Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The NBA playoffs are in full swing, with three critical Game 3’s Friday night. All three games have a point spread of less than six points, with two of the three matchups featuring home underdogs. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season and scalding hot in the playoffs. Please make sure you check back throughout the day for potential injury updates.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Bruce Brown Over 10.5 Points
(-105, BetMGM)
Bruce Brown is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 15.3 PPG over his last six contests. While he does not start, he played 30 minutes off the bench in the Nuggets Game 2 victory. Brown beat this number in two of the last three regular season games and scored 14 points in just 25 minutes in Game 1 of this series. Our FTN model projects Brown for 11.7 points, providing a 5% betting edge.
Dejounte Murray Under 20.5 Points
(-101, Caesars)
Dejounte Murray dominated the first two games, posting an average of 26.5 PPG. However, Boston’s defense has been even stronger on the road, as the NBA’s fifth-best Under team. Murray was just a 32.7% 3P shooter at home this season and is coming off a game where he shot an unsustainable 7-of-13 (53.8%) from deep.
I expect Boston to prioritize Murray’s offense and see him regressing to his 20.1 PPG average at home. Our FTN model projects Murray for 17.9 points, equating to a huge 11% edge. He averaged just 16.5 PPG in two regular-season matchups against the Celtics this season.
Mike Conley Over 12.5 Points
(-118, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Mike Conley beat this number in the last three regular season games against Denver, and posted 14 points at Denver in Minnesota’s Game 2 loss. In Game 1, Conley only registered eight points in the Nuggets 109-80 win. However, he only played 25 points as a result of the blowout.
This game only has a 2.5-point spread, as the Timberwolves will be desperate to avoid falling behind 3-0. In a close game, Conley should register at least 35 minutes, which would give him a superb chance to crest this number. He averaged 15.7 points in March and 16.5 points in April. With Denver focusing on Anthony Edwards after his 41-point explosion, look for Conley to play a huge role in this critical Game 3. We project Conley at 15.4 points, providing bettors a 7.7% edge.
