Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA playoffs role on with three more matchups. The 76ers and Nets start it off with Game 3 of that series as it heads back to Brooklyn. The Warriors and Kings head back to the bay area for Game 3 with the Warriors in an unfamiliar place down 2-0 and playing without Draymond Green. The Clippers and Suns top off the schedule as LA hosts Phoenix in a series tied up at 1 game apiece.
Unlike Wednesday’s group of games, we do not have a lot of key pieces on the injury report here. With the possible exception of Golden State, all the other teams have the key pieces in place. That does make the analysis a little easier to do, but also leaves many of the prop bet numbers in a range where they should be. I do not think injury news flow is a major mover of prices, so my concentration is finding spots where teams or players might be in a different role than we have seen, in order to extract that value. That is how I came up with my NBA best bets for the day.
Best NBA Rebounding Prop Bet
Ivica Zubac Under 10.5 Rebounds
(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Phoenix Suns are trying to get Ivica Zubac stuck in bad switch situations on the pick and roll. He can’t guard anyone on the perimeter for Phoenix and is too slow to recover to the middle when hedging, leaving Deandre Ayton open for easy buckets or rebounding paths. That’s if the guard with the ball does not just blow by him on the hedge and get to whatever spot on the floor they wanted anyway. The Clippers may start to give Zubac a few less minutes as defensively, he creates some problems for the Clippers. If so, this under could cash easily.
Best NBA 3-Point Prop Bet
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3-Pointers Made
(-129, BetRivers)
Stephen Curry has not really shot the ball that well in the first two games of the series. He is just 9-for-27 for a 33% rate from behind the arc. On the season he shot 42% from deep, so this is a big dropoff. The silver lining is that Steph did take 13 and 14 three-pointers in the first two games of this series. At 42%, you would project him for 5.5 three-pointers made given the volume of deep shots he is taking each game. Players tend to shoot better at home where they are more comfortable with the surroundings. I also expect Steph to be a little more selfish as the Warriors are playing shorthanded and do not want to lose at home to go down 3-0, a lead that could prove insurmountable.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Sacramento Kings +6
(-110, PointsBet)
The Golden State Warriors are down 2-0, but at least they are heading home for Game 3. The problem is they are nowhere near the team we remember them being. Draymond Green is suspended for this game. Jordan Poole is dealing with an injury and has played horrendously in the first two games. Andrew Wiggins is still rusty from his return after missing time with a family issue and now also has a shoulder to deal with. guys like Gary Payton, Donte DiVincenzo and Jonathon Kuminga are all in line for bigger minutes, which is not exactly a positive for the Warriors. Sacramento was at home, but they have looked like the better team in this series. I’m not saying they can beat the Warriors to go up 3-0, but I also do not think a shorthanded Warriors team blows them off the floor. I expect a close game here with a Warriors squad at way less than 100% healthy.
