Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 50 in Las Vegas. We have a 14-fight card slate this week with many of the fights expected to end by finish so it should be a fun weekend.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Tafon Nchukwi
Murzakanov, -160; Nchukwi, +140
Murzakanov is coming off a win on Dana White’s Contender Series last August. He was previously signed to the UFC years ago but served a two-year USADA suspension before coming back for that Contender Series fight. He is a heavy-handed southpaw boxer with seven of his 10 wins coming by knockout, all in the first round. He does have some solid wrestling as well and is dangerous if he gets on top with some nice ground and pound. However, I have some concerns with his gas tank if the finish does not materialize and he is unable to get the fight to the mat.
Nchukwi is coming off a decision victory over Mike Rodriguez in September. He is a technical kickboxer that will throw in volume and has legitimate power himself. I expect Nchukwi to be winning the striking exchanges as he is going to be much more active at distance and will have a six-inch reach advantage. Additionally, Murzakanov is a headhunter and Nchukwi typically keeps a tight high guard so should be able to defend most of his punches.
Murzakanov does have the potential to land takedowns, but Nchukwi is difficult to control and should be able to work back to his feet if needed. Nchukwi by knockout is the official pick.
Kris Moutinho vs. Guido Cannetti
Moutinho, -140; Cannetti, +120
Moutinho is coming off his UFC debut against Sean O’Malley at UFC 264 last July. He is recognized for taking the beating of a lifetime in that fight but refused to give up and even had some moments later in the fight. That said, I still am not sure he belongs in the UFC. He is a punching bag on the feet and his defensive grappling needs work as well. His best attributes are being tough and walking through punches like a zombie to keep pressuring and his cardio is good.
Cannetti is coming off a split-decision loss to Mana Martinez in August. He has now lost four of his last five fights and is likely getting his walking papers if he loses this one. Cannetti is a technical kickboxer that will throw with power early in the fight. The problem is he does not throw enough, and his volume tends to fade as the fight goes on. What he does have going for him is his wrestling as he averages two takedowns per 15 minutes.
I do not have a ton of interest in this fight for DraftKings, but I do favor Cannetti as the more experienced veteran with the potential to land takedowns and be the cleaner striker on the feet. Cannetti by decision is the official pick.
Dalcha Lungiambula vs. Cody Brundage
Lungiambula, -120; Brundage, +100
Lungiambula is coming off a decision loss to Marc-Andre Barriault in September. He is a very powerful athlete, but my issue with him is the lack of activity during extended periods in a fight. He does not throw enough volume and is typically losing striking exchanges. He has some okay wrestling but only averages two takedowns per 15 minutes, but he does not have good control and is not a threat to submit his opponents either.
Brundage is coming off a decision loss to Nick Maximov in his UFC debut at UFC 266 in September. Brundage comes from a Division II wrestling background, so I doubt Lungiambula will have much success landing takedowns against him like Maximov did. Brundage does not put a ton of volume out there either, but I expect him to be the more active fighter of the two and as the more credentialed wrestler, I have to lean toward him in this matchup.
Outside of an early finish, I do not expect this fight to score well as it should be a low volume fight with a lot of pummeling and cage push which is not great for DraftKings scoring. Brundage by decision is the official pick.
Miranda Maverick vs. Sabina Mazo
Maverick, -320; Mazo, +250
Maverick is coming off a decision loss to Erin Blanchfield her last time out at UFC 269 in December. She is currently on a two-fight losing streak after winning her first two UFC bouts and is desperate to get back in the win column in what should be a decent matchup for her against Mazo. Maverick has a Muay Thai striking style and outside of her lack of head movement, there is not much to complain about for a young prospect. But it seems like her obvious path to victory here would be to use that ground game and mix in the takedowns against a one-dimensional striker like Mazo.
Mazo is a high-volume kickboxer with a strong kicking game, but she has repeatedly been dominated by fighters capable of taking her down and controlling her. Maverick has that skillset; it just comes down to if she will choose to implement. I think she does Saturday and gets the job done and wins a decision.
Maverick by decision is the official pick but she is expensive on DraftKings, so I prefer other targets in that price range this week.
Kamuela Kirk vs. Damon Jackson
Kirk, -120; Jackson, +100
Kirk is coming off a decision victory over Makwan Amirkhani in his UFC debut last June. He is 12-4 with 11 of his wins coming inside the distance and the only person to finish him was Billy Quarantillo on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2019. He is clearly more comfortable on the mat and will look to take the fight there in most matchups and show off his black belt in BJJ. However, his cardio tends to fade in most of his fights and that is an issue here against Jackson in what should be a grueling grappling pace.
