NBA DFS Preview – First Look (2/28)

The last day of February features a strong seven-game NBA slate. Per usual, there are a ton of injuries to keep track of, so be sure to keep tabs on the news throughout the day. 

Check out the FTN NBA Optimizer today! 

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers

MIN -3.5, total: 219
Pace: MIN (1st), CLE (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Darius Garland, Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo will all remain out for the Cavaliers.
• For Minnesota, Malik Beasley (illness) is listed as probable.

Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic

ORL -1, total: 231.5
Pace: IND (19th), ORL (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• This is a back-to-back for Indiana, so keep an eye on players like Malcolm Brogdon. Meanwhile, Lance Stephenson didn’t play on Sunday with an ankle injury. 
• Markelle Fultz will make his season debut for the Magic on Monday.

Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets

TOR -4, total: 218.5
Pace: TOR (22nd), BKN (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyrie Irving will be unavailable for Brooklyn in this game. 
• For Toronto, OG Anunoby will remain sidelined, while Fred VanVleet (knee) is once again listed as questionable. 

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

MIA -4, total: 224.5
Pace: CHI (11th), MIA (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyle Lowry has been ruled out due to personal reasons, while Caleb Martin (Achilles) is listed as questionable.
• For the Bulls, Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso remain out, while Nikola Vucevic (ankle) is listed as probable.

San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -8.5, total: 237
Pace: SAS (4th), MEM (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Brandon Clarke (eye) is listed as questionable. Meanwhile, Dillon Brooks is getting close to a return but will remain out for Monday’s game.
• Doug McDermott is listed as questionable for San Antonio.

Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -10, total: 240.5
Pace: CHA (6th), MIL (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder

SAC -4.5, total: 228.5
Pace: SAC (5th), OKC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Josh Giddey (hip) will remain out of the lineup for Monday’s game, along with Lu Dort, Kenrich Williams, Ty Jerome and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.
• For Sacramento, Richaun Holmes, who has missed the last two games with a back injury, is listed as questionable.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Domantas Sabonis vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Targeting centers against the Thunder has worked out more often than not this season, which has Domantas Sabonis firmly on my radar Monday. He’s scored at least 50 fantasy points in each of his last three games, while recording double-digit rebounds in five of six games since joining the Kings. And during that span, Sabonis is averaging just under 18 rebounding chances per game. However, he is converting a whopping 71% of those opportunities. A matchup with Oklahoma City is fantastic, as the Thunder are coughing up the second-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the season (17.52). They are also allowing the third-most points per possession (1.01) and highest field goal percentage (55.1%) to the post, which bodes well for Sabonis.

Ja Morant vs. San Antonio Spurs

I have no idea why Ja Morant is only $9,700 on DraftKings, but here we are. He is coming off yet another game of 40-plus real points, and over the last two weeks, Morant is sporting an insane 37.2% usage rate and 17% assist rate, while averaging 1.52 fantasy points per minute during that stretch. Dillon Brooks is still out for Memphis, and as long as that remains the case, Morant should be around $10,500. Morant is sporting a 34.3% usage rate, while averaging 1.42 fantasy points per minute with Brooks off the floor this season. As for his matchup with San Antonio, it is favorable, as both teams play at a top-five pace. Meanwhile, San Antonio is allowing the second-most points per game to opposing pick-and-roll ball handlers this season (19.8), as well as the second-highest frequency rate off the play type (20.2%). That bodes well for Morant, who is averaging 11.4 points per game out of the pick-and-roll, good for the fourth-most in the NBA.

Buddy Hield vs. Orlando Magic

Buddy Hield has been logging massive minutes since joining Indiana, which has been a change of pace from his final days in Sacramento. In six games with the Pacers, Hield is averaging an insane 39.5 minutes per game, while also attempting over nine three-pointers per game during that stretch. Even with Malcolm Brogdon back, Hield has remained in the starting lineup, sporting plenty of volume. I love his potential against Orlando, a team that is surrendering a league-worst 1.08 points per possession to spot-up shooters this season to go along with the highest field goal percentage (41.5%). Hield, meanwhile, is averaging 7.5 spot-up points per game in six contests since joining Indiana, the most in the NBA during that span. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Gabe Vincent vs. CHI- With Kyle Lowry ruled out, Vincent will likely enter the starting lineup for the Heat. In 19 games as a starter this season, Vincent is averaging a very respectable 12.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game. At just $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel, Vincent will be difficult to overlook.

Isaac Okoro vs. MIN- Granted, Okoro doesn’t have a massive ceiling. But if we don’t have a ton of value on this slate, he’ll be more than viable, especially since the minutes should be in the mid-30’s with Darius Garland, Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo all sidelined. Okoro logged just over 37 minutes in Cleveland’s last game.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Reggie Jackson (44.75)
Terry Rozier (48.75)
Miles Bridges (57.5)
Kelly Olynyk (40.5)
Ivica Zubac (50.75)
Stephen Curry (53.5)
JaMychal Green (40)
DeMarcus Cousins (41.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Reggie Jackson (40.8)
Stephen Curry (51.8)
CJ McCollum (48)
Terry Rozier (47)
Saddiq Bey (40.1)
Miles Bridges (57.5)
JaMychal Green (40)
Kelly Olynyk (40.1)
Ivica Zubac (53.5)