Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets.
The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks.
We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.
Jarrett Allen OVER 14.5 Points
(-115, BetMGM, Projection: 18.3)
Jarrett Allen has 15 or more points in four of his last five games and is averaging north of 16 on the year. He had 17 in just 31 minutes in the Cavs’ Jan. 14 matchup against the Spurs, and while the Cavs are adding Caris LeVert, Darius Garland is still questionable. However, even with both of those guards projected to play our model has Allen for over 18 points.
Bojan Bogdanovic UNDER 5.5 Rebounds
(-130, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 3.9)
Bojan Bogdanovic went on a bit of a tear with back-to-back games with at least 7 rebounds, and that has brought his line way up to 5.5, but he is averaging just 4.3 on the year. Rudy Gobert will remain out, but the Jazz will still likely see stronger rebounders like Hassan Whiteside and Udoka Azubuike getting significant minutes.
Coby White OVER 15.5 Points
(-122, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 16.7)
There is not a massive margin with our projection hare, but FanDuel is a point lower than some other books across the industry, and this is a great matchup for Coby White as he faces the Hornets who are top three in pace and bottom three in defensive efficiency this year. Additionally, the Bulls are expected to be without three of their top guards as Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu are out here. So White could get some more minutes and usage here in this one.
