NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/4)

After a 10-game NBA DFS slate Monday, our attention shifts toward a modest five-game slate Tuesday. A couple of teams are missing a handful of players, which will open up plenty of avenues when it comes to constructing your lineups. And the best way to construct those lineups?

Using the FTN NBA Optimizer, of course. 

NBA Vegas Data for January 4 | NBA DFS First Look

Memphis Grizzlies @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -3, total: 215
Pace: MEM (9th), CLE (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson will remain out for the Grizzlies.
• Darius Garland has cleared protocols, practiced Monday and is questionable for Tuesday. Isaac Okoro (elbow) will be out for the Cavaliers, too.

San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -6.5, total: 224.4
Pace: SAS (4th), TOR (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Dejounte Murray (conditioning) has been ruled out for this game. Meanwhile, both Lonnie Walker and Doug McDermott are in the health and safety protocols.
• Toronto is finally healthy.

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks

NYK -1.5, total: 206.5
Pace: IND (23rd), NYK (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Julius Randle recently entered the health and safety protocols. He is now questionable for this game. Meanwhile, Kemba Walker will miss his third consecutive game. Finally, Mitchell Robinson has cleared the health and safety protocols and is listed as questionable.
• Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Chris Duarte and Jeremy Lamb have entered the health and safety protocols and will remain out.

Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans

PHX -8, total: 223.5
Pace: PHX (5th), NOP (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee recently entered the health and safety protocols. Jalen Smith has been fantastic over the last four games.

Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -6.5, total: 229
Pace: SAC (5th), LAL (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Richaun Holmes entered the health and safety protocols for the Kings.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Derrick White is averaging 17.5 potential assists per game over his last four outings

All four of those contests have come with Dejounte Murray sidelined, which is notable considering Murray has been ruled out for this game. White’s 17.5 potential assists per game during that span are good for the eighth-most in the NBA, while his assist rate jumps from 18% to 22% with Murray off the floor this season. And in that aforementioned four-game stretch, White is averaging a very strong 10.3 assists per game, while his touches per game have jumped up by around 14 from his season average.

De’Aaron Fox is averaging 4.2 transition points per game this season

That number is tied for the 12th most in all of basketball and while Fox has been very up-and-down this season, there is a lot to like in this spot. This game between the Lakers and Kings features two teams that rank inside the top-five in pace, which is great for Fox, who often looks to score in transition. Los Angeles is coughing up 20.3 transition points per game on the season, good for the sixth-most in the NBA, while opposing teams are getting out on the break 16.5% of the time against the Lakers, which is the fifth-highest rate in the league. Fox, meanwhile, is shooting nearly 58% from the field when in transition this season.

Jalen Smith is averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute over the last week

With Phoenix missing both Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee, Smith has started for the Suns in each of the last four games. During that stretch, he’s been fantastic, averaging 16 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 33 fantasy points per game. And over the last week, Smith is averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute, while also sporting a 21.3% usage rate and massive 43% rebounding rate. And during that same four-game stretch, Smith is averaging nearly 21 rebounding chances per game, good for the 10th most in all of basketball.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Duane Washington vs. NYK — With Brogdon, Levert, Duarte and Lamb sidelined for the Pacers, Washington has started each of the last two games, scoring 21 and 27.5 fantasy points. Assuming the Pacers remain short-handed, Washington will be a top-tier value option on this slate.

Brandon Clarke vs. CLE — Even with Memphis missing so many wings, Clarke continues to come off the bench but he’s just so productive on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Xavier Moon (34.5)
Anfernee Simons (60.75)
Nassir Little (39.75)
Kyle Kuzma (66.5)
Joel Embiid (71.25)
Trae Young (85.0)
Furkan Korkmaz (51.75)
Josh Jackson (37.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Anfernee Simons (55.1)
Trae Young (77.8)
Norman Powell (49.2)
Furkan Korkmaz (49.2)
Saddiq Bey (51.6)
Miles Bridges (59.8)
Taurean Prince (33.3)
Kyle Kuzma (59.8)
Joel Embiid (67.0)

With Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum out for Portland, it isn’t too surprising to see Anfernee Simons land on both optimals. With both players off the floor this season, Simons’ usage rate is hovering around the 33% mark, and he was fantastic Monday, scoring 43 points to go along with three rebounds and seven assists.