Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
We have 13 games on tap on Wednesday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for November 24 | NBA DFS First Look
Phoenix Suns @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PHO -7.5, total: 209.5
Pace: PHO (4th), CLE (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Evan Mobley and Collin Sexton remain out for the Cavs, while Darius Garland is listed as questionable and Cedi Osman is listed as probable.
- Frank Kaminsky has been ruled out for the Suns.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Indiana Pacers
IND -2.5, total: 217.5
Pace: LAL (2nd), IND (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Caris LeVert is listed as questionable for the Pacers.
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
CHA -7.5, total: 219.0
Pace: CHA (3rd), ORL (15th)
Situations to monitor:
- Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams remain out for the Magic.
- P.J. Washington is listed as doubtful for the Hornets.
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
BKN -1.5, total: 216.0
Pace: BKN (8th), BOS (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Jaylen Brown is questionable for the Celtics.
- Joe Harris and Bruce Brown have been ruled out for the Nets.
Chicago Bulls @ Houston Rockets
CHI -8.5, total: 213.0
Pace: CHI (16th), HOU (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Nikola Vucevic and Alex Caruso are listed as questionable for the Bulls.
Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -3, total: 221.5
Pace: TOR (28th), MEM (12th)
Situations to monitor:
- OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa are listed as questionable for the Raptors.
- Dillon Brooks is questionable for the Grizzlies while De’Anthony Melton remains out.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -14.5, total: 214.5
Pace: DET (18th), MIL (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart and Kelly Olynyk all remain out for the Pistons.
- Donte DiVincenzo remains out for the Bucks while the status of Brook Lopez is up in the air, though reports have him leaning toward doubtful.
Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIA -1.5, total: 212.5
Pace: MIA (27th), MIN (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Washington Wizards @ New Orleans Pelicans
WAS -5, total: 208.5
Pace: WAS (23rd), NOP (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Devonte’ Graham is listed as questionable for the Pelicans.
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
UTA -12.5, total: 209.5
Pace: UTA (18th), OKC (13th)
Situations to monitor:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is listed as out for the Thunder.
Atlanta Hawks @ San Antonio Spurs
ATL -4, total: 220.5
Pace: ATL (17th), SAS (5th)
Situations to monitor:
- De’Andre Hunter remains out for the Hawks.
- Doug McDermott is questionable for the Spurs.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -10.5, total: 218.5
Pace: PHI (30th), GSW (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- Seth Curry, Danny Green and Tobias Harris are questionable for the Sixers while Joel Embiid remains out.
- Andre Iguodala has been ruled out for the Warriors.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings
POR -2.5, total: 224.5
Pace: POR (14th), SAC (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- none
Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Wednesday.
Over the last two games, RJ Hampton has posted the highest offensive rating (109.3) among Magic players who have averaged at least 20 minutes per game.
The absence of Cole Anthony has helped Hampton grab additional minutes, and he’s made the most of them. In his 29.6 minutes per game over the last two contests, he’s posted a 20.7% usage rate en route to 16.5 points, 7.0 assists, 6.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. With Anthony ruled out once again and the Magic facing another large spread, the projected game script is pointing directly at another sizable workload for the second-year guard.
With Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and Seth Curry off the floor this season, Tyrese Maxey has a team-high 25.8% usage rate.
The Sixers have dealt with a slew of injuries this season, but one constant has been the stellar play of second-year point guard Tyrese Maxey. He’s routinely played over 40 minutes given the lack of depth and in addition to the 25.8% usage rate with the aforementioned guys out, he’s added a 19.8% assist rate and 1.00 DK points per minute. If he can flirt with 40 minutes once again, he should be viewed as one of the stronger mid-tier options on the slate.
Last game with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, Josh Giddey posted a 22.7% usage rate, 44.4% assist rate, and 9.9% rebounding rate.
Giddey’s rates didn’t skyrocket, but his all-around production and rates that accompanied it are far above those of an average $6,600 player. Because of his age (19), Giddey is one of the players on the Thunder that has been immune to the potential of a blowout, making a matchup with the Jazz not as daunting as it may seem on paper. With legitimate triple-double upside for a reasonable price, Giddey should be one of the most popular mid-tier options for the second straight slate.
In seven games as a starter this season, Kevin Huerter is averaging 15.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists in 30.1 minutes while shooting 60% from the field.
Huerter has been a trustworthy starter when called upon and with De’Andre Hunter ruled out for the foreseeable future, we could continue to see Huerter fill in as a starter on the wing. In a pace-up matchup against a favorable opponent in the Spurs, Huerter makes a ton of sense as a sub-$5,000 option with dual-position eligibility on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Over his last two games, Desmond Bane has averaged 24.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and a steal in 29.5 minutes per game.
In the absence of both De’Anthony Melton and Dillon Brooks, Bane has stepped up as an offensive anchor alongside Ja Morant. We saw a similar outburst to open the season, so this is nothing new. Bane has the ability to produce when called upon. With Brooks listed as questionable again Wednesday, we could see another heavy dose of Desmond Bane for only $5,500 on DraftKings.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,200)
- James Harden ($11,700)
- Steph Curry ($11,400)
- Kevin Durant ($11,200)
- Anthony Davis ($11,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)
- Anthony Davis ($11,000)
- Steph Curry ($10,500)
- Kevin Durant ($10,300)
- James Harden ($10,200)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- Steph Curry (1.05x)
- James Harden (1.05x)
With Wednesday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Tuesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $425k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
PG: Cory Joseph (29.50)
SG: CJ McCollum (46.75)
SF: Evan Fournier (36.00)
PF: Jeff Green (40.00)
C: Robert Covington (28.75)
G: Russell Westbrook (69.25)
F: Norman Powell (30.00)
UTIL: Paul George (47.25)
Total: 327.50
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k NBA Shot ($100k to first) Tuesday night.
PG: Russell Westbrook (61.6)
PG: Reggie Jackson (51.0)
SG: CJ McCollum (46.1)
SG: Tim Hardaway (25.0)
SF: Evan Fournier (31.8)
SF: Jeff Green (40.3)
PF: Julius Randle (45.7)
PF: Kristaps Porzingis (40.9)
C: Nerlens Noel (28.9)
Total: 371.3
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s Jump Shot ($2k to first) Tuesday night.
G: Russell Westbrook (73.43)
G: Alec Burks (56.05)
G: Reggie Jackson (84.48)
F: Paul George (49.09)
F: Julius Randle (55.78)
F: Jerami Grant (63.44)
C: JaMychal Green (41.50)
Total: 423.77
To call Tuesday’s slate a rollercoaster would be a massive understatement. Not only did overwhelming chalk fail (Talen Horton-Tucker, Cade Cunningham), but Nikola Jokic was ruled out roughly two hours after lock and with little room to pivot. Because of this, lineups that prepared for his absence vaulted to the top. This is evident in all three of the winners, as Jeff Green and JaMychal Green made their appearances. Russell Westbrook was the slate’s leading scorer from a raw fantasy points standpoint, but it was Reggie Jackson who picked up the slack of a struggling Paul George who led the way on SuperDraft.
