NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/30)

Wednesday’s massive 11-game NBA DFS slate features a ton of moving parts. And as we approach the month of April, we really need to pay attention to which teams are playing for something and which teams are looking ahead to next season.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 30 | NBA DFS First Look

Dallas Mavericks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

DAL -3, total: 213
Pace: DAL (30th), CLE (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Already without Rajon Rondo, Dean Wade and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers have now ruled out Evan Mobley (ankle).

Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards

WAS -3, total: 219.5
Pace: ORL (10th), WAS (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyle Kuzma is expected to sit out once again.
• For Orlando, both Wendell Carter and Jalen Suggs will miss this game.

Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers

DEN -9.5, total: 234.5
Pace: DEN (20th), IND (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• Malcolm Brogdon, Goga Bitadze and Isaiah Jackson are listed as questionable. Chris Duarte has been ruled out.

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

BOS -4.5, total: 213.5
Pace: MIA (29th), BOS (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are listed as probable for Boston. Robert Williams is out.
• Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin are questionable for Miami.

Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks

CHA -1.5, total: 223
Pace: CHA (5th), NYK (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Quentin Grimes has been ruled out.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -3, total: 229.5
Pace: MIN (1st), TOR (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jaden McDaniels and Malik Beasley remain sidelined for Minnesota.
• Malachi Flynn has been ruled out for the Raptors.

Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets

SAC -2.5, total: 229.5
Pace: SAC (6th), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis will remain sidelined for Sacramento.
• Meanwhile, the Rockets have shut down Christian Wood, Dennis Schroder and Eric Gordon for the season. Alperen Sengun is listed as questionable. 

Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

ATL -12.5, total: 227.5
Pace: ATL (19th), OKC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• John Collins is out for Atlanta, while Danilo Gallinari and De’Andre Hunter are listed as questionable.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will miss the remainder of the season for the Thunder. Meanwhile, Tre Mann (hamstring) is listed as questionable.

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs

MEM -5.5, total: 233.5
Pace: MEM (3rd), SAS (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Ja Morant will remain out of the lineup. Jaren Jackson (thigh) is listed as questionable.

Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors

PHX -4.5, total: 222.5
Pace: PHX (9th), GSW (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Cameron Johnson is listed as doubtful for the Suns. JaVale McGee (illness) has been ruled out.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers

NOP -14, total: 226
Pace: NOP (20th), POR (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jonas Valanciunas is listed as questionable with a foot injury.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Dillon Brooks vs. San Antonio Spurs

Memphis will continue to be without Ja Morant, while Jaren Jackson (thigh) is once again listed as questionable. Brooks is already a high-usage player but with both Morant and Jackson off the floor this season, his usage rate is just under 30%, the highest mark on the team. He is also averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute in the split. Brooks is guaranteed to take 15-20 field goals in this game and if it is competitive and he can eclipse 30 minutes, 25 field goal attempts isn’t out of the question. The matchup is favorable, too, as San Antonio is coughing up the most points per possession (1.07), second-most points per game (6.1) and a league-worst 48% field goal percentage off handoffs this season. Brooks, meanwhile, is averaging 2.3 points per game off the play type on the year, good for the third-most in all of basketball.

Jalen Green vs. Sacramento Kings

After a bit of a slow start to his rookie season, Green has come on as of late. In fact, during the month of March, Green is averaging 20.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists and nearly three triples per game, while shooting 48% from the field. He has attempted 16, 17 and 24 field goals over his last three games and Green should continue to take plenty of shots, as the Rockets will be without Christian Wood, Dennis Schroder and Eric Gordon. With all three players off the floor this season, Green’s usage rate is just over 27% and he faces a bad Sacramento defense that is allowing a league-worst 24.83 points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, as well as the fourth-most three-points per game to the position (3.64).

Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Toronto Raptors

The advanced DVP doesn’t look amazing for Towns, but I love this spot for him, and I don’t think he draws much attention. Yes, Toronto looks like a bad matchup for opposing centers, but I look at this team and see lack of size in the interior against Towns. The Raptors are coughing up the eighth-most points per possession to the post this season (0.99), while Towns is averaging a healthy 3.1 post-up points per game on the year, good for the ninth-most in the NBA. He is also shooting a healthy 53.7% from the field off the play type. Don’t sleep on Towns on Wednesday’s slate.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Josh Christopher vs. SAC — Christopher is coming off a game where he logged 30 minutes. And if Eric Gordon and Dennis Schroder sidelined again on Wednesday, there is clearly a path to Christopher playing 30-32 minutes once again. With Schroder, Gordon and Christian Wood off the floor this season, Christopher is sporting a healthy 24.5% usage rate, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split.