Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Monday’s eight-game slate around the NBA is very, very interesting. There isn’t that true fantasy superstar on the docket tonight. No Luka Doncic, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, etc. That makes roster construction a lot more intriguing than usual. Let’s break it all down.
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Sacramento Kings @ Cleveland Cavaliers
SAC -4, total: 225
There is a lot to like about this game for fantasy. You have two bad defenses and more specifically, two bad defenses that cannot stop opposing offenses in transition. That bodes well for both of these clubs. For Cleveland, I love this spot for Collin Sexton, who is coming off a monster outing against the Raptors on Sunday, scoring 36 points to go along with four assists and three rebounds. This matchup is about as good as it gets for Sexton, as the Kings rank dead last against all three of his archetypes on our advanced DVP tool; crafty finishers, scorer and primary ball-handler. Sacramento is also an awful team in transition, as you probably could have guessed. They are coughing up the second-most points per possession (1.23) and second-highest field goal percentage (58.3%) to opponents in transition. Meanwhile, Sexton is averaging just under 5.0 transition points per contest on the year, a top-15 mark in the NBA, while shooting over 60 percent off the play type. I also like Larry Nance, especially if Kevin Love remains sidelined. Nance is playing a ton of minutes right now and is racking up plenty of peripherals, sporting a 20 percent rebounding rate over the last week of play. His presence has hurt the overall ceiling of Jarrett Allen, though in a game like this, against such a bad defense, both are in play.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are also struggling to slow down opponents in transition, surrendering the sixth-most points per game off the play type at 21.0. That bodes extremely well for De'Aaron Fox, whose 5.5 transition points per game are good for the sixth-most in the NBA this season. Opponents are also getting out on the break a healthy 17.2 percent of the time against Cleveland this season, which is the second-highest mark in basketball. Fox is my favorite play from this team but in all honesty, I like the Kings' entire starting five in this game. Everyone is priced appropriately, at the least, while the Cavaliers have been a bottom basement defense over the last month or so. Richaun Holmes has been playing great lately and with Marvin Bagley sidelined, his minutes and rebounding is solidified. This is a solid matchup, as Cleveland is allowing the fifth-most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (1.20). Holmes, meanwhile, is averaging 5.1 points per game as the roll man this season, good for the sixth-most in basketball. And to make things even better, Cleveland is allowing a 47.9 percent field goal percentage on short mid-range shots this year, the second-worst mark in the league. Meanwhile, 39 percent of Holmes’ field goal attempts have come from that part of the floor, tied for the sixth-highest rate in basketball. I also like Tyrese Haliburton at $5,500 on DraftKings. His minutes are locked in with Bagley out.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -2.5, total: 226
We’ll have to keep an eye on his status for this game but if he’s active, you have to like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is way too cheap at just $8,300 on DK. That is too cheap of a price tag for someone with his usage and involvement, especially against a Minnesota team that ranks 29th against crafty finishers on the season. SGA is also still averaging 7.5 minutes of possession per game this season (seventh-most), as well as 5.88 seconds per touch (fourth-most). He is honestly the only player from this team that interests me unless Al Horford sits out again, but that seems unlikely after he rested on Sunday afternoon.
Minnesota has been a two-man show as of late, as Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are running the offense right now. Over the last week, Edwards is sporting a 34.1 percent usage rate while Towns’ is at a healthy 28.6 percent. During that span, both players are averaging at least 1.20 fantasy points per minute. This is a very good spot for KAT, facing an Oklahoma City team that is surrendering the second-most points per possession (1.07) and second-worst field goal percentage (56.9%) off post-ups this season, while Towns is averaging a solid 4.9 points per game from the post, good for the fourth-most in the NBA. Still under $10,000 on DK, I love his potential tonight. Edwards, meanwhile, is still at a fair $7,200 price tag and is seemingly a lock for 20-plus shot attempts right now, keeping him firmly in play.
