NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (12/29)

What is going on everyone? Throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on FTNBets.com to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks! 

We have launched a new NBA Prop Betting tool, you can now quickly compare my projections to lines across several books across the industry here.

Jalen Brunson o20.5 points

(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook, Projection: 25.04)

Jalen Brunson continues to see massive usage and shot volume with Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway sidelined. He has had 12+ shot attempts in the last five games and now gets a great matchup against the Kings. The Kings are second in pace, a massive pace-up spot for the slowest team in basketball, and they are also 25th in defensive efficiency. 

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Mason Plumlee o2.5 assists

(+130, Caesars, Projection: 3.74)

Mason Plumlee is coming off of a 3-assist performance and is averaging nearly 3 per game on the season, he should be expected to see a few extra minutes here with PJ Washington out and the Pacers likely having both Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis on the floor at the same time. His size could be needed. 

Richaun Holmes o9.5 points

(-110, DraftKings, Projection: 15.01)

Richaun Holmes‘ minutes continue to creep up as he returned from injury. He played 24 minutes last game, and if the trend continues we should expect more minutes for him. He averages over 13 PPG this season, so 9.5 is clearly a low line, especially if he can get back to his normal minutes.