Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After 12-plus hours of NBA basketball Monday’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day, we’re presented with only a pair of games Tuesday, as the vast majority of the team will get a breather in preparation for a big Wednesday slate. Regardless, the DFS grind marches on and so do the game-by-game breakdowns.
Vegas odds are derived from DraftKings Sportsbook. All totals from the time of writing are posted. With that said, some games will not have totals posted if there is outstanding injury news.
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets (-9.5, 220.5 total)
Pace: OKC (11th), DEN (25th)
Defensive rating: OKC (18th), DEN (25th)
$8,700 for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on a full slate would have me questioning whether I want to pursue him in cash or single-entry formats, but a two-game slate makes this an easy decision. Averaging 25.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists over his last five games, SGA steps into a game against a defense that ranks 29th against scorers and 21st against primary ball handlers (per advanced DvP), making him a phenomenal target.
The rest of the Thunder team are appealing options when hunting for value on this slate, as the Nuggets are currently a bottom-six team in defensive rating. Isaiah Roby makes for the best point-per-dollar option here, even against Nikola Jokic, as Al Horford is set to miss his third consecutive game. Over his last two starts, Roby has averaged 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in just under 25 minutes per game — all extremely serviceable for $4,100 on a two-game slate. The absence of Horford should also continue to open up more rebounding opportunities for Darius Bazley, Luguentz Dort and Hamidou Diallo. Of the three, Dort and Bazley present similar security in terms of playing time, as they should both fall in the 26- to 30-minute range. Diallo profiles more as a tournament option.
Because of the slate size, George Hill becomes a perfectly viable play at $4,300, but it’d be irresponsible to expect 30 minutes from the veteran. His floor is low, but he provides enough offense where he could get there at his price.
On the other side of this game, it’s almost impossible to get away from Jokic on a two-game slate, despite the hefty price. He’s leading the NBA in touches per game while posting a 28.7% usage rate, 43.8% assist rate and 19.4% rebounding rate all en route to logging 1.64 DK points per minute. He’s the only stud to spend up for, and a player I strongly advise fitting into your lineups.
It makes sense to pair him with Jamal Murray given the fact that a staple in their offense is the dribble hand-off together, but he carries more volatility than someone like SGA on the other side of the game. Even with the volatility, his $7,300 price tag is hard to pass up.
Of the value options on Denver, Gary Harris makes the most sense. His minutes are incredibly secure for his price and while his production can be frustrating, the playing time alone makes him a viable option at $4,400 on such a thin slate. P.J. Dozier can be approached with the same rationale, as he’s topped 22 minutes in three consecutive games. While he’ll never be a high-usage player, you don’t need much at only $3,900.
The forwards are the difficult position to dissect for the Nuggets, even with Michael Porter out. Because Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green essentially split 48 minutes, they’re two I would prefer to avoid on this slate. Will Barton should continue to soak up a lot of Porter’s voided minutes and at $5,700, he makes sense with his ceiling, but his floor is low.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz (-6, 217.5 total)
Pace: NOP (26th), UTA (24th)
Defensive rating: NOP (17th), UTA (6th)
After a shift in their starting lineup last game, the Pelicans could see yet another shift Tuesday with Lonzo Ball on track to return to the lineup. This would almost certainly spell an end to Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s one-game stint as the starting point guard, but he’s certainly solidified a spot in the rotation. Should Ball return, Alexander-Walker becomes nothing more than a GPP play at his elevated price ($5,400) considering the fact that moving back to 18-22 minutes would be well within the range of outcomes.
While his popularity is sure to take a massive hit, Brandon Ingram’s ($9,100) and Zion Williamson’s ($7,900) shouldn’t. Ingram holds the higher usage rate (29.3% to 28.6%) and production clip (1.18 to 1.12 DKP/min), but the $1,200 price difference makes Williamson the better option. This, in turn, makes Ingram an elite tournament play with ownership likely going to Williamson, Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander and Murray all surrounding his price.
Ball and Eric Bledsoe would both be OK plays, but I can’t call them anything more than that given their volatility and the options elsewhere at the position. Josh Hart lost his starting spot last game, but still makes for a fine value option given his ability to rack up peripheral production.
On the flip side of the ball, the Jazz should be one of the higher-owned teams on the slate for once, it just took a two-game slate for this to be the case. Joe Ingles remains questionable for the game, which would mean more opportunity for Jordan Clarkson should he sit again. His $6,500 price may cause a bit of sticker-shock, but his 26% usage rate and 1.28 DKP/min production clip sans Ingles makes him worth the price.
Donovan Mitchell is hard to argue with on this slate given the fact that he’s the team-leader in usage rate (31.8% without Ingles) and should lead the team in touches. It’s also impossible to write-off Rudy Gobert on a two-game slate, especially in a game against a team that presents a ton of size to oppose him in Williamson and Steven Adams. His $7,600 feels a touch cheap, making him my second-favorite center on the slate behind Jokic. If you want to get different, running a two-center build with the two anchors your lineup in a way that many may not do. He may see a few extra minutes as well as Derrick Favors continues to work through some soreness in his right knee.
Outside of those three, Bojan Bogdanovic and Mike Conley are viable because of the slate size, but Bogdanovic’s one-dimensional game makes him more of a GPP play than a cash play, while Conley will be harder to justify with Jamal Murray only a touch more expensive. Regardless, his minutes are secure and he’s a good bet for 10-15 shot attempts per game.
