NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The Week 1 roller coaster is over, and now the real work begins. My weekly “10 Things to Know” is a quick-hitting playbook of what’s happening across the wonderful world of fantasy football to help you navigate the chaos. So grab a snack, settle in and let’s go.
1. Zero-RB Hero? Dobbins Delivers
We knew the Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers would run the ball and likely run it well, but nobody saw J.K. Dobbins performing the way he did in Week 1 (well, maybe Mike Randle did). A valid concern coming into the season was whether Dobbins still had his explosiveness after multiple devastating knee injuries. He silenced those concerns at least for one week. Per the FTN StatsHub, Dobbins had the highest average yards after contact for running backs (7.7) and had the second-highest explosive run rate at the position (30%). He and Aaron Jones were the only two running backs with a rate in the 30s.
Gus Edwards was still involved and actually had more rushing attempts, 11 to Dobbins’ 10. But Edwards was much less productive. If Dobbins can stay healthy, he could be a league winner. He’s a must-start this week in a matchup against the Panthers.
2. Tank Rolls, But Etienne Still the Lead Dog
Jaguars backup running back Tank Bigsby had himself a day Sunday, averaging 6.1 yards per carry and easily besting starter Travis Etienne’s YPC of 3.7. Bigsby unexpectedly matched Etienne in carries with 12 apiece as well. There are rumblings of concern that Etienne’s costly fumble on the goal line could push things closer to a 50/50 split in the long term, but the worry is premature. Sure, they had the same number of rushing attempts, but Etienne played 70% of snaps compared to 32% for Bigsby. Etienne was also the only one of the duo who saw any targets and the uber-valuable red zone carries. After the game, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson reiterated they will continue to feed Etienne the ball. Bigsby is worth a waiver wire pickup and stash as a handcuff with a high ceiling, but Etienne will be just fine.
3. Bucky Irving Emerges, White’s Grip Slips?
Another backup running back whose Week 1 performance stirred up calls for a committee was Buccaneers rookie Bucky Irving (who happened to be Daniel Kelley’s prediction of the top player drafted outside of the top 150). Per FTN Data, Irving had the third-highest explosive run rate and doubled Rachaad White’s rushing yardage on six fewer carries in Week 1. While the circumstances are similar to Jacksonville, this is a situation I’m keeping very close tabs on. White got all the red zone carries, six more rushing attempts and double Irving’s targets, but he was highly inefficient. He had an anemic 3.6 yards per carry last season and started off 2024 with an even worse 2.4 YPC in Week 1. Unless White suddenly becomes a more efficient ball carrier, I expect Irving to carve out a more prominent role as the season progresses, potentially handling the early-down role. Irving is also a very capable pass catcher, and if he were to ever get the majority of touches in the backfield to himself, he’d immediately have RB2 potential.
4. Canales Who? Mayfield’s Cooking
Critics have credited Baker Mayfield’s bounceback 2023 more to former offensive coordinator Dave Canales than Mayfield himself. With Canales leaving for Carolina, there was concern Mayfield would regress. Baker quickly silenced the doubters, at least for one week. I was hesitant, but digging into the numbers at the FTN StatsHub, I’m starting to believe in Baker. He was one of two quarterbacks to start the season with a completion percentage over 80%, despite being pressured on 38.7% of his dropbacks, the sixth highest in the league. He threw just one interception-worthy throw and averaged 9.6 yards per attempt. I’m not fully bought in on Baker just yet, but if you’re in a pinch at quarterback, he’s worth taking a look at. He has the potential to become an every-week starter in superflex if he proves to be consistent.
5. Slot Machine: Chris Godwin’s Back
I promise this is the last mention of any Buccaneers in this article. But bear with me. Ignoring the Bucs putting up 37 points in Week 1 is impossible despite facing a subpar Commander’s defense. The offseason chatter of Chris Godwin being moved back into the slot wasn’t just coachspeak: Godwin lined up in the slot for 65% of his snaps and fulfilled the prophecy of being much more productive when he is. Godwin saw eight targets, a number he met or surpassed in just six of his 17 games last season. A matchup with the Detroit Lions awaits him in Week 2, who Cooper Kupp just torched from the slot for 14 catches, 120 yards and a touchdown. Godwin is barreling toward must-start status and a potential WR1 season.
