Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
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We continue our prospect breakdowns for the 2021 NFL Draft with another running back. This time it is Memphis running back Kenneth Gainwell, a very versatile player who may not be a full-time starting running back at the NFL level, but could be a dynamic piece of an offense.
Kenneth Gainwell’s college production
Gainwell opted out of the 2020 season, which many players have done. But when we last saw him in 2019, he produced in a huge way, rushing for 1,459 yards on 231 attempts, while scoring 16 touchdowns. He was also very present in the passing game, hauling in 51 balls for 610 yards, seeing a healthy 13.8% target share, which puts him in the 91st percentile. Gainwell had a six-game stretch where he rushed for 100 yards, while also posting a ridiculous nine-catch, 203-yard, two-touchdown performance as a receiver against Tulane. He had over 300 all-purpose yards in that game; when he enters the NFL, Gainwell will be exactly that type of a running back — all purpose. Memphis originally recruited him as a wide receiver, but he made the switch to running back. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play either position at the next level, but one thing is for certain: Gainwell will make some plays.
Strengths: Kenneth Gainwell’s receiving game is elite
- Elite pass-catcher
- Natural route-runner
- Can win vs. corners
- Makes great adjustments to the ball
- Elusive back
The most obvious strength to Gainwell’s game is his natural ability to catch passes not just out of the backfield but all over the field. Gainwell catches the ball with his hands, not his body, sporting just three career drops over his collegiate career. He is a fluid pass-catcher and can make the tough catches, as there were multiple times in 2019 where he made great last-second adjustments on balls being thrown behind him, which shows that he can play all over the field at the NFL level. And that is what he did at Memphis. A former high school signal caller, Gainwell took plenty of snaps (25) as a wildcat quarterback in 2019. He also lined up in the slot 91 times and out wide 13 times, showing the ability to win not only against linebackers, but cornerbacks, too. The way he was used really reminds me of how the Panthers used Curtis Samuel last season and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him used in a similar way in the pros. There is so much versatility with Gainwell because he’s legitimately a good route-runner, which could lead to him becoming a full-time slot receiver.
As a runner, Gainwell is solid, too. There’s no reason to think he can’t run the football in the NFL. I love his agility and elusiveness, as forced 56 missed tackles in 2019 and posted nearly 800 yards after contact. He isn’t going to run over many defenders at his size, but he runs a lot harder than you’d expect and doesn’t shy away from contact, though his strong suit is definitely making defenders miss. His lateral agility is strong, and his vision is above average, which can sometimes help make up for a lack of elite speed. Gainwell’s top skill is his ability as a receiver, but by no means is he a zero as a running back.
Weaknesses: Kenneth Gainwell isn’t a bruiser
- Lacks top end speed
- Undersized
- Struggles in pass protection
As a runner, Gainwell reminds me a lot of Buffalo’s Devin Singletary. Both are smaller backs, and while Gainwell is listed as 5-foot-11, 195 pounds, I think he is smaller than that, while Singletary is 5-8 or 5-9. Both also lack elite speed, as Singletary ran a 4.66 40-yard dash, which was the reason he fell to the third round. Gainwell also isn’t anywhere close to the fastest running back in this draft class and I expect his 40 time to hover around the high 4.5-second range. Because of that, I also think the earliest he is drafted is the third round, which could hurt his overall usage in his rookie season. Of course, with Gainwell being a smaller running back, we talked about how he isn’t going to break many tackles, which likely results in very little goal line work in the NFL, again, very similar to Singletary, who gets almost zero short-yardage looks. He also doesn’t project as a great pass-blocker, which could hurt his playing time on passing downs, which is really where we want him on the field. But if he is used as a wide receiver, that likely won’t matter.
Kenneth Gainwell’s best fits in the draft
It is tough to find a landing spot for Gainwell to thrive in fantasy right away. Perhaps if the Jaguars select him in the beginning of the third round, Gainwell could enter the year as the backup to James Robinson and become the passing-down back on a team that should be throwing the football quite a bit. I also think the Giants make sense in the fourth round, as they have been looking to upgrade at backup running back behind Saquon Barkley, and Wayne Gallman, who was serviceable last year, is an unrestricted free agent. Perhaps even the Patriots could take Gainwell with a later-round pick and just play him as a receiver, as they have the worst supporting cast in football and James White is a free agent.
