Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are 10 total NBA games on tap for Sunday, with six of them falling on the evening main DFS slate, the focus of this article. Of these six games, only two carry implied totals north of 220 points, making it incredibly important to condense your player pool and get exposure to the environments that should breed production.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -8.5, total: 245.5
The highest total from the slate comes from this game and it’s far from surprising, as the Wizards are allowing the most points per game in the NBA (120.2), while the Nets are only three teams behind them (115.4).
Both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are once again viable, with my lean being Westbrook in a vacuum simply due to recent form. The issue is that there’s a $1,400 price difference on DraftKings and a $1,500 price difference on FanDuel. This should drive ownership toward Beal, who is an incredibly strong play at his price as well.
Outside of the Washington studs, you can get away with some ancillary pieces here given the game environment. Rui Hachimura is my favorite, averaging 17.0 points and 7.7 rebounds over his last three games on 14.3 shot attempts and 37.8 minutes per game. The coach-speak about him taking more shots was clearly not smoke and mirrors. Alex Len is also a deep tournament dart, as he’s topped 20 minutes in two of his last four games and takes on a team that allows centers to rack up production in a hurry. At the minimum price on FanDuel, he could potentially get there in one rotation in this matchup.
On the flip side of this game, there’s a similar debate between James Harden and Kyrie Irving to the Westbrook versus Beal conversation. My lean here is Irving, as he’s almost $2,000 cheaper on both sites but when active, has been just as productive as Harden. I love the idea of getting exposure to this game by foregoing both expensive studs and opting to pair the underpriced duo in Irving and Beal, giving you as much upside as two $11,000 players but for an extreme discount. With that said, Harden is still obviously very much in play and one of the top overall plays on the slate.
Blake Griffin is also expected to make his Nets debut on Sunday and at $5,000 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel, he could become extremely viable depending on what type of minutes restriction he’s facing. If he’s starting and reported to get anything more than 25-27 minutes, I’ll love him in this matchup. Because of his return, it muddies the waters a bit for Jeff Green and even DeAndre Jordan when the Nets opt to run a small-ball lineup, making both the latter players easier to fade Sunday.
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
TOR -7.5, total: 218.5
This is one of, if not the least appealing game on the main slate. With Toronto’s rotation regaining health, they should have no problem handling this Cavs team while distributing the usage on offense in a way that becomes frustrating for DFS players.
Of the studs on the Raptors, Pascal Siakam checks in as my top option, as he’s simply too cheap at $7,200 on DraftKings. He’s posted a 25.5% usage rate and 1.11 DKP/min with the team healthy, giving him more than enough upside against a team that struggles as much in transition as the Cavs do. Both Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry are viable tournament options, but with so much of my attention at the guard spots going to Beal and Irving, it’s hard to justify them in single-entry formats.
Norman Powell is another elite tournament play, as he continues to operate as one of the primary scorers on offense, posting at least 30 points in two of his last three games. Chris Boucher could also see an extended run if we think this game blows out against a beatable frontcourt.
For the Cavs, the only player that I have any interest in is Larry Nance. He left a sour taste in people’s mouths after a dud last game, but at $5,800, he’s still too cheap. He’s seen 34 or more minutes in three consecutive games, topping 34 DK points in two of those three. He’s safe enough for cash games and comes with tournament-winning upside.
Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons
CHI -3, total: 217
What do you get when you have two bad defenses? Hopefully, fantasy production. Unfortunately, this 217-point total leads us to believe that the production may be hard to come by.
As always, if opting for a Bulls player, it’s hard to get away from Zach LaVine. Not only does he sport a 30.6% usage rate, 23.1% assist rate, and 1.27 DKP/min this season, but the Pistons rank in the bottom half of the league against all four of his player traits. Those are dimer (16th), scorer (17th), primary ball handler (20th), and crafty finisher (24th), per advanced DvP. Tomas Satoransky is the most reliable bet right now outside of LaVine, as his $4,500 price tag has yet to catch up to the fact that he’s averaged over 30 minutes per game over his last four games as a starter.
For the Pistons, this is a spot that I want to target Mason Plumlee in GPPs. Even in a matchup with the Bulls, he should come in relatively low-owned. That would be a mistake, as the Bulls rank 26th against rebounders and 28th against skilled centers. It’s also a spot to target both Delon Wright for his underpriced salary at guard, and Jerami Grant, though Grant has been volatile enough lately where he’s hard to trust in cash-game formats.
