NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/10)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.

We have a short two-game slate Thursday, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for March 10 | NBA DFS First Look

Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -4.5, total: 234.5
Pace: BKN (12th), PHI (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Ben Simmons, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joe Harris have been ruled out for the Nets.
• Danny Green has been ruled out for the Sixers.

Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

GSW -1.5, total: 228.5
Pace: GSW (14th), DEN (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Draymond Green, Otto Porter and Gary Payton have been ruled out for the Warriors.
• Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and Bones Hyland remain out for the Nuggets, while Will Barton should be considered questionable after missing Wednesday’s game.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Below are two noteworthy matchups to target on Thursday’s NBA DFS slate.

Tyrese Maxey vs. Brooklyn Nets

While the masses (including myself) assumed Maxey’s production would suffer from the presence of James Harden, that simply has not been the case. The increased floor spacing has done wonders for the second-year guard, as he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with Harden on the court, compared to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute with Harden off it. He’s shot 53.7% from the field and 51.1% from three since the trade deadline, averaging 21.1 points per game and seeing nearly 35 minutes per game. While he doesn’t have the astronomical ceiling that his teammates have, his production has been downright elite since the trade and he’s a great option at a discount against the Nets Thursday.

Monte Morris vs. Golden State Warriors

Morris has been one of the biggest beneficiaries in the absence of Will Barton this season, averaging nearly 40% more DraftKings points per game across nine games without him this season. In those nine games, he’s averaged 15.56 points, 5.78 assists and 5.56 rebounds in 32 minutes per game (up from his average of 29 minutes per game with Barton active). Barton’s status is up in the air after missing Wednesday’s contest and if he remains out again, Morris will become arguably the strongest value play on the slate under $5,000 Thursday.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,200)
2. Joel Embiid ($10,800)
3. James Harden ($10,400)
4. Kevin Durant ($10,300)
5. Kyrie Irving ($9,900)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,400)
2. Joel Embiid ($10,800)
3. Kevin Durant ($10,400)
4. James Harden ($10,200)
5. Kyrie Irving ($9,700)

With Thursday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Wednesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The overall highest-scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the optimal lineup on DraftKings from Wednesday’s slate:

• PG: Jalen Green (43.25)
• SG: Aaron Wiggins (46.75)
• SF: Jayson Tatum (64.75)
• PF: Alperen Sengun (50.00)
• C: Bobby Portis (51.25)
• G: Malik Beasley (45.75)
• F: Marcus Morris (48.00)
• UTIL: Jonas Valanciunas (62.25)
• Total: 412.00

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel from Wednesday’s slate:

• PG: Reggie Jackson (47.1)
• PG: Russell Westbrook (49.6)
• SG: Aaron Wiggins (43.3)
• SG: Jalen Green (41.1)
• SF: Marcus Morris (47.6)
• SF: Jayson Tatum (64.5)
• PF: Alperen Sengun (49.8)
• PF: LeBron James (67.8)
• C: Jonas Valanciunas (63.5)
• Total: 474.3

The optimal lineups on both sites ate their fair share of chalk, as Alperen Sengun was one of the most popular value pieces on the slate with Christian Wood ruled out. LeBron James was also rostered by over 44% of users on FanDuel, while Jayson Tatum was a rather popular spend-up on DraftKings. The difference-maker on both sites was Jonas Valanciunas. With the masses flocking to CJ McCollum in the absence of Brandon Ingram for the second consecutive game, Valanciunas provided the ceiling that users were searching for at less than half of the popularity of his teammate, McCollum. Eat some chalk, find some leverage, rinse, repeat.