NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Jan. 31

Sundays are typically days where NBA games are staggered throughout the day, and this Sunday is no different. The NBA main DFS slate has four games on it, locking at 7 p.m. ET, leaving the two afternoon games for a separate slate.

Vegas data listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.

(Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!)

Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers

No Vegas data posted at the time of writing.

For the third consecutive game, Joel Embiid is listed as questionable. While he’s played through his back tightness in the first two games, it’s still a status worth monitoring, especially on a small slate. If he’s able to suit up (which looks like the more likely outcome), he immediately slides in as a top play on the slate, as he’s still priced under $10,000 despite averaging over 56 DK points over his last five games.

If Embiid sits, however, we can default to both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons, who are both underpriced for this potential scenario. On a four-game slate, the case can be made for rostering them even if Embiid is active. Dwight Howard would also become an elite value, posting 1.1 FPPM with Embiid out with a 24.3% rebounding rate.

For the Pacers, while Philly isn’t a matchup to go out of the way to attack, things shift a bit on a four-game slate. With Doug McDermott questionable, there’s a chance we see more minutes for Jeremy Lamb, who’s posted a usage rate over 20% this season and sits at only $5,200. This could also lead to more minutes for Justin Holiday, who’s $4,900 price tag may lead to him being a popular value play if McDermott sits.

The (potential) absence of Embiid would also benefit Domantas Sabonis, who ranks second in the NBA in touches per game (100.4). He’s not a full fade if Embiid is in, given the fact that it’s a four-game slate, but if Embiid is out, it’d be hard to get away from Sabonis. This would also benefit Myles Turner, who would have a ton more room to operate around the rim. 

Malcolm Brogdon is a viable play at $8,300, but dealing with Ben Simmons’ defense is no joke. This game should stay competitive and Brogdon should be a key part, but he’s not someone I will go out of my way to roster.

Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -5.5, total: 220.5

The injury news piles up for this slate, as OG Anunoby has already been ruled out while Norman Powell is doubtful. In this same scenario last game, it was Terence Davis who drew the start, albeit playing only 19 minutes. At $3,500, however, he becomes viable once again given the point-per-minute upside we’ve seen in the past. He may garner ownership as well, which could make Yuta Watanabe an elite pivot after seeing over 24 minutes and posting 27 DK points last game.

This also benefits Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam, who are all once again far too cheap at $7,700 or below. The one Raptors player that I’m not as high on Sunday is Chris Boucher. While he remains viable in large-field GPPs strictly based on his ceiling, he’s only seen 26 total minutes over his last two games, making this a situation I prefer to avoid until his minutes stabilize.

For Orlando, I will continue to target Nikola Vucevic in this price range. While the matchup isn’t beautiful, he’s averaged 1.37 FPPM on the season and over the last two weeks in particular, has seen his usage rate jump to 29.2% while posting both a rebounding and assist rate over 15%. Over that same span, Aaron Gordon has seen a 30% assist rate and 1.11 FPPM. While the return of Evan Fournier has induced a bit of volatility, he’s been underpriced in response to two consecutive duds (especially on FanDuel), considering the fact that he still has a ceiling of 40-50 fantasy points. If you feel emotionally prepared to go back to that well, I’ll go with you.

Speaking of Fournier, he’s really the only other Magic player that I have any interest in, as he’s posted an elite 27.6% usage rate over those said two weeks and the absence of OG Anunoby and Norman Powell could see him going head-to-head with backups for most of the evening.

Brooklyn Nets @ Washington WIzards

BKN -8.5, total: 224.5

The biggest news of the slate that needs to be monitored is the status of James Harden, who is currently listed as questionable. This would obviously open up a heap of usage for both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant to take advantage of and with both underpriced, the argument can be made for rostering them both. In terms of touches, it would make sense to see Irving operate as the primary ball-handler most of the game sans Harden, but the two-man game with him and Durant would be the go-to all game long. Joe Harris would also see a few more shots, making him a viable, yet un-sexy play on a four-game slate.

This would also open up some value in Bruce Brown, who drew the start for Durant last game and shot 9-11 in 24 minutes, and Landry Shamet. The latter of the two would still be off of my radar, but Brown would be an elite value at only $3,800 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel.

The matchup with the Wizards is always one to target for bigs, making DeAndre Jordan a viable play, especially on FanDuel at only $4,900, as the Wizards rank 20th against rebounders and 26th against rim protectors per advanced DvP.

Running the Nets back with Bradley Beal or Russell Westbrook makes complete sense on this slate. Beal has led the entire NBA in usage rate this season and while Westbrook is a frustrating real-life player, his fantasy production cannot be denied, as he remains underpriced. 

Outside of those two, Rui Hachimura and Robin Lopez are my top targets from the Wizards, as the Nets have gotten absolutely decimated in the paint since trading away Jarrett Allen, allowing the most points per game in the paint in the NBA. They would both also be great ways to get different on a short slate.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

CLE -3.5, total: 219

Any team that plays the Timberwolves will have my attention, especially on a four-game slate. The backcourt for Cleveland is entirely viable, as Collin Sexton is as sure of a bet for 20 raw points as anyone in the league this season, while Darius Garland is finally seeing his minutes catch up to speed while his price lags behind, making him an elite (and likely popular) play.

The real gem, however, lies in Andre Drummond. He has yet to see more than 29 minutes since the trade for Jarrett Allen, but that hasn’t hindered his production. Over the last two weeks, Drummond has posted 1.55 DK points per minute with a 31.9% usage rate and 31.1% rebounding rate. Because of the playing time, we’ve seen his price come down to $8,400 when, in reality, it should be $1,000 more considering his production. The Timberwolves rank 25th against rim protectors and 19th against rebounders, setting Drummond up for a ceiling game once again.

I have far less interest in Minnesota against a Cavs team that surprisingly ranks in the top-10 in defensive rating (108.2) this season while playing at the second-slowest pace in the NBA (98.11). If pressing to find a run-back, D’Angelo Russell makes the most sense if reports come out that he won’t have a minutes restriction, as he was limited to 25 minutes in his return on Friday. Anthony Edwards also makes a ton of sense as a value play, as he’s averaged over 25 minutes per game over the last six games and drew his first career start on Friday. The arrow is pointing straight up for the trigger-happy rookie and with Jarrett Culver ruled out, there are only more minutes vacated for him to soak up.