Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have nine games on tap on Monday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for November 29 | NBA DFS First Look
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -15.5, total: 209.0
Pace: ORL (16th), PHI (30th)
Situations to monitor:
- Cole Anthony remains out for the Magic, while Mo Bamba and Terrence Ross are listed as questionable.
- Shake Milton is listed as questionable for the Sixers.
Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat
MIA -7.5, total: 208.0
Pace: DEN (29th), MIA (26th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nikola Jokic is questionable for the Nuggets. Michael Porter, Jamal Murray and P.J. Dozier all remain out.
- Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are questionable for the Heat.
Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -5.5, total: 226.0
Pace: CHA (3rd), CHI (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Mason Plumlee has been ruled out for the Hornets.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets
HOU -2.5, total: 215.0
Pace: OKC (14th), HOU (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- John Wall and Jalen Green remain out for the Rockets.
- Kenrich Williams has been ruled out for the Thunder.
Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -4, total: 217.5
Pace: IND (21st), MIN (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Patrick Beverley has been ruled out for the Timberwolves.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -5.5, total: 207.5
Pace: CLE (24th), DAL (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jalen Brunson is listed as questionable for the Mavericks.
- Cedi Osman is listed as questionable, Dean Wade doubtful for the Cavs.
Washington Wizards @ San Antonio Spurs
WAS -3, total: 214.0
Pace: WAS (22nd), SAS (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- Devin Vassell and Doug McDermott are questionable for the Spurs.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz
UTA -8, total: 223.0
Pace: POR (17th), UTA (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Norman Powell has been ruled out for the Blazers.
- Royce O’Neale is listed as questionable for the Jazz.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -8.5, total: 210.5
Pace: NOP (18th), LAC (8th)
Situations to monitor:
- Nicolas Batum remains out for the Clippers.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Monday.
Last game with Jalen Green out, Kevin Porter led the Rockets with a 25.8% usage rate.
Porter added impressive peripheral rates as well, posting a 34.3% assist rate (highest among starters) and a 10.1% rebounding rate (second among starters). He finished only two rebounds shy of a triple-double, posting 23 points, 12 assists and 8 rebounds. He should continue to log massive minutes in Green’s absence, and with another favorable matchup on deck, he’s squarely in play once again Monday.
Wendell Carter is averaging 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with both Cole Anthony and Mo Bamba off the court this season.
The sample size isn’t groundbreaking, but 107 minutes is more than enough to take this stat seriously. He sees a 2.5% bump in usage rate in this scenario (up to 21.4%) while maintaining an elite 17.7% rebounding rate. The biggest surprise may be his jump in assist rate, as he sees a 4.8% bump to an assist rate of 18.2%. With his do-it-all abilities and recent form, Carter is once again an elite mid-tier option despite the moderate price hike.
In 12 games as a starter this season, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl has averaged 8.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 25.4 minutes per game.
While not eye-popping numbers, they have improved over his last batch of starts. Over his last four games (all as a starter), Robinson-Earl has averaged 12.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 27.5 minutes per game. Going up against a Houston frontcourt that we love to attack with big men, Robinson-Earl is a very viable punt play with dual-position eligibility that may go overlooked.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,400)
- Luka Doncic ($11,300)
- Joel Embiid ($10,500)
- LaMelo Ball ($10,400)
- Paul George ($10,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,300)
- Luka Doncic ($10,600)
- Joel Embiid ($10,100)
- Dejounte Murray ($10,000)
- Jimmy Butler ($9,700)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x)
- Paul George (1.05x)
- Joel Embiid (1.05x)
- LaMelo Ball (1.1x)
With Monday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Sunday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $150k Fadeaway ($50k to first) Sunday night.
PG: Marcus Smart (40.00)
SG: Svi Mykhailiuk (32.00)
SF: Saddiq Bey (27.75)
PF: Jerami Grant (47.50)
C: Steven Adams (31.00)
G: Terence Davis (21.00)
F: LeBron James (59.75)
UTIL: Anthony Davis (51.50)
Total: 310.50
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $150k NBA Shot ($30k to first) Sunday night.
PG: Tyus Jones (21.6)
PG: Fred VanVleet (41.7)
SG: De’Anthony Melton (26.0)
SG: Svi Mykhailiuk (33.6)
SF: Dillon Brooks (35.7)
SF: LeBron James (59.5)
PF: Scottie Barnes (39.9)
PF: Anthony Davis (53.0)
C: Jaren Jackson (32.8)
Total: 343.8
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s NBA Jump Shot ($2k to first) Sunday night.
G: Dillon Brooks (52.93)
G: Desmond Bane (49.91)
G: Jrue Holiday (66.85)
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo (46.25)
F: LeBron James (64.84)
F: Scottie Barnes (63.38)
C: Anthony Davis (56.00)
Total: 400.16
We had two different slates Sunday, as both FanDuel and SuperDraft included the Bucks/Pacers game on their main slates, while DraftKings opted to leave it off.
The interesting part of Sunday’s slate was that zero players from that game made the winning lineup on FanDuel. The Bucks gained control of the game and never let go, leading to an unfavorable game script for spend-up players, as their minutes were capped by the blowout. Instead, the winner of the FanDuel Shot had four Grizzlies in the absence of Ja Morant, anchoring their lineup. Conversely, the winner on DraftKings had only one Memphis player, Steven Adams. He was by far the least popular option in this rotation, as he isn’t one to see a massive spike in usage with a guard out.
The Lakers forwards anchored the winning lineups on all three sites, while Scottie Barnes found himself in two of the three, as did his teammate Svi Mykhailiuk in the absences of OG Anunoby and Gary Trent.
