NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/8)

Monday’s NBA DFS slate was possibly the wildest of the season. Essentially half of the league was ruled out, and then we got more and more news after the slate locked. Hopefully Tuesday is a bit more relaxed.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 8 | NBA DFS First Look

Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets

BKN -3.5, total: 238.5
Pace: BKN (11th), CHA (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) has been ruled out for Brooklyn. Meanwhile, Cam Thomas is listed as questionable.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers

CLE -3, total: 222.5
Pace: CLE (26th), IND (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jarrett Allen is without a timetable for his return. Caris LeVert (foot) will remain sidelined, while Rajon Rondo is listed as questionable.
• For the Pacers, both Chris Duarte and Lance Stephenson are listed as questionable. Goga Bitadze (foot) is also questionable to play.

Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic

PHX -5.5, total: 220.5
Pace: PHX (8th), ORL (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• Devin Booker and Cameron Johnson will remain sidelined for Phoenix.
• Jalen Suggs (ankle) is listed as questionable for Orlando.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -5.5, total: 232
Pace: NOP (22nd), MEM (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Dillon Brooks (ankle) is close to a return but won’t play Tuesday.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

MIL -13.5, total: 230
Pace: MIL (7th), OKC (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort, Kenrich Williams, Ty Jerome and Derrick Favors will all remain sidelined for the Thunder. But now Isaiah Roby is listed as questionable, too.
• Grayson Allen has been ruled out with a hip injury.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -5.5, total: 223
Pace: LAC (14th), GSW (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins should be back in the lineup for this game. Otto Porter (illness) is questionable.
• For Los Angeles, Robert Covington has been ruled out due to personal reasons.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Deandre Ayton vs. Orlando Magic

With Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Cameron Johnson sidelined, Ayton will have to take on a larger role on offense, just like we saw last game where he attempted a season-high 19 field goals. Over the course of the season, Ayton is sporting a 23% usage rate with both Paul and Booker off the floor, while averaging over a fantasy point per minute. The Suns have played through Ayton in the post more during the absences of both All-Star guards, which should bode well for him against an Orlando team that is surrendering the fifth-most post-up points per game on the season (5.2), as well as the seventh-most points per possession (0.98). Ayton, meanwhile, is averaging 3.1 post-up points per game on the year (9th-most).

Jae Crowder vs. Orlando Magic

Let’s stay with the Suns here, shall we? Crowder is in line for more minutes and opportunity with Paul, Booker and Johnson all out. Last game he logged 35 minutes, scoring over 37 fantasy points, while even adding an impressive seven assists. His usage rate climbs to over 20% with all three players off the floor this season, while averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute in the split. At $5,100 on DraftKings, he is simply too cheap given the current makeup of this Phoenix lineup, while the matchup is great, as Orlando is allowing a league-worst 1.08 points per possession off spot-ups this season to go along with the highest field goal percentage (41.3%). Crowder, meanwhile, is averaging 5.0 spot-up points per game this season, while sporting a whopping 48.7% frequency rate off the play type.

Kevin Durant vs. Charlotte Hornets

In two games since returning from injury, Durant has attempted 42 shots, while sporting a massive 35.3% usage rate. He’s logging huge minutes and with Brooklyn not having any back-to-backs coming up, expect the minutes to stay high. A matchup with Charlotte is about as good as it gets and given the combination of total, pace and spread of this game, you can easily make the argument that Durant is the best play of the slate. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Landry Shamet vs. ORL — Shamet started in place of Booker last game, logging 34 minutes, With Johnson also out again, Shamet should be in line for plenty of minutes and as we’ve discussed, the Magic give it up to three-point shooter, as about 35% of the points surrendered by Orlando have come from beyond the arc this season.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Brandon Williams (49.0)
Moses Moody (38.25)
Cade Cunningham (55.5)
Marvin Bagley (40.5)
Joel Embiid (74.5)
Jordan Poole (49.75)
Julius Randle (70.5)
Immanuel Quickley (43.0)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Jordan Poole (44.1)
Brandon Williams (50.6)
Cade Cunningham (53.2)
Luka Doncic (73.7)
Bogdan Bogdanovic (42.0)
Derrick Jones (28.2)
Julius Randle (66.0)
Marvin Bagley (40.5)
Joel Embiid (75.8)