Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Much like the NBA DFS main slate Saturday, Sunday presents us with a four-game slate around the league, with two games left off on the early/all-day slate. As always, this breakdown will cover the main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Vegas odds are derived from DraftKings SportsBook. All totals from the time of writing are posted. With that said, some games will not have totals posted if there is outstanding injury news.
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Philadelphia 76ers (-3) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (219.5 total)
Pace: PHI (4th), OKC (13th)
Defensive rating: PHI (4th), OKC (18th)
The 76ers are on the second leg of a back-to-back, and with Joel Embiid sitting Saturday to tend to some knee pain, it would make sense to see him back in the lineup Sunday. If this is the case, he’s easily one of the most mispriced players on the slate at $9,400 on DraftKings. The Thunder are bottom-seven in the league in post-up points allowed per game, right where Embiid thrives, as they have literally no size to combat him down low. If he’s out again, Dwight Howard would become the default option for a second consecutive slate. In his start on Saturday, Howard played just under 34 minutes and grabbed 18 rebounds, making him an elite value at $4,800 if Embiid is out.
If Embiid is active, it’s hard to target Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris with confidence, but the fact that this is only a four-game slate makes them viable tournament options given their upside. The same can be said for Shake Milton at $5,800, who would be a much stronger play sans Embiid. Both he and Tyrese Maxey should continue to see more run with Seth Curry out but are lineup-fillers at best unless we see some surprise inactives.
While this is a pace-up spot for the Thunder, the Sixers defense is one I typically don’t go out of my way to attack. That said, there’s some opportunity on the Thunder side of this game with Al Horford ruled out. It would make sense to see Isaiah Roby slide into the starting lineup again, as he has a 13.8% rebounding rate and posts just about a fantasy point per minute with Horford out.
Shai Gilgeus-Alexander has been on an absolute tear (50-plus DK points in three of his last five games) and should see an incremental rebounding boost with Horford out, making him a fine tournament option. Luguentz Dort and Darius Bazley should see incremental boosts in that department as well. Dort, however, is the better value option, especially coming off of his best game of the season so far.
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets (-1.5, 219 total)
Pace: UTA (22nd), DEN (25th)
Defensive rating: UTA (5th), DEN (24th)
On a slate void of many top-tier studs, Nikola Jokic finds himself as the only player north of $10,000 on DraftKings ($11,200). This could naturally push ownership up to Jokic as the only stud, and while he’s an elite play in all formats, he’s not necessarily a must-play on this slate given the abundance of mid-tier options. Regardless, I won’t argue with you for rostering a player with a 28.9% usage rate, 43.9% assist rate and 19.4% rebounding rate.
This is also a spot that we can target Jamal Murray at $7,400, as the point guard spot is one to attack with Utah. He profiles more as a GPP play, however, given his peripheral volatility this season. Will Barton is another strong play from the Denver side with Michael Porter out again, as he’s a good candidate to see 30-plus minutes and comes into this game red hot from the field, averaging 19.5 points per game over his last two games while shooting over 50% from three over that span.
Denver’s defense has been a sieve this season, making the Jazz a worthwhile team to target, especially considering the fact that they typically come in rather underowned. Donovan Mitchell is the top overall option, as he leads the team in usage rate and takes on a Nuggets team that ranks 29th against scorers, 23rd against primary ball handlers and 17th against crafty finishers, per advanced DvP.
Rudy Gobert also makes for a strong play, as his sub-$8k price makes him one of the safest plays on the slate given the fact that he’s seen 35-plus minutes in his last four games against the Nuggets and will likely be needed to counter the size of Jokic.
Outside of those two, however, it’s hard to endorse the Jazz players at their prices. Jordan Clarkson makes some sense with Joe Ingles ruled out, but at his price, you need an efficient offensive outing, which presents a bit more risk than I’d like to stomach. Bojan Bogdanovic is in the same boat, but for a cheaper tag. Both are better left for tournaments but are definitely viable on a four-game slate.
New Orleans Pelicans (-2) @ Sacramento Kings (227.5 total)
Pace: NOP (26th), SAC (9th)
Defensive rating: NOP (12th), SAC (30th)
This will likely be the most targeted game on the slate and for good reason, given the slate-high total and 2-point spread.
With Lonzo Ball ruled out, we can continue to expect Zion Williamson (30.6% usage rate without Ball), Brandon Ingram (28.1%) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to continue to be the primary beneficiaries. Both Ingram and Williamson are viable in all formats. Alexander-Walker, however, needs to be handled with caution. With Eric Bledsoe returning last game, he was knocked back to 20 minutes off the bench, making him a much riskier investment, even at his price.
Speaking of Bledsoe, he makes for a fine play at $5,500 on a four-game slate, but he’s demonstrated a painfully low floor this season. There are other options around his price range that I prefer, but if this is your only way to get exposure to this game, then he makes for a fine piece to round your lineup out, as he’s still averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute with Ball out.
Unlike last season, the Pelicans are a tougher team to target given the fact that they’re in the top-half of the league defensively while running at a bottom-five pace. De'Aaron Fox is still viable at $7,900, however, as he leads the rotation players with a 28.7% usage rate.
The viability of the rest of the team hinges on the status of Marvin Bagley, who is currently questionable with a sore left wrist. If he ends up sitting out, that would give a bump to Richaun Holmes and Nemanja Bjelica, the latter of which would become a viable value play at only $3,200. If Bagley is active, however, he makes for a great play at his $5,400 price tag after finally topping the 30-minute mark in his last game.
Hassan Whiteside is also questionable and while his absence would only free up roughly 10-12 frontcourt minutes, that would provide incremental boosts to the trio listed above.
Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5, 221.5 total)
Pace: IND (16th), LAC (28th)
Defensive rating: IND (7th), LAC (25th)
Targeting the Pacers is one of the most straightforward things to break down: Get exposure to one or both of Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon. Both have been putting up all-star numbers this season and see a bump across the board with Victor Oladipo off the court (now traded to Houston). Of the two, I prefer the savings on Brogdon ($1,100 cheaper), but it’s impossible to argue with either, as they both have usage rates north of 27% and post over 1.25 FPPM with Oladipo and T.J. Warren off the court.
In terms of usage bumps, however, Aaron Holiday is the biggest beneficiary without those players, as he sees a 4.2% bump in usage rate. His inefficiency leaves a lot to be desired, but at $4,200 on a four-game slate, he’s one of the more viable value plays on the slate. If you’re uncomfortable with Holiday, you could spend $100 more and opt for Doug McDermott, who’s seen a usage rate over 21% without Oladipo and T.J. Warren out and posts just shy of a fantasy point per minute.
If you want to get really different in a GPP, Myles Turner is a fine center option as he’s posted 1.22 FPPM without these players on the court with three double-doubles in his last four games, but with more reliable options at the position, I’ll take my chances elsewhere in cash and single-entry contests.
On the other side of the game, both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George find themselves in the mid-to-high $9,000 range. Both have been playing incredible basketball and if you believe that this game will stay close, they make for elite targets at their prices, as they’re both averaging over 1.28 FPPM with usage rates over 28%. Of the two, George will likely be more popular.
Outside of the two key cogs, however, it’s hard to love the rest of the Clippers team, leading me to trust value options elsewhere on the slate.
