Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA DFS slates are getting crazier and crazier every single day. It is messy and it is wild, so make sure you are on top of all of the news throughout the afternoon.
Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.
NBA Vegas Data for December 18 | NBA DFS First Look
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics
BOS -4.5, total: 210
Pace: NYK (23rd), BOS (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Derrick Rose left Thursday’s game early with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for this game. Meanwhile, RJ Barrett remains in the health and safety protocols, while Kevin Knox, Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley could all be out again, too. Miles McBride was just placed in the health and safety protocols Saturday morning.
- For Boston, Dennis Schroder is questionable with an illness, while Al Horford is in the health and safety protocols.
Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -5.5, total: 211
Pace: ORL (15th), BKN (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Seemingly everyone from this game is either out, in the health and safety protocols or questionable. Seriously. Keep tabs on this game throughout the entire day.
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -9, total: 208
Pace: GSW (14th), TOR (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Stephen Curry (rest) will get the day off Saturday, while Draymond Green has also been ruled out with a hip injury. Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins has also been ruled out, while Jordan Poole is in the health and safety protocols.
- For Toronto, OG Anunoby practiced Thursday and could return to the lineup for this game.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
LAC -5.5, total: 210.5
Pace: LAC (4th), OKC (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- Paul George (elbow) has missed the last four games but could return to the lineup Saturday.
- Luguentz Dort is questionable for the Thunder with an ankle injury.
Washington Wizards @ Utah Jazz
UTA -10.5, total: 220.5
Pace: WAS (21st), UTA (19th)
Situations to monitor:
- Donovan Mitchell was apparently dealing with a stomach virus during Friday’s contest so keep an eye on his status for this game.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks
CLE -3, total: 213.5
Pace: CLE (15th), MIL (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis are in the league’s health and safety protocols, while Khris Middleton is questionable with a knee injury.
- For Cleveland, Isaac Okoro is also in the health and safety protocols, while Evan Mobley is questionable with a hip injury.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Jrue Holiday is averaging 99.5 touches per game over the last two contests
That is the third-highest number in the NBA during that span and also way up from his season average of 71.3 touches per game. Of course, this has come in the absences of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, who could both very well remain out again on Saturday. During that two-game stretch, Holiday is also averaging a gaudy 10.8 minutes of possession per game, a number that easily leads the league. And with both players off the floor over the course of the season, Holiday’s usage rate climbs to 34.9%, while also sporting a 26% assist rate and averaging 1.40 fantasy points per minute.
Gary Payton is sporting a 26.2% usage rate with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole off the floor
Yes, there is clearly a lot to unpack here. But the Warriors are going to be insanely shorthanded, so feel free to consider multiple players from this roster. It is a pretty small sample size with Curry, Green, Wiggins and Poole off the floor this season but Payton is sporting a usage rate north of 26% in the split this season, while averaging 1.6 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a 33% rebounding rate.
Robert Williams is sporting a 31% rebounding rate with Al Horford off the floor this season
Horford is in the league’s health and safety protocols and will likely be out of the lineup again Saturday. This should push Williams into a huge rule, as he logged 37 minutes last game, recording seven points and 11 rebounds. Of course, we know Williams has a higher ceiling than that, especially with a rebounding rate north of 31% with Horford off the court this season. He is also averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split on the year.
Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
The Golden State Warriors — Again, with Curry, Green, Wiggins and Poole out for this game, Gary Payton, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Nemanja Bjelica become arguably the top value plays of the entire slate.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
DraftKings optimal lineup
Devonte’ Graham (46.5)
Tyrese Haliburton (47.0)
Andre Iguodala (34.5)
Jordan Nwora (38.75)
Karl-Anthony Towns (56.0)
Jrue Holiday (56.25)
Josh Hart (43.75)
Damian Lillard (63.5)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Trae Young (54.6)
Damian Lillard (59.8)
Devonte’ Graham (44.8)
Jrue Holiday (55.5)
Andre Iguodala (36.8)
Andrew Wiggins (43.2)
Jordan Nwora (37.6)
Herbert Jones (37.8)
Karl-Anthony Towns (56.0)
With Milwaukee missing so many key players, it isn’t surprising to see Jrue Holiday make it into both optimal lineups. The same goes for Damian Lillard, who continues to dominate the usage for Portland, especially in the absence of CJ McCollum.