Charlotte Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -5, total: 221.5
The Hornets and the NBA received awful news on Sunday, as burgeoning star LaMelo Ball has been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a fractured bone in his wrist. Ball was surely on his way to win Rookie of the Year, but Charlotte will now have to finish the rest of the season without him. In his absence, Devonte' Graham could retake his place in the starting lineup and, at $4,800 on DK, likely becomes one of the premier value plays on the slate. With LaMelo off the floor this season, Graham is sporting a solid 21.1% usage rate and 19 percent assist rate while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. Meanwhile, Terry Rozier is averaging just over a fantasy point per minute with Ball off the floor while sporting a 25 percent usage rate. He continues to spot-up a fair bit, averaging 5.2 points per game off the play type. The Spurs, meanwhile, are coughing up the fifth-highest field goal percentage to spot-up shooters this year (41.9%). Gordon Hayward, as well as Rozier and Ball, will likely see upticks in peripherals with Ball sidelined, as the rookie was averaging 10 rebounding chances per game. All three are extremely in play on this slate.
For the Spurs, I like Keldon Johnson at $5,900. After returning from the COVID list, Johnson is back to playing his normal minutes and has been producing, especially on the boards. Johnson has also been producing as a spot-up shooter, averaging 5.6 such points per game, good for the 11th-most in basketball. Charlotte, meanwhile, is coughing up the most spot-up points per game on the year (38.1). He’s my favorite player from the Spurs, though Jakob Poeltl is also still viable at just over $6,000 on DK. With LaMarcus Aldridge out of the equation, Poeltl is locked into strong minutes and faces a Hornets team that is surrendering the second-most rebounds per game to opposing centers this season (16.6).
Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets
TOR -8.5, total: 222.5
Will the Rockets ever win another game? They’ll have their chance against the Raptors, but they could be without Christian Wood, who has been back for three games now. However, he just played 36 minutes on Sunday and has yet to play a back-to-back since returning, meaning he could potentially sit out this game. If he does, I still only really want to play John Wall at a relatively cheap $7,100 price tag. Over the last four weeks with Wood off the floor, Wall’s usage rate is sitting at 34.9 percent while Victor Oladipo’s is at 33.6 percent. Oladipo is taking a ton of shots right now, as the Rockets are showcasing him for a trade. That makes him both intriguing and risky as a fantasy option with the trade deadline just days away.
For the Raptors, we’ll stick with the theme of transition scoring. Norman Powell quietly leads the team in transition points per game this season at 5.1 points per contest, a number that is also good for the eighth-most in all of basketball. Toronto is at full strength again, but that hasn’t stopped Powell from playing 33-plus minutes and taking plenty of shots. Houston, meanwhile, is allowing more transition points per game than any team in basketball this season (23.4), while opponents are getting out in transition a league-leading 18.2 percent of the time against the Rockets. I like Powell and I also like the $7,600 price tag on Fred VanVleet. If choosing between him and Kyle Lowry, give me FVV and the $500 savings on DraftKings.
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -5.5, total: 229
The Bucks have listed Giannis Antetokounmpo as doubtful for this game with a sprained knee. This will obviously make both Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday very popular plays on this slate, especially at their very affordable price tags. With Giannis off the floor this season, Middleton and Holiday see usage rate bumps of over seven percent, a massive, massive jump. Middleton is averaging 1.36 fantasy points per minute in the split, while Holiday is right behind him at 1.27 fantasy points per minute. Middleton is a great play at $7,600 on DK, but it is going to be especially difficult to get away from Holiday at his $6,800 price tag. Meanwhile, you could take a shot on someone like Bobby Portis, whose rebounding rate jumps up to a whopping 35 percent with Giannis off the floor. The addition of P.J. Tucker could complicate things a bit but at $3,700 on DK, Portis only needs to play 22-25 minutes and could absolutely crush given his efficiency.
Indiana isn’t too high on my radar tonight. I believe that both Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon are fine at their respective price tags, however, Caris LeVert has cut into the usage rates of both players since making his Pacers debut five games ago. Sabonis is still averaging the second-most touches per game on the season (100.1), but this game will be slower with Giannis out, and I just like other players a bit better on this slate. The same exact thing can be said for Brogdon but to an even higher degree, as there are plenty of really strong point guard options around his price range.
