Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 4’s “10 Things to Know” for fantasy football is here to navigate the madness and turn those unexpected twists into championship gold. The fantasy landscape may be in disarray, but there’s much to learn from it all. Let’s dive in.
1. Irving’s Inevitable Rise
In the prophetic words of George-Michael Bluth, “It’s happening, isn’t it?” I touched the Bucs backfield in Week 2 and said Bucky Irving will eat away at Rachaad White’s touches unless White’s efficiency improves.
It has not.
White’s yards per carry has fallen to barely over two, which has enabled Irving to outgain him by 86 yards on six fewer carries. Per FTN StatsHub, Irving has bested White in nearly every rushing metric that matters, including yards per carry (6.2 to 2.1), avoided tackle percentage (24.0% to 19.4%), yards before and after contact, success rate, juke rate….the list goes on and on. Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles has regularly praised Irving and said that after their Week 3 game, Irving has “earned more snaps moving forward.” Bowles attributed White outsnapping Irving 42-18 on being behind and White being “…probably a better pass protector at this point.” Irving is playing his way into the heavy side of the committee in this backfield and should be picked up in every league, regardless of format.
2. Patrick Meh-homes, Amirite?
There is a huge contrast between fantasy football and real-life NFL values, especially for quarterbacks (Tim Tebow, anyone?). There’s no need for me to wax poetic about Patrick Mahomes status in the NFL, but for fantasy, he’s no longer a must-start. Frankly, he hasn’t been for a while now. Mahomes has thrown for over 300 yards just once since Week 7 of the 2023 season, which, oddly enough, was the last time he threw more than two touchdowns in a single game. Mahomes has thrown multiple touchdowns in only seven of his previous 13 games, throwing for one or fewer in the other six.
According to FTN StatsHub, Mahomes is tied with a litany of other quarterbacks for the second-most turnover-worthy throws in 2024 with six and tied for the third-most interceptions with four. He’s no longer an automatic plug-and-play in 1QB. You’re starting him in Superflex weekly, but his ceiling isn’t what it once was.
3. Jayden Daniels Is the Truth
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels may have been the second quarterback taken in the draft, but he’s sitting atop the rookie QB ranks through three games. And after his breakout Monday performance versus the Bengals, Daniels ranks as the fantasy QB2 overall. Along with Caleb Williams, it took until Week 3 for Daniels to throw his first (and second) touchdown, but as expected, he’s producing on the ground. Daniels has the second-most rushing yards for quarterbacks with 171 yards, is tied with Jalen Hurts for the most quarterback red zone carries with 10 and is tied with running back Brian Robinson for most goal line carries on the Commanders. Daniels is a locked-and-loaded must-start in every format, with the safe floor provided by his rushing and sky-high ceiling when he can air it out. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him finish inside the top five at the position.
4. Devin Singletary Is Just Fine
While he’s no Saquon Barkley, Devin Singletary has done justice to the No. 26 Giants jersey as his replacement. According to FTN StatsHub, Singletary ranks second in avoided tackle rate among running backs with at least 25 attempts. Averaging 14 carries a game and coming off back-to-back games with a touchdown, Singletary ranks as the RB17 overall in PPR scoring and is locked in as a mid- to high-end RB2.
5. Buffalo’s Breakout Wide Receiver: Khalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir has ended any doubt of who the Bills’ primary beneficiary would be with Stefon Diggs heading to Houston. Shakir is just one of two players and the only Buffalo wide receiver with 10 or more targets on the season.
He led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, and his 3.0 yards per route run is tied with Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Gowin for 10th in the NFL. Shakir also sits inside the league’s top 10 in yards per target. He’s unquestionably the Bills WR1 and a borderline WR2 for fantasy with potential for more. If you have league-mates who don’t believe in the breakout, make a move for him.
6. Zamir White Is a Bust … and Droppable
Raiders running back Zamir White is by far one of the biggest early-season busts of 2024. After a solid finish to 2023 and, assumedly, the bell-cow back, with Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce repeatedly expressing his desire to get White 20-plus touches a game, he’s averaging a meager 10.7. Alexander Mattison has been more involved than anticipated, including three of the uber-valuable red zone carries to White’s one. Mattison has received the only two goal-line carries for the Raiders, converting both into touchdowns. Mattison is out targeting White and has the lone running back touchdown reception for the Raiders as well. Neither Raiders running backs hold much fantasy value and hopes of RB2 value for White are dead. Zamir White is droppable in all formats.
7. Caleb Williams Shows Signs of Life
Caleb Williams threw his first two touchdowns and eclipsed 350 yards passing in the best game of the rookie quarterback’s young career. It’s an encouraging sign for his fantasy value moving forward. But it was far from a performance that gives enough confidence to make Williams an every-week starter. Williams threw two interceptions for the second game in a row, and while his 363 passing yard total was the second highest on the week, it took him 52 attempts to get there. Per FTN StatsHub, his 7.0 yards per attempt ranked 19th (min. 15 passing attempts), lower than Justin Fields (7.7), Gardner Minshew (7.6) and walking meme Will Levis (7.6). In fairness to Williams, he’s yet to have his trio of wide receivers, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, all play in the same game, and there’s plenty of reason for hope. He leads the league in passing attempts of 20-plus yards with 21, and his 8.8-yard average target depth ranks sixth highest. After opening the season with two grotesque fantasy performances, Williams’ Week 3 performance quashes the Bryce Young bust comparisons for the time being. He’s a solid QB2 in superflex, but I’m still wary of starting him in 1QB leagues.
8. Time to Trade Mark Andrews
I rarely recommend selling low, but Mark Andrews may be the rare case it’s worth it. Andrews has just six catches for 65 yards through three games, and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh suggested the tight end rotation for the Ravens isn’t going anywhere. The emergence of Isaiah Likely was already a concern before the season started.
Nobody expected Likely to see the field more, but that’s precisely what’s happened through three games, with Likely besting Andrews 121 snaps to 114. He’s doubled Andrews’ targets and receptions and is the tight end you want in Baltimore. If you can sell Andrews for even 25 cents on the dollar, do it.
9. Buy Rico Dowdle
Part of the reason for the Dallas Cowboys’ rough start to the season has been their inability to run the ball. But Rico Dowdle has been the most productive back when given the opportunity. Ezekiel Elliott, with his 3.2 yards per carry, is dust. Dalvin Cook, with his 3.2 yards per carry last season, is dust. Coming off his second straight game over four yards per carry and seeing five targets, Dowdle could quickly become the lead in this backfield and a bump in value to borderline RB2 status.
10. Small Window to Sell High on Hubbard
The benching of Bryce Young for Andy Dalton didn’t just impact the Panthers’ passing attack; it also opened up the ground game. Chuba Hubbard ran for a season-best 114 yards on 21 carries and caught all five of his targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. But Hubbard’s value will be short lives. According to Carolina head coach Dave Canales, second-round pick and first running back off the board Jonathon Brooks is nearing a return to the field. Trade Hubbard for anything of value before he’s once again waiver fodder.
Remember, “Dynasty Moves to Make” is coming your way Friday, and I’m always available on Twitter/X for your fantasy football questions.
