Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With the NBA season set to (finally!) start at the end of July, the FTN team is breaking down every division with an eye toward DFS possibilities, ways to approach using each team and best strategies.
Today, the Northwest Division:
Note: No Minnesota Timberwolves for the restart.
Denver Nuggets
Coach: Michael Malone
Record, current position: 43-22, First in Northwest Division, third in the Western Conference
Projected finish: 48-25
Players not in bubble: N/A
Projected starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Bench: Monte Morris, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Will Barton, Noah Vonleh, Troy Daniels
Team pace: 97.66 (29th ranked)
Team defensive rating: 108.8 (12th ranked)
Team offensive rating: 112 (ninth ranked)
Schedule breakdown: Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trailblazers, Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Toronto Raptors, PLAYOFFS.
Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic has recovered from COVID-19 and is ready for the restart. I consider the Nuggets to be one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and they are very capable of making a deep run in the playoffs. If they didn’t have to make it past the Lakers, Clippers and Bucks, I would make them the favorites. If the guards can get hot and stay hot, they have a chance for an upset, but probably not two upsets to secure a title for Denver. Their defense is above league average (12th ranked); however, that won’t be enough against the big three teams mentioned above, who all outrank them.
Portland Trailblazers
Coach: Terry Stotts
Record, current position: 29-37, Fourth in Northwest division, ninth in the Western Conference
Projected finish: 32-42
Players not in bubble: N/A
Projected starters: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic
Bench: Anfernee Simons, Gary Trent, Mario Hezonja, Carmelo Anthony, Hassan Whiteside, Zach Collins
Team pace: 101.15 (11th ranked)
Team defensive rating: 113.6 (27th ranked)
Team offensive rating: 112 (10th ranked)
Schedule breakdown: Memphis Grizzlies, Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers, Dallas Mavericks, Brooklyn Nets, PLAYOFFS
The big news for the Portland Trailblazers is the return of underrated center Jusuf Nurkic. With him starting (likely), that returns Hassan Whiteside to a bench role, where he should absolutely dominate. Damian Lillard is the face of the franchise and CJ McCollum is the Robin to his Batman. The Blazers have elite offensive talent but are terrible at defense, especially in the paint during the regular season. The return of Nurkic should help stop the bleeding, but defense wins championships in my opinion and the Trailblazers just don’t have it. Although they should not make a deep run, look for Lillard to still play out of his mind and keep adding to his case for top three point guards in the league.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Coach: Billy Donovan
Record, current position: 40-24, Third in the Northwest Division, Fifth in the Western Conference
Projected finish: 44-28
Players not in bubble: Davis Bertans
Projected starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Bench: Dennis Schroder, Hamidou Diallo, Terrance Ferguson, Darius Bazley, Nerlens Noel, Mike Muscala
Team pace: 99.21 (20th ranked)
Team defensive rating: 108.4 (ninth ranked)
Team offensive rating: 111 (14th ranked)
Schedule breakdown: Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, Washington Wizards, Phoenix Suns, Miami Heat, Los Angeles Clippers, Playoffs.
The OKC Thunder have been surprisingly good this year after losing Russell Westbrook. They are ranked third in their division with a respectable 44-28 record. Even though they have overachieved this season, I don’t see them really having a chance to have a long postseason. Chris Paul has never really thrived in the playoffs (however, he has never had a great supporting cast). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is shaping up to be a stud; however, he is still young and struggles when the defense locks in on him. Danilo Gallinari always seems to be hit or miss, as does Dennis Schroder. Aside from those four, the OKC Thunder just don't possess the depth to be a real threat to the elite teams in the league.
Utah Jazz
Coach: Quinn Snyder
Record, current position: 45-27
Projected finish: 26-46, ninth in Eastern Conference
Players not in bubble: Davis Bertans
Projected starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O'Neale, Rudy Gobert
Bench: Jordan Clarkson, Emmanuel Mudiay, Georges Niang, Juwan Morgan, Tony Bradley, Ed Davis
Team pace: 98.95 (25th ranked)
Team defensive rating: 108.8 (11th ranked)
Team offensive rating: 112.1 (eight ranked)
Schedule breakdown: New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, Playoffs
The Utah Jazz made significant steps offensively this year but lost a little on defense. They are regarded as one of the best defensive teams in the league, however, statistically ranked 11th. Rudy Gobert is now a household name after the COVID-19 incident and, honestly, still should be a full go now; however, I do know he has mentioned lingering effects with taste and smell. The only other guy on the team that is somewhat consistent is their best offensive weapon in Donovan Mitchell. The combo of the two is just not enough to make an impact in the playoffs. They should go down quickly, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of familiar Jazz faces on another squad next year.
