NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/2)

Although there are only five games on Thursday’s NBA DFS slate, there are a ton of injuries that stand out. They are also very, very notable injuries to star players in the league, impacting many, many things for DFS. 

Be sure to pair all of the content with the amazing FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for December 2 | NBA DFS First Look

Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks

CHI -2, total: 211.5
Pace: CHI (9th), NYK (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Coby White tested positive for COVID-19 and will be out for the Bulls.
• RJ Barrett was questionable ahead of last game (illness) but exited after just nine minutes. He is once again questionable for Thursday.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors

MIL -4, total: 215
Pace: MIL (14th), TOR (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• OG Anunoby and Khem Birch will remain out for Toronto, while Gary Trent (calf) is questionable. He’s missed the last two games.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -9, total: 214
Pace: OKC (20th), MEM (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Josh Giddey did not play Wednesday with an illness, and he’ll sit out again Thursday.
• For Memphis, Ja Morant will obviously remain sidelined, while Kyle Anderson is listed as questionable with back soreness.

Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -12, total: 209.5
Pace: DET (9th), PHX (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Devin Booker (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined for the next couple of games for the Suns.

San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers

POR -4, total: 217
Pace: SAS (3rd), POR (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Damian Lillard will miss at least the next 10 days with an abdomen injury.
• Norman Powell (quad) is questionable once again, while Nassir Little will miss a week or so with an ankle injury.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

CJ McCollum is sporting a 31.4% usage rate with Damian Lillard off the floor over the last two seasons

McCollum becomes a very difficult player to fade whenever Lillard is out of the lineup and that will likely be the case over the next handful of games. Over the last two seasons, McCollum’s usage rate is just over 31% with Lillard off the floor, while he is also averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute in the split. McCollum, along with Anfernee Simons, will handle the ball throughout this game and Simons sees a usage bump of 2.2% with Lillard off the floor this season, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. 

Cameron Payne sees a 4.3% bump in usage rate with Devin Booker off the court

Booker will miss some time with a hamstring injury, which is obviously a massive loss for the hottest team in basketball. Chris Paul will take on an even larger role in Booker’s absence, but Payne, who had some huge games for the Suns down the stretch last season, will also be asked to do more. With Booker off the floor this season, Payne’s usage rate is just over 30%, as he sees a usage bump of 4.3% in the split. He is also averaging a healthy 1.15 fantasy points per minute with Booker off the floor. Payne will be a very strong value option Thursday.

Jaren Jackson averages 1.37 fantasy points per minute with Ja Morant off the floor

Morant has been out the last two games and remains without a timetable to return. Players in the backcourt like Tyus Jones and Desmond Bane will benefit in Morant’s absence but what about Jackson? The fourth-year forward is sporting a 31.3% usage rate with Morant off the floor, while averaging nearly 1.40 fantasy points per minute in the split. He’s always been a high-usage player and right now, the Memphis offense is running through Jackson and Dillon Brooks. Jackson is coming off a great game and finds himself in another great spot Thursday, facing a Thunder team that ranks 21st against scorers and 28th against skilled centers, according to FTN Daily’s advanced DVP tool. They are also coughing up 1.06 points per possession to spot-up shooters (fifth most), as well as the seventh-most points per game off the play type (28.3). 

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Malcolm Brogdon (54.5)
LaMelo Ball (64.25)
Terence Davis (38.0)
Kevin Love (42.5)
Daniel Gafford (40.0)
Trae Young (63.0)
Jae’Sean Tate (69.5)
Dewayne Dedmon (39.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Trae Young (59.6)
LaMelo Ball (60.5)
Armoni Brooks (33.8)
Malcolm Brogdon (56.7)
Terence Davis (36.8)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (64.9)
Kevin Love (41.7)
Jae’Sean Tate (72.5)
Dewayne Dedmon (39.1)

Our value article from Wednesday was strong, as it featured both Daniel Gafford and Armoni Brooks, who landed in the optimal lineups. Meanwhile, Dewayne Dedmon had a very strong outing with Miami without Bam Adebayo, who won’t be returning to the lineup anytime soon. Finally, what a game from Jae’Sean Tate, who went off for 32 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists, five blocks and two steals. Christian Wood left with an ankle injury after nine minutes and with Houston already playing small, Tate benefited in a huge way.