Jackson is coming off a decision victory over Charles Rosa in October. He landed six takedowns in that fight, but he is typically the one being taken down in most fights as he is willing to play off his back and has just a 35% takedown defense in the UFC. This is an interesting matchup to me as I do not rate either guy’s striking very high.
While both guys are good submission grapplers, they can also both be taken down and controlled. I expect Kirk to look like the stronger fighter early on but if he has not shored up his cardio issues then Jackson will put on a grappling clinic in the later rounds. I lean towards Jackson as the more proven fighter over 15 minutes who should have the cardio edge. He is my preferred play on DraftKings as well, but this isn’t a slam dunk matchup for him. Jackson by decision is the official pick.
Javid Basharat vs. Trevin Jones
Basharat, -150; Jones, +130
Basharat earned his UFC contract with a third-round submission victory on Dana White’s Contender Series this past season. He is an 11-0 prospect with six submissions and five knockout victories. The level of competition has been subpar, but he has looked impressive throughout. He comes from a taekwondo striking base, but it was the ground game that earned him the contract in his last fight against a credentialed grappler that he dominated from pillar to post.
Jones is coming off a third-round submission loss against Saidyokub Kakhramonov in August. Jones has power in his hands but doesn’t throw enough volume and gets caught not doing enough for extended periods which makes him more finish reliant. He has a black belt in BJJ but is willing to play guard off his back and give up control time. This should be a competitive fight but and I feel like I don’t have a strong read yet on Basharat considering he looked much better on Contender Series than I expected.
Overall, I lean his way as the more active fighter of the two with better cardio but I think this fight has a wide range of outcomes so I will hedge it out on DraftKings with neither guy being a core piece for me. Basharat by decision is the official pick.
Gillian Robertson vs. JJ Aldrich
Robertson, -135; Aldrich, +115
Robertson is coming off a first-round submission victory over Priscila Cachoeira in December. Her fights are relatively easy to break down as she comes in with the same gameplan every time. She is looking to get the fight to the mat and is dangerous if she gets it there with multiple submission victories and heavy ground and pound. The issue with Robertson is when she cannot get the fight to the ground she really struggles as she has no backup plan and her striking lacks substance.
Aldrich is coming off a decision win over Vanessa Demopoulos in August. Aldrich is a southpaw boxer that will throw in volume and occasionally mix in some takedowns. She should have a clear striking advantage over Robertson in this matchup. It simply comes down to if she can keep the fight on the feet and avoid grappling exchanges.
Aldrich is likely in trouble if she lets Robertson get on top of her on the mat, but I still would favor her in this matchup as the better striker who should be able to avoid the grappling for the most part. Aldrich by decision is the official pick but Robertson has more upside on DraftKings as her fighting style is always high scoring in a victory.
Matthew Semelsberger vs. A.J. Fletcher
Semelsberger, -240; Fletcher, +195
Semelsberger is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Martin Sano at UFC 266 in September. He is a powerful striker with six of his nine wins coming by knockout. But outside of his strong boxing combinations, he does not have much else to his game. His wrestling has looked decent offensively, but he rarely goes to it, and it will not be an advantage for him in this matchup.
Fletcher is coming off a highlight-reel knockout victory on Dana White’s Contender Series last August. Fletcher is an explosive athlete with big power himself to go along with heavy leg kicks. Aside from his striking, he has a legitimate ground game and will look to get the fight to the mat where he is dangerous in top position and liable to finish. Fletcher will have to deal with a sizable reach disadvantage but his timing on his takedown entries is very good and I expect him to close distance and land takedowns if he can avoid getting clipped on the feet
This is a fun fight where both guys have early knockout upside. But I lean with the underdog as Fletcher has just as much finishing upside on the feet and I favor his ability on the mat. Fletcher by submission is the official pick.
Alex Pereira vs. Bruno Silva
Pereira, -180; Silva, +155
Pereira is coming off an impressive second-round knockout victory over Andreas Michailidis in his UFC debut at UFC 268 in November. He comes from a high-level kickboxing background and is just 4-1 professionally with all four wins coming by knockout. I still have concerns about the rest of his MMA skills, but it’s clear he has the striking technique and the power to go with it and that alone can win in some matchups.
Silva is likely one of those matchups. Silva is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Jordan Wright in December. He is 3-0 in the UFC with all of his wins coming by knockout and is currently on a seven-fight win streak with all wins coming by knockout.
Both guys have clear punching power, and this is a high variance style of matchup where they will likely trade until someone falls down. I prefer Pereira as his technique is much cleaner and I trust his defense more, but I would not be surprised to see either guy win by knockout. For that reason, I will have exposure to both sides on DraftKings but Pereira by knockout is the official pick.
