NBA Game of the Day, 2/13: Thunder vs. Timberwolves

Thursday is the final set of games before the NBA All-Star break. This can be a dangerous night for bettors. Some teams will be pushing hard for one more win and others will be happy to start vacation a night early. Be careful, check the injury report often, and tread lightly as you step into the unknown that is Thursday’s NBA action.

Luckily, there is one game that looks fairly straightforward at this point, should be a great game, and is the only matchup we’ll see on a TNT Thursday. It features the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have been tearing through the league, against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have been better but yet to look as good as the team we saw last season.

Here’s my breakdown of each team and a handful of bets I’ve already made.

NBA Game of the Day: Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves

Current Line – Thunder -9, 225
My Projection – Thunder
Key Injuries – Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo are out. Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert are questionable.

The Timberwolves look like they are ready for a break, and one thankfully starts Friday. The Timberwolves started January as the 10 seed in the Western Conference and have moved all the way up to the 6 since then. It’s good to see them playing winning basketball, but injuries are starting to pile up for them. Five of their top players are either out or questionable to play due to injuries that have been lingering. The NBA regular season can be a brutal, 82-game marathon full of travel and few opportunities to rest and recover. With this being their last game before a week off, it looks like Minnesota might be starting vacation early. There’s a chance their secondary players will be thrust into starting duty against the best team in the league. Even if Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert end up playing, they will be less than 100% and facing a team that has played both guys well. This looks like a good spot to fade the Timberwolves and there’s a few ways I’ve chosen to do so.

The Thunder have the best record in the NBA so far, and I expect them to easily add to their success here. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the leading MVP candidate and won’t face a defender capable of stopping him. The Thunder have several good defenders to throw at Anthony Edwards should he play and too much athleticism for Rudy Gobert to play big minutes if he’s healthy. It’s a back-to-back spot for OKC as well, but most of their guys didn’t play big minutes Wednesday, and the roster is deep enough to replace anyone who might not be up to snuff. This is a great matchup for the Thunder and should be a comfortable win. Betting the full game spread is a decent look, but I’d rather lay the points with OKC early. The Thunder are one of the best first-quarter and first-half teams against the spread, especially at home. They build a lead early and salt it away late in the game. I’ll lay the points with them in the first 12 and 24 minutes as well as bet the Timberwolves team total under 106.5. OKC has the best defensive rating in the league with a four-point lead over the second-best team. If the injury report clears up for Minnesota, I like under 106.5. If Edwards can’t play, I love under 106.5.

Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this event and there are two in particular I like a lot.

Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 Made Threes

(-130, DraftKings Sportsbook/BetMGM)

Dort, aka “The Dorture Chamber,” aka “The Dortress,” is known as one of the very best defenders in the NBA. Despite being just 6-foot-4, he is capable of guarding every player on the floor well, even most centers. What he is not known for is how good of a three-point shooter he’s become. Dort shot 39% on about five attempts from deep per game last year and is up to over 41% on almost six attempts from deep this season. That is elite efficiency on pretty good volume. Our model at FTN projects him to make 2.5 threes and would price this deeper than -225, which makes it a good bet for us to make at -130 or better.

Aaron Wiggins Over 10.5 Points

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook/BetMGM)

With Cason Wallace out dealing with a shoulder injury, Aaron Wiggins has stepped into a bigger role. Wiggins is averaging over 15 field goal attempts in over 30 minutes per game since Wallace got hurt. He’s seen even more usage on the second night of back-to-back games, like this is. Everything is in place for him to put some big numbers and the books have yet to adjust to his new role. Our model at FTN projects him to score over 14 points and would price this deeper than -225. At -125, that’s an expected value of over 30% and a wager well worth our money.

You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.