NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (2/2)

Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks.

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.

Anfernee Simons OVER 18.5 Points

(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 22.84)

Anfernee Simons continues to benefit from the absence of Damian Lillard, as his usage is up near 25% with Dame off the floor. Over his last 13 games, Simons has only been below this number four times. The Lakers continue to play fast, as they lead the NBA in pace and are also bottom half in defensive efficiency, leading to a strong matchup for Simons and the Trail Blazers.

Georges Niang OVER 6.5 Points

(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 8.36)

Kind of an obscure prop bet here, but Georges Niang is averaging over 9 PPG this season, and we could see him pick up some more minutes and shoot attempts with Furkan Korkmaz out. Niang has gone over this number in six of his last nine games. 

LaMelo Ball OVER 6.5 Rebounds

(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 7.7)

These kinds of rebounding overs on great rebounding guards like Dejounte Murray, Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball are quickly becoming the first numbers I look at each day. It feels like any time these numbers are between 5.5-6.5 they are far too low as these guys have 10-plus rebounding upside on any given night. Ball is averaging north of 7 RPB over the year and has 7-plus in two of his last three games.