Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Sunday brings us two Game 4s, which are always the most crucial games of a seven-game series. The Celtics look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in Philadelphia after dominating the 76ers 114-102 on Friday night. The Celtics didn’t need bench production, as all five starters scored 13 points or more. In the Western Conference, the Suns need to ride the hot scoring of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant as they try to even their series against No. 1 seed Denver. The Suns are simply trying to bide time until Chris Paul can return from the groin injury suffered in Game 2.
Both games carry a spread of exactly 2.5 points, with a total of 214.5 in Boston-Philadelphia and 227.5 in Denver/Phoenix. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season, so make sure to check out our biggest edges on the NBA Sunday slate.
NBA Best Bets
Boston Celtics
Marcus Smart Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
(-110, DraftKings)
Let’s ride the streak.
Marcus Smart has destroyed this number, eclipsing the total nine of the last 10 games. The only game he failed to beat this line was on April 25 when he had heavy foul trouble against Atlanta. Against Philadelphia, Smart has beaten this number in four straight games and six of the last seven. It appears the 76ers are willing to give Smart open shots, as he has averaged 12.6 FGA in his last 10 games against Philadelphia, well above his 9.9 FGA per game during the regular season. Smart sees a robust 32 minutes per game and rarely fouls out. We are going back to the PRA over with Smart, who beat this number 67% of the time against the 76ers this season.
Philadelphia 76ers
De’Anthony Melton Over 1.5 3PM
(-125, DraftKings)
De’Anthony Melton has been a critical bench player for head coach Doc Rivers. Melton has beaten this 3PM line 60% of the time over his last 10 and 80% of the time over Philadelphia’s last five contests. He has been even more reliable at home, beating this line 66% of the time this season and in three of four home games against the Celtics. He has also made 2+ 3P in six of Philadelphia’s seven postseason games.
I expected the juice to be higher on this prop, and it could rise later in the day. But right now, I’m grabbing the -125 value at DraftKings in a home game the 76ers must win.
Philadelphia 76ers
Tobias Harris Over 13.5 Points
(-125, DraftKings)
Going back to this one despite losing in Game 3. Tobias Harris saw two early fouls and never recovered in a game the Celtics won by double-digits. Prior to that, Harris had beaten this line in seven straight games, including six straight playoff games. The return of Embiid shouldn’t have affected this prop, as he beat this line 80% of the time with Embiid on the floor this season. He only attempted six shots, despite averaging 14 FGA in the first two games of this series. I don’t see two bad games in a row for Harris, I’m grabbing the over.
