NBA Playoff Best Bets of the Day (5/4)

There’s only one game Thursday in the NBA, but it is a good one. The Los Angeles Lakers, holding a 1-0 lead over the Golden State Warriors, are going to try to make it two.

The FTN Betting Model does not have much of an early edge on sides or totals, so the Player Prop model is where we will be finding our plays. Here are my three best NBA bets for Thursday. 

Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet

Kevon Looney Over 13.5 Rebounds

(-115, BetMGM)

The numbers over the last six games are just ridiculous for Kevon Looney. The Warriors are playing that four out, one in lineup with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins on the perimeter. That leaves Looney to clean up the glass, and he’s been doing a superb job. He had 23 rebounds in Game 1 of this series. It was his fourth 20-rebound game in the last six. He averaged 18.5 rebounds per game during this run and cashed six straight rebounding overs. We are already in the black here for riding this rebounding streak, and this is not the day to get off of it. Looney has been a monster on the glass.

Best NBA Blocks Prop Bet

Anthony Davis Over 3.5 Blocks

(+140, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I know this seems like a large number, but Anthony Davis has been the human eraser in these playoffs. He’s had 7, 5, 3, 4, 2, 5 and 4 blocks in the last seven games. That means he has topped this number in five of seven and is averaging roughly 4.3 blocks per game. This number is +140, which seems a bit high for a guy on that kind of streak. I like AD’s points prop as well, but the best value on him is with the blocks.

Best NBA Points Prop Bet

LeBron James Under 25.5 Points

(-109, BetRivers)

In seven playoff games, LeBron James only topped this number once, and that was just 28 points. That’s not to say he is playing poorly — he’s been a rebounding machine, with double-doubles in five of the last seven games and just missing a sixth by one rebound. He’s also averaged 5 assists per game throughout the playoffs. It’s not like he is not scoring. He has topped 20 in six of the last seven, but he’s not getting big games. He will very likely go for more than 20 points, but I’m betting it comes up short of 26 again.