NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (2/16)

Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be here breaking down some of my favorite prop bets of the night around the NBA. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks.

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.

Anfernee Simons OVER 21.5 Points

(-118, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 24.1)

Anfernee Simons has turned a page recently with the departures of CJ McCollum and Norman Powell and with Damian Lillard sidelined with an injury. He has a 30% usage rate so far this season with those three off the floor, and he has now scored 29 points in three straight games. Although 19 points wouldn’t get the job done, he has scored 19-plus in seven straight games, and in 16 of his last 19 games. This just goes to show how consistent of a scorer he has been, and in this matchup against the Grizzlies, who are top-three in pace, he should find himself with more consistent volume. 

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 25.5 Points + Assists

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 27.65)

Tyrese Haliburton has been awesome since joining the Pacers. He has been over this number in two of three games, but his one game under this number was right at 25. The minutes have been awesome for him, as he is averaging over 38 MPG. He has scored 17-plus points in all three games and has recorded no fewer than 6 assists in every game as a Pacer. In those three games, he is averaging 20.6 PPG and 10 APG. 

Stephen Curry OVER 31.5 Points + Assists

(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook, Projection: 32.12)

It does feel like Stephen Curry went on a bit of a slump, but he has now scored 24-plus points in three straight games, and in two of those he was over 33 points alone. This is a number Curry could go over on points alone any given night, and the fact that he is averaging over 6 assists per game this season is just the icing on the cake. However, in two of his last three games, he also has 8-plus assists.