Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Friday Night Lights has arrived: NBA style!
For the second consecutive night, we have a pair of potential closeout matchups, with both the Heat and Lakers trying to end their series on their home courts. The Knicks forced a Game 6 after a gutsy 112-103 home win Wednesday night, behind a brilliant performance from Jalen Brunson (38 points). Golden State bounced back from two consecutive losses at Los Angeles, to win Game 5 at home, 121-106. Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green combined for 72 points to force Friday’s matchup.
Both games carry a spread of six points or fewer, projecting two close matchups as expected. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season, so make sure to check out our biggest edges on the NBA Friday slate.
NBA Best Bets
Jimmy Butler Over 28.5 Points
(-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Big-Game Jimmy.
For Miami to earn a critical Game 6 win and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, Jimmy Butler needs to have a huge game. As a result of battling a Game 1 injury, Butler’s scoring average is down to just 24.8 PPG. However, he has beaten this number in three of his last five home games and is averaging 29.2 PPG against New York at home this season. We project Butler for a robust 32.7 points, with a 67.8% win probability. Carrying a 16.3% edge, we will grab the over 28.5 points on FanDuel.
Gabe Vincent Over 3.5 Assists
(-124, UniBet)
A sneaky over for Miami point guard Gabe Vincent, who has roasted this line against the Knicks all season. Vincent averages 4.1 assists against New York, beating this line in 73% of their matchups this season. He is over this number in every game of this series and eight of Miami’s last 10 games. Vincent has averaged exactly six assists per game in the last three matchups at Kaseya Center. The juice on this prop ranges from -124 to -150, so we are taking it with the best juice at UniBet.
Mitchell Robinson Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
(-110, BetMGM)
Mitchell Robinson has shown great variance in his production during this series. He has been under this number three times, and over in two games. Both of those overs came at home, and Robinson has averaged just 10.5 PRA in the two games in Miami. Foul trouble always lurks, as does a catastrophic 48.4% from the FT line. If the Knicks fall behind early, Robinson will see his minutes reduced. We project Robinson right at this number, but I’m projecting a big Miami win to translate to lower production for the Knicks starting center.
