NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/16)

After a nine-game NBA slate on Saturday, there are just three games on Sunday. But for such a small slate, there is still plenty to keep an eye on. Be sure to keep tabs on news throughout the day and take advantage of the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings

SAC -6, total: 238.5

Pace: HOU (3rd), SAC (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• Richaun Holmes (conditioning) is listed as questionable for the Kings.

Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets

UTA -3.5, total: 223

Pace: UTA (8th), DEN (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Rudy Gobert is available for the Jazz, while Hassan Whiteside is now in the health and safety protocols.
• For Denver, Austin Rivers is questionable with an illness, while JaMychal Green is in the health and safety protocols.

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -5.5, total: 218.5

Pace: GSW (16th), MIN (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Stephen Curry (hand) will miss this game, while Draymond Green could miss another game with his calf injury. Finally, Gary Payton is listed as questionable.

Stats to Know

Jordan Poole is sporting a 32% usage rate with Stephen Curry off of the floor this season.

Of course, the Warriors have been without Klay Thompson for the majority of the season, and his return means that he’ll be cutting into how often Poole gets the ball. But with Curry ruled out for this game, the game should run through both Poole and Thompson. Poole is also averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute with Curry off the floor this season, while his usage rate climbs to a 12% mark. And like Curry and Thompson, Poole does a lot of his work off of screens. He’s averaging the sixth-most points per game off the play type on the year (2.8). Minnesota, meanwhile, is coughing up the eighth-most points per possession (1.03) and eighth-worst field goal percentage (42.2%) to opposing players off screens. 

Christian Wood is shooting 50.5% as the roll man in the pick-and-roll.

Wood only logged 26 minutes when these teams met on Friday but he was insanely efficient, scoring 43 fantasy points in that truncated span. He got into some foul trouble but assuming he can play his usual minutes in this rematch, the ceiling is massive. Wood is shooting nearly 51% out of the pick-and-roll while averaging a strong 1.12 points per possession off the play type. Meanwhile, Sacramento is allowing the sixth-worst field goal percentage to opposing roll men out of the pick-and-roll on the season (55.4%), as well as the fourth-most points per possession (1.20).

Value Plays

Monte Morris vs UTA

Monte Morris has only logged 22 minutes in each of his last two games, but both contests were massive blowouts where he didn’t even see the floor in the fourth quarter. Assuming this game stays close, Morris should play 30-plus minutes and on a three-game slate, he currently stands out as perhaps the top value play on the board.

Jeff Green vs UTA

With Michael Porter sidelined, Jeff Green has played a larger role for the Nuggets. But now with JaMychal Green in the health and safety protocols, the veteran should continue to start and play upwards of 30 minutes. He is coming off a great game on Saturday and is under $4,000 on DraftKings for Sunday’s slate.

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

• Anfernee Simons (55.5)
• Ayo Dosunmu (43.5)
• Alec Burks (41.25)
• Jeff Green (39.75)
• Nikola Vucevic (50)
• Bones Hyland (50)
• Jayson Tatum (48)
• Darius Garland (63.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

• Bones Hyland (46)
• James Harden (59.1)
• Ayo Dosunmu (39.8)
• Darius Garland (61)
• Caleb Martin (37.9)
• DeMar DeRozan (44.1)
• Jeff Green (38.6)
• Robert Covington (43.8)
• Nikola Vucevic (51.2)

Darius Garland kept rolling, as he has now scored at least 50 fantasy points in three straight contests. His price tag was way too low ahead of Saturday’s game and he delivered with a huge stat line of 27 points, 18 assists, and five rebounds while recording 14 points and 10 assists in the third quarter alone. Meanwhile, with Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso sidelined for the Bulls, rookie Ayo Dosunmu once again took advantage of an uptick in playing time. He scored 21 points to go along with 10 assists and four rebounds in 40 minutes.