Boston Celtics @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -2, total: 220.5
The Celtics will be without Kemba Walker for this game, opening up even more usage for both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who make for very strong options on this slate. With Kemba off the floor this season, Tatum’s usage rate is hovering around 33 percent, while Brown is right behind him at 31.7 percent. This should also help Marcus Smart, who is at a nice $5,600 price tag on DK. He’s averaging just under a fantasy point per minute with Walker off the court this year. Finally, don’t sleep on Daniel Theis, who has been very productive over his last few games. If Tristan Thompson is forced to miss another game, Theis remains a very strong play value at $4,800. He’s sporting a 23 percent rebounding rate with Thompson off the floor this season and should be in line for 30-33 minutes against a bottom-three post defense in the Grizzlies.
Speaking of Memphis, I only have interest in Jonas Valanciunas from this team. He has been great as of late, scoring at least 38 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. This is a sneaky good matchup, as the Celtics are coughing up the third-most points per game off putbacks this season (7.0). Meanwhile, JoVal is averaging the third-most putback points per game on the year at 3.7.
Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls
UTA -9, total: 228
Rudy Gobert is questionable to play in this game with a hip injury. If he sits, we will get more value in the form of Derrick Favors at $3,500 on DraftKings. I’d imagine he’d enter the starting lineup and with Gobert and his league-leading 23.2 rebounding chances off the floor this season, Favors’ rebounding rate jumps all the way up to 32 percent, while averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute in the split. Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell has shown that ceiling over the last two games and could easily show it again tonight against a Bulls team that ranks 28th against primary ball handlers, 28th against dimers and 26th against scorers. They are also surrendering a league-leading 24.0 points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll, which bodes well for Mitchell, who currently ranks sixth in the league in points per game as the primary ball-handler out of the pick and roll (10.3). Of course, that makes Mike Conley viable here, too, though he’s more of a cash game option for me. Finally, Jordan Clarkson could get up to 30 minutes if the Jazz blow this game open and we’ve already talked about how bad the Bulls are at defending scoring guards.
For the Bulls, there have been some changes to their starting lineup. Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young have started the last couple of games over Coby White and Wendell Carter Jr. and if that continues on Monday, I think Satoransky is viable at $4,400 on DraftKings. Zach LaVine is always the top option from this team and if Gobert is out, driving lanes suddenly open up for him, while his $8,400 price tag is a bit too cheap if you ask me.
Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -6.5, total: 225
He hasn’t reached 50 fantasy points in any of his last five games, but it is very difficult not to like Trae Young at just $8,800, regardless of the matchup. Of course, this matchup is definitely enhanced with the Clippers missing Patrick Beverley from their backcourt. I also have no issues going to Clint Capela, who is back in the lineup and grabbing plenty of boards, per usual. His 23.3 rebounding chances per game are tied with Gobert for the league-lead and the Clippers interior can be had, especially with Serge Ibaka sidelined. John Collins, meanwhile, is extremely risky. For starters, Capela is back and Collins is actually more expensive than Atlanta’s center. Secondly, the Hawks have had no issues playing Danilo Gallinari over Collins at times this season, which has led to plenty of games where he’s hovered around 27-29 minutes. And finally, Collins is reportedly on the trade block, which means it is possible he gets traded at any moment.
For the Clippers, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard remain too cheap on DraftKings tonight and people still probably won’t play them as much as they should, especially George at just $8,200. This matchup is perfectly fine for both players and with this slate lacking that elite superstar fantasy player, Kawhi and PG become more enticing than usual. I also like Ivica Zubac with Ibaka still sidelined. He only played 25 minutes last game, but the Clippers blew out the Hornets while Charlotte also went small with P.J. Washington at the five, forcing Los Angeles to play small. That won’t be an issue here against Capela and Collins in the frontcourt, which should result in Zubac returning to that 30-33 minute range.
