through more reads. That’s not to say Fields can’t do it — just that we haven’t seen much of it.
Another knock on Fields is consistency. He started his 2020 season hot, but he did throw for fewer than 200 yards in three of his last four games.
Landing spots
It’s widely believed Fields will go in the top 10, and that Trevor Lawrence is the only QB that will definitely go before him. Here are his three best landing spots in the top 10 from a fantasy perspective.
- Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins have stacked offensive talent. DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin and even Jakeem Grant is a solid core of talent to work with. This would be a great fantasy landing spot, but are the Dolphins ready to move on from Tua Tagovailoa already?
- Detroit Lions: If the Lions tag Kenny Golladay, this is another solid potential landing spot for Fields. Even without Golladay, it’s still good, but he would be the icing on the cake. Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift is one of the best supporting casts any QB could ask for — let alone a rookie.
- Carolina Panthers: Yet another team in the top 10, with a need at QB, that has a strong supporting cast of skill position players. D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel formed one of the best WR trios in the league last year (Samuel could leave as a free agent this offseason), and then, of course, there’s Christian McCaffrey, the best receiving back in the NFL.
Fantasy upside
If the landing spot is right, Fields could be a borderline fantasy QB1 as soon as 2021 thanks to his rushing ability. Save for the best of the best passers in the NFL (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, etc.), rushing production is the key to unlocking fantasy success for QBs, and it’s absolutely a skill Fields possesses. But if he lands somewhere like Atlanta, where he’d likely sit for several years, even his dynasty value will take a hit. But of all the QBs in this year’s class, Fields has the best chance to make an immediate fantasy impact thanks to his legs.
