NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/6)

Saturday’s five-game main DFS slate around the NBA doesn’t have the most exciting games in terms of totals, but there are plenty of storylines to keep an eye on. A handful of star players will be out this evening, while the 76ers continue to lose a key player from their rotation every single day, it seems.

Let’s break it all down.

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 6 | NBA DFS First Look

Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat

MIA -2.5, total: 212
Pace: UTA (11th), MIA (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Donovan Mitchell missed Thursday’s game with an ankle injury and is once again listed as questionable for Saturday.
• Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry is also dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable. Tyler Herro and Gabe Vincent would see a bump if Lowry is unable to play.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -3.5, total: 212.5
Pace: PHI (30th), CHI (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• The 76ers just keep losing players. Already without Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and Danny Green, now Philadelphia has added Matisse Thybulle into the league’s health and safety protocols, meaning he’ll be out for at least this game. Meanwhile, Furkan Korkmaz is dealing with a wrist injury and is questionable to play.

Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -4.5, total: 210
Pace: BOS (23rd), DAL (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jaylen Brown suffered a hamstring injury in the third quarter of Boston’s last game and has been ruled out for Saturday. Josh Richardson is also questionable with a foot injury, so if he sits out, Romeo Langford will be thrust into a larger role.
• For the Mavericks, Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last five games with a back injury. He’s listed as questionable, but Dallas is hopeful that he’ll be able to return to the lineup.

Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -5, total: 223
Pace: ATL (26th), PHX (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers

POR -5.5, total: 222
Pace: LAL (2nd), POR (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James is expected to be sidelined for the next week (abdomen). Avery Bradley has entered the starting lineup as of late and has logged at least 29 minutes in each of his last three contests.
• Meanwhile, Anthony Davis is questionable to play with a thumb injury, though with James out, I expect him to suit up.

Five Stats to Know

Anthony Davis is sporting a 32.2% usage rate with LeBron James off the court

The Lakers will be without James for the next week or so, as he is nursing an abdomen injury. This makes this team a lot more concentrated on offense, as it will go through Davis and Russell Westbrook. Davis’ usage rate is just over 32% with James off the floor this season, while he is also sporting a 36% rebounding rate and 1.54 fantasy points per minute. We often see the Lakers play through Davis in the post anyway but that was especially the case last game, as he saw a whopping 13 post-ups. That is notable when you consider that Joel Embiid leads the league in post-ups per game at 9.6. Meanwhile, Portland is surrendering the fourth-most points per possession to the post so far this season (1.16), as well as the second-highest field goal percentage off the play type (66.7%).

Carmelo Anthony is averaging 6.0 spot-up points per game this season

That is the 11th-highest mark in the NBA to start the year. Anthony has played well for the Lakers, averaging 17 points per game and shooting over 50% from both the field and beyond the arc. The volume has been there, and it likely doesn’t go away with James still out for Los Angeles. Anthony gets a favorable matchup against a Portland team that is coughing up the most points per game to spot-up shooters on the season (35.8), as well as the second-most points per possession off the play type (1.14). Clearly, that bodes well for Anthony, who ranks inside the top-12 in spot-up points per game.

Jayson Tatum sees a 3.9% bump in usage with Jaylen Brown off the floor

The overall usage rate with Brown off the court is at about 36%, a massive number. Brown won’t play for the Celtics tonight, paving the way for Tatum to have a monster game. His rebounding rate is just under 20% with Brown off the floor, while Tatum is also averaging a strong 1.17 fantasy points per minute in the split. Tatum has struggled with his shot a bit so far this season, but 22-25 field goal attempts seem like a lock.

The Bulls are allowing the fifth-most points per game off screens this season (5.8)

With Philadelphia’s roster so depleted right now, Seth Curry has had to step his game up as of late. And he’s delivered, scoring at least 20 real points in each of his last three games, while attempting 17, 14 and 14 field goals. This is a favorable spot for Curry, too, facing a Bulls team that is coughing up the fifth-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens (5.8), while Curry is shooting over 58% from the field off of the play type this season. His price has obviously come up a bit lately but given the situation with the 76ers right now, Curry remains firmly in play.

Tyler Herro is sporting a 29.5% usage rate with Kyle Lowry off the court

That mark actually leads the Heat roster, just ahead of Jimmy Butler. Herro is coming off his worst game of the season, but he’s been great this year, averaging just over 20 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. Lowry is questionable to play Saturday, and given how banged up he’s already been this season, it wouldn’t at all surprise me to see him sit. If he does, Herro becomes a very strong play on this slate, as he is also averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute with Lowry off the floor, while his rebounding rate jumps over the 20% mark.

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

Dejounte Murray (52.75)
Derrick Rose (44.0)
Norman Powell (37.75)
Julius Randle (58.5)
Richaun Holmes (50.5)
Cole Anthony (44.75)
Grayson Allen (38.25)
Gary Payton II (31.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

LaMelo Ball (45.1)
Dejounte Murray (52.7)
Grayson Allen (37.0)
Derrick Rose (44.6)
Norman Powell (38.5)
Gary Trent (41.9)
Richaun Holmes (46)
Julius Randle (55.4)
Thaddeus Young (36.3)

With D’Angelo Russell once again out, Patrick Beverley was a popular value play, but he did not deliver. Of course, he was rostered in around 40% of lineups over on DraftKings, so it really didn’t hurt all that much. Norman Powell found himself in both optimal lineups and given his role after returning from injury, he was too cheap on both sites, so it was nice to see him have a very strong game.