Saddiq Bey is another viable Pistons player on FanDuel where he’s still only $4,300 after consecutive games over 35 FD points. While it’s not necessarily wise to expect another 20-point outing, he still has enough scoring upside and stock upside on FanDuel where he becomes a bargain.
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
PHI -1, total: 215.5
The Sixers come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back, and while Ben Simmons sat out Saturday, I have a hard time seeing him miss back-to-back games with such a minor ailment.
If he sits out again, however, we can expect Shake Milton to draw another start after logging over 35 minutes and posting 28 points on Saturday. This would also continue to open up usage for Tobias Harris, who was two assists away from a triple-double Saturday. The issue, however, is the fact that this is a brutal matchup. Whether Simmons is in or not, I have a hard time having an interest in getting more than one piece of this team in my lineup. I also think it’s completely reasonable to fade the team and not feel the need to roster them simply because of the injury fallout.
The Knicks are also dealing with a plethora of injuries, as Derrick Rose remains out, while Elfrid Payton, Immanuel Quickley, and Mitchell Robinson are all questionable for Sunday. If Payton and/or Quickley gets ruled out, it would immediately boost the stock for the one (if any) that’s active. If both are out, we would once again see Julius Randle take over the duties of being a primary ball-handler. In his last game, he posted an absurd 70.8% assist rate, giving him an astronomical ceiling. This would also make Alec Burks viable, as he posted a 27.3% usage rate last game with all three point guards out.
Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trail Blazers
DAL -2, total: 230.5
This is a game that we had the privilege of seeing two slates ago, resulting in a 125-119 win for the Blazers. As expected, Luka Doncic was downright brilliant. He posted 38 points, nine assists and nine rebounds on 15-of-27 shooting and continued his torrid stretch. He checks in as my top overall spend up on the slate and because of all of the available value, he’s not too hard to fit alongside one of Beal or Irving.
If fading Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis is great leverage. He only shot 3-11 last game against the Blazers, which is form that we should expect to rebound. If you expect another down game for Porzingis, it would make sense to have interest in Tim Hardaway, who picked up the extra volume in his steed, going 9-of-14 from the field for 25 raw points last game.
Maxi Kleber is the ancillary piece that I have the most interest in, particularly on FanDuel. His $3,800 price tag hasn’t moved since he posted over 29 FDP last game and he’s locked into starter’s minutes (34-plus last game).
Damian Lillard is still viable on the other side of this game, but the return of CJ McCollum should continue to limit him enough where I won’t prioritize him at his price over the three aforementioned guards in this article. He is, however, a great way to differentiate your exposure to this game if you are not playing Doncic.
Speaking of McCollum, he saw almost 28 minutes of action last game against Dallas and went 11-23 from the field, logging the most shot attempts on the team. While I still expect Lillard to lead the charge from a volume standpoint, it’s great to see that McCollum’s upside we’ve become familiar with has returned. Because of these two soaking up so much usage for this team, I don’t have any interest in the ancillary pieces with so much value elsewhere on the slate.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -9.5, total: 214
While the Lakers step into an incredibly difficult matchup, it’s going to be hard not to find some value here with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis out.
The obvious beneficiaries in the starting lineup are Dennis Schroder and Kyle Kuzma, who will likely step into the lineup to replace James. Even in a tough matchup, getting both for under $7,000 on DraftKings is a steal considering the amount of opportunity that has been vacated. Montrezl Harrell is also viable off the bench, as he’s averaged 20.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game over his last four games.
Talen Horton-Tucker is perhaps my favorite value piece on this team. While the sample size is small, in his 28.6 minutes without both studs this season, THT has posted a 27.3% usage rate and a 25% assist rate. For nearly minimum price, he’s an elite value and will likely be quiet popular.
For the Suns, this is now an extremely exploitable matchup, but given the severe blowout concerns, this is a team that I am going to be full-fading in anything less than 20-max formats on this slate. In those formats or bigger, I am fine getting exposure to Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, and Devin Booker. I would also make a point to set a rule so that I do not pair Ayton and Booker, seeing that their ceiling games this season have seemed to come at the expense of one another.
