First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
It’s time for TNT Thursday, and the final NBA game of the night features the second- and third-ranked teams in the Western Conference. The Houston Rockets head to Memphis to face their division rival, the Grizzlies, for the fourth and final time this season. The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly the best team in the conference and have the brightest future thanks to careful roster development, but the Rockets and Grizzlies are not far behind the Thunder.
There’s a good chance we see Memphis and Houston play each other in the playoffs this year and possibly for years to come. It takes time for teams to grow together into potential champions, and in this age of constant player movement, it’s rare to find two rosters that have played together for years. Although it may not be in 2025, one of these years we will see the Grizzlies and Rockets competing in the NBA Finals. For now, let’s enjoy tonight’s game and try to make some money betting on it.
Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies
Current Line – Grizzlies -4.5, 236.5
My Projection – Grizzlies 118, Rockets 117
Key Injuries – Jabari Smith Jr. is out. Alperen Sengun and Ja Morant are questionable.
Houston Rockets +4.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the best teams in the Western Conference all season. Last year was an unmitigated disaster. Memphis used 52 different starting lineups in its 82 regular season games. Although that’s not ideal, it did set the team up for success this season. The coaching staff knows how to adjust and balance lineups despite injuries. They have a deep roster full of talented players. Jaren Jackson Jr. can play center by himself and also move out on the perimeter if Memphis wants to play a center next to him. Desmond Bane is one of the best two-way players in the league providing good perimeter defense and elite shooting. The Grizzlies can play big, they can play small, they can play slow, they can play fast and coach Taylor Jenkins knows how to pull the right strings. As long as Ja Morant can stay off Instagram Live, the future is bright for a team that is 31-16 with the third-best record in the Western Conference. They have had success against almost every team in the league except one, the Houston Rockets.
These teams have played three times already, and Houston has won all three of those games, covering the spread in two of the three. Similar to the Grizzlies, the Rockets also have a deep, talented roster full of players that can be used flexibly. They are top 10 in offense, top 10 in defense and have the sixth-best net rating in the league. Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun have built on the success of last season while Amen Thompson is quickly becoming one of the more dominant defensive forces in the NBA. Houston has the best record against the spread on the road in the league, and I expect that to continue tonight. They covered twice already against Memphis, and the one loss was by half a point on a last-second three that didn’t impact the winner of the game. Our model at FTN makes this game a pick-em, and I make the spread just one point. Books are hanging 4.5, which is a very good bet if Morant can’t play and a great bet if Morant somehow misses the game.
Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this event, and there is one in particular I like a lot.
Ja Morant Under 22.5 Points
-106, DraftKings, FanDuel
Morant is listed as questionable with a sore shoulder, but he’s had that designation for the last few games and played through it. Of course, if he doesn’t play, then we just have our money returned. Ja can be one of the most electric scorers in the game, but whether it be because of the shoulder injury or just a change in his style of play, we have seen Morant score points in bunches lately. His field goal attempts have dropped and, of course, so has his point production. Our model projects just 18.7 points for Morant tonight and would price under 22.5 at deeper than -200. Give me the under for Morant’s points against a great defense.
You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.
