NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (3/16)

Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks.

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool. You can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.

Kevin Durant OVER 36.5 Points+Assists

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 40.5 P+A)

Kevin Durant has been exceptional since his return to the lineup, and when you look at some of his games over the last six starts, he is averaging 30 PPG and 7 APG, but some of those numbers are brought down a bit as KD played second fiddle in two of them where he scored 20 or fewer points thanks to 50- and 60-point performances from Kyrie Irving. With Irving out Wednesday, KD should handle a ton of usage and be relied upon as the top scorer all night. 

Stephen Curry OVER 10.5 Rebounds+Assists

(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 10.75)

Stephen Curry has flashed 8-plus upside in both of these categories in the last three games. Two games ago he posted 8 assists, and three games back he recorded 9 boards. He had 6 and 6 last game against Washington and has been over this number in seven of his last 10. You can potentially find this number at 9.5, but at +100 I like the number at 10.5. 

Devin Booker OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 3.04)

Booker has hit at least 3 threes in each of his last five games, and now he gets a great matchup against the Rockets. A blowout might be a concern, but Booker should have plenty of opportunities to hit this number even in 32 or fewer minutes. In his last two games, he played no more than 32 minutes because of blowouts and still attempted 9 and 10 three-pointers.