NBA DFS Preview – First Look (2/14)

After a very small two-game NBA slate on Super Bowl Sunday, Monday presents a loaded nine-game slate. There are no shortages of injuries around the league right now, so be sure to keep an eye on news throughout the day and check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards

WAS -4, total: 218.5
Pace: DET (5th), WAS (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Kristaps Porzingis (knee) will not make his Washington debut on Monday. 
• Marvin Bagley, however, is expected to make his Detroit debut.

Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets

SAC -4.5, total: 224.5
Pace: SAC (9th), BKN (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyrie Irving won’t be available for this game, while Ben Simmons won’t make his Brooklyn debut. However, Seth Curry and Andre Drummond will make their debuts.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks

NYK -8, total: 206.5
Pace: OKC (19th), NYK (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• RJ Barrett (ankle) has been ruled out for the Knicks. It will be his third straight absence. Mitchell Robinson and Cam Reddish, meanwhile, are listed as questionable with ankle injuries. Nerlens Noel (foot) is also questionable.

San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -5, total: 234
Pace: SAS (8th), CHI (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Zach LaVine will miss Monday’s game and is set to visit a specialist. Javonte Green (foot) is also listed as questionable for Chicago.
• Josh Richardson is expected to make his San Antonio debut Monday.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -15.5, total: 231
Pace: POR (19th), MIL (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle) is listed as probable for Milwaukee. 
• For Portland, both Eric Bledsoe and Dennis Smith have been ruled out.

Toronto Raptors @ New Orleans Pelicans

TOR -4, total: 220.5
Pace: TOR (26th), NOP (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Orlando Magic @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -10.5, total: 225
Pace: ORL (12th), DEN (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Monte Morris (concussion) is listed as questionable for Denver.

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz

UTA -14.5, total: 229.5
Pace: HOU (1st), UTA (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Rudy Gobert (calf) practiced on Sunday and is listed as questionable for Utah. Rudy Gay, meanwhile, has been ruled out.
• For Houston, Eric Gordon (heel) is listed as probable. Dennis Schroder is expected to join the Rockets ahead of this game.

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers

GSW -6, total: 222.5
Pace: GSW (14th), LAC (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Norman Powell suffered a fractured foot and is without a timetable for return for the Clippers. Luke Kennard (ankle) is listed as questionable. 

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Nikola Vucevic is averaging 6.7 points per game out of the pick-and-roll this season

No player in basketball is averaging more points per game off the play type than Vucevic, who has been fantastic as of late. Over his last seven games, Vucevic is averaging 25.3 points, 13.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.3 blocks and 52.2 fantasy points per game. With all the injuries to the Bulls, both DeMar DeRozan and Vucevic have been carrying this team, and with Zach LaVine out, that should continue. Vucevic is sporting a 28.3% usage rate, 32% rebounding rate and is averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute with LaVine off the court this season. The matchup is also very strong. San Antonio is coughing up the second-most points (9.4), seventh-most points per possession (1.17) and fourth-worst field goal percentage (55.9%) to opposing roll men out of the pick-and-roll. Vucevic, meanwhile, leads the NBA in both points (6.7) and possessions (7.0) off the play type, while his 37.7% frequency rate is the third-highest rate in basketball.

Julius Randle is sporting a 30.1% usage rate with both Derrick Rose and RJ Barrett off the floor

Randle has been very underwhelming in the first half of the season, but over his last six games, he’s been unbelievable. During that stretch, he is averaging 27.3 points, 12.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists and just over 56 fantasy points per game. And in that six-game stretch, Randle is averaging nearly 84 touches per game, while his 19.7 rebounding chances per game are good for the seventh-most in the league. RJ Barrett will remain sidelined for this game, while Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel are listed as questionable. The usage is already over 30% with both Barrett and Rose off the floor this season, but the rebounding rate also climbs with Robinson off the court. In a friendly matchup against the Thunder, Randle projects very well on Monday.

Donovan Mitchell is averaging 15.0 drives per game this season

It is good for the 13th-most among active players in basketball, while Mitchell is also averaging 10.7 points per game off drives this season, tied for the fifth-most in the NBA. Against an awful Houston defense, Mitchell has a massive ceiling here, especially since the Rockets are coughing up a 67.9% field goal percentage at the rim, the third-worst mark in all of basketball. They are also allowing the third-worst defended field goal percentage from within six feet of the basket (65.7%). In his four games since returning from a concussion, Mitchell is flirting with a 30% usage rate and should post strong numbers on Monday. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Quentin Grimes vs. OKC- Grimes has started each of the last two games for New York, logging 31 and 37 minutes. He is coming off a fantastic game, scoring 20 points to go along with four rebounds, three assists and a pair of steals. With RJ Barrett and Derrick Rose sidelined, Grimes should start, and at minimum salary on DraftKings, he is currently the top value play of the slate. 

Mo Bamba vs. DEN- Bamba’s minutes have been a bit sporadic, but at just $4,700 on DK, there is still plenty of upside, especially for a player who is averaging a solid 1.04 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season. He doesn’t even have to get to 30-plus minutes, but if he does, Bamba will cruise past this price tag.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Trae Young (55.5)
Anthony Edwards (61.25)
Jayson Tatum (63.5)
Oshae Brissett (47.25)
Naz Reid (25.75)
Tyrese Haliburton (57.25)
Lance Stephenson (32.75)
Jalen Smith (36)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Tyrese Haliburton (52)
D’Angelo Russell (36.4)
Anthony Edwards (61)
Bogdan Bogdanovic (38.2)
Oshae Brissett (44.6)
Lance Stephenson (32.6)
Jalen Smith (34.4)
Jayson Tatum (61.5)
Naz Reid (28.6)