6. CMC Out, Mason In.
Speaking of must-start, as long as Chrisitan McCaffrey remains on the shelf, 49ers running back Jordan Mason should be in your lineups. With CMC a surprise (to some) inactive Monday night, Mason made the most of his first NFL start. Mason rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.3 yards per carry while finishing inside the top five in red zone carries, goal line carries, first downs and yards after contact. Mason tied Aaron Jones for the most explosive runs in Week 1 with five and proved he could handle a bell-cow workload of 28 carries. Reports have McCaffrey as a long shot to play in Week 2 due to a lingering calf/Achilles issue. Double-check your waiver wire just in case he’s still floating out there. Mason should be rostered in 100% of leagues and starting if CMC out again.
7. Patience with Mitchell: Big Plays Coming
Don’t be discouraged by the disappointing debut for Adonai Mitchell and drop him in frustration. Justin Jefferson scored under 10 points in five of his first seven NFL games. De’Von Achane had one rushing attempt going into Week 3 last season. I’m not saying Mitchell will become the type of difference-maker they became, but we’ve seen this song and dance before. Mitchell’s fantasy total was disappointing, but better days are ahead. Unsurprisingly, Mitchell’s 1.2 fantasy points were the lowest among the 57 wide receivers who saw five or more targets in Week 1. But he was so close to putting up huge numbers in his rookie debut if Anthony Richardson was just a little more accurate on a couple of throws. The numbers you want to see are there for Mitchell. He was second on the team in targets, was the only wide receiver to see an end-zone target and had the highest target rate in tight coverage. He had a solid average depth of target at 16.4 but a catchable air yard rate of -1.2%. Richardson isn’t a highly accurate quarterback, but he’ll improve from his Week 1 performance. When he does, Mitchell has a chance to go nuclear.
8. Bijan Robinson
It’s no secret how much I love Bijan Robinson. He was my RB1 overall for the season, and if he continues to get fed like he did in Week 1, he’ll have every opportunity to do so. Robinson had 18 carries and five targets for a combined 23 touches on Sunday. Robinson had more games in 2023 with 15 or fewer touches (five, six if you count the “headache game”) than he did with 20 or more (three). Despite the offseason coach speaking of Tyler Allgeier receiving a significant role in this offense, he had three carries on ten snaps. It’s just one week, but new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has kept his word that Bijan would be given the Kyren Williams role in his offense. I don’t expect 20-plus touches every game, but if he can average in the 17-19 range, he can single-handedly win championships.
9. Keenan Allen: Williams’ Security Blanket?
A lot of offseason hate was thrown around toward Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen. Reports of him being overweight, concerned with his age, moving from the Chargers offense to the Bears, and having an uncertain target share scared people away from drafting him. Allen was targeted on 35.5% of his routes in Week 1, according to FTN StatsHub. He led the Bears with 11 targets and received the only two red zone targets despite playing fewer snaps than DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. Thanks to Williams’ rough rookie debut, Allen had a subpar day from a fantasy points perspective. But with Odunze banged up, Allen could see a bump in his team-leading targets. Moore and Odunze have the higher upside, but Allen looks to be Caleb Williams’s go-to guy.
10. When Love’s Back, Bet on Doubs
Jayden Reed is the Packers wide receiver on everyone’s radar after a two-touchdown performance in Brazil, but don’t overlook Romeo Doubs. Although he had just four catches for 50 yards, Doubs led Green Bay wide receivers in snap percentage, was tied for the team lead with seven targets and saw 25% of the red zone targets. I’m not comfortable starting Doubs with Jordan Love, so I’m set to miss at least one game, potentially more. But when Love returns, Doubs is a solid flex play and the Packers wide receiver with the best combination of ceiling and floor.
And that, my friends, is a wrap on “10 Things” for Week 2! Don’t forget to catch my “Dynasty Moves to Make” series every Friday, and never hesitate to reach out on Twitter/X with your fantasy queries.