Drew Dober vs. Terrance McKinney
Dober, -170; McKinney, +150
Dober is coming off a decision loss to Brad Riddell in what was an exciting firefight for 15 minutes. He is currently on a two-fight losing streak, but the level of competition he has faced is much greater than what McKinney has been dealing with. Dober’s gameplan is clear, as he will need to keep the fight standing and use his powerful boxing. If he can avoid being taken down, he will have a clear striking advantage and will likely win by knockout in one of the first two rounds. The problem with that is that Dober does not have good takedown defense at just 55%, so we must expect that McKinney will likely get him down at least once here. So, we would need to rely on Dober to avoid getting submitted, which he has been four times in his career. If he does avoid the submission early, we would also need him to avoid being taken down repeatedly so that he will have enough time on the feet to hurt McKinney.
While those outcomes are possible, I cannot justify betting him at this number in such a volatile matchup where he will have a clear grappling disadvantage. We know McKinney is kind of a one-trick pony, but he is dangerous early in fights and his wrestling is good while he has the cardio, and those aspects alone make him a threat to finish Dober. This is another high-variance matchup where it is likely Dober winning by knockout or McKinney winning by submission. I will have one of these guys in every lineup this week as I have a hard time seeing the winner of this fight not score very well. I am high on Dober’s striking but unfortunately do not see him being able to use it much in this matchup. McKinney by submission is the official pick.
Karl Roberson vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Roberson, -130; Rountree, +110
Roberson is coming off a submission loss to Brendan Allen in April of last year and is currently on a two-fight losing streak. Roberson has had a brutal stretch of matchups in the UFC in that he is always being matched against predominantly submission grapplers. Roberson’s fight IQ and defensive grappling have always been his biggest weaknesses and I am excited to see him in this matchup in what should be a stand-up affair.
Rountree is coming off a second-round TKO victory over Modestas Bukauskas that included a brutal knee injury for Bukauskas in September. Rountree is a powerful kickboxer with six of his nine wins coming by knockout. But this is a difficult matchup for him as I expect Roberson to be the quicker striker and be throwing more volume.
Roberson also has a clear durability edge as Rountree has been knocked out multiple times in his career. I could see Roberson putting together one of his best performances to date in what is finally a favorable matchup to him. Roberson by decision is the official pick.
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Alex Caceres
Yusuff, -250; Caceres, +200
Yusuff is coming off a decision loss to Arnold Allen his last time out in April of last year, his first loss in the UFC. He is a powerful boxer with lightning-fast hands and should have a clear striking advantage over Caceres in this matchup. I seriously doubt Caceres will be able to keep up with the pace and volume of Yusuff on the feet and I do not trust his willingness or skill to get the fight to the mat.
Caceres is drawing very thin in this matchup despite the five-fight win streak. I am not even convinced that Caceres would have a significant grappling edge if the fight were to hit the mat. Yusuff by decision is the official pick but I do not have a ton of interest for DraftKings on either side.
Song Yadong vs. Marlon Moraes
Yadong, -260; Moraes, +210
Yadong is fresh off a second-round knockout victory over Julio Arce in November. He is currently on a two-fight win streak and his only loss in the UFC came against Kyler Phillips last March. Yadong is a flashy striker with fast hands and will mix in leg kicks as well. He is a well-rounded prospect that is very difficult to control for extended periods.
Moraes is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Merab Dvalishvili in September. He is currently on a three-fight losing streak and lost all of them by knockout. He has now been knocked out six times in his career and the durability along with the cardio are serious concerns. That said, you can never fully count him out as he is a technical striker and carries knockout power himself in the first round. But it’s clear by now that if you do not get knocked out by Moraes in the first round then you are likely a heavy favorite to win Rounds 2-3. Yadong by knockout is the official pick and this is another good fight to target on DraftKings this week.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Thiago Santos
Ankalaev, -575; Santos, +410
Ankalaev is coming off a decision victory over Volkan Oezdemir in October at Fight Island. He is many people’s favorite to be the eventual champion of the light heavyweight division and a win this weekend may have him next in line for a title shot. He certainly has all the tools you look for with the high-level striking technique to go along with his well-roundedness with the ground game.
Santos is coming off a decision win over Johnny Walker in October which was one of the most boring main events in the history of the sport. Santos is a good striker, but he is never throwing enough volume. If he is not hurting, you early with his power then he is likely not winning rounds. Additionally, he can be taken down and controlled which is just another avenue for Ankalaev in this matchup.
I am not ready to say that Santos is washed yet but this is a brutal matchup for him, and I expect Ankalaev to roll. Ankalaev by knockout is the official pick and he is a strong play on DraftKings.
