NBA DFS Preview – First Look (1/15)

Saturday should be a fun day, as we have NFL Wild Card action along with a solid nine-game NBA DFS slate. Be sure to check out FTN for content throughout the day, especially the FTN NBA Optimizer to help make the most sense of this slate. 

NBA Vegas Data for January 15 | NBA DFS First Look

Portland Trail Blazers @ Washington Wizards

WAS -7, total: 217.5
Pace: POR (15th), WAS (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Bradley Beal remains in the health and safety protocols for the Wizards.
• Portland will remain without Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Norman Powell and Larry Nance.

New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -2.5, total: 213
Pace: NYK (26th), ATL (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Clint Capela has missed the last three games with an ankle injury and is questionable for Saturday.
• Kemba Walker will remain sidelined for New York.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -6.5, total: 228.5
Pace: NOP (17th), BKN (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyrie Irving will be out for the Nets since this is a home game. Meanwhile, LaMarcus Aldridge (foot) will miss his fifth straight game, while Nicolas Claxton (hamstring) is questionable.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat

MIA -2, total: 208.5
Pace: PHI (28th), MIA (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jimmy Butler (ankle) returned to the lineup Friday but keep an eye on his status on the second end of a back-to-back.
• Matisse Thybulle exited Friday’s game with a shoulder injury, while Danny Green didn’t play with a hip injury.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

CLE -5, total: 210
Pace: CLE (23rd), OKC (13th)

Situations to monitor:

• Rajon Rondo (hamstring) is questionable for the Cavaliers.

Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics

BOS -5, total: 216.5
Pace: CHI (19th), BOS (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Zach LaVine suffered a knee injury Friday and did not travel with the team to Boston for this game. Meanwhile, Lonzo Ball is listed as questionable.
• Marcus Smart should remain sidelined for the Celtics.

Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs

SAS -2, total: 217.5
Pace: LAC (10th), SAS (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Derrick White is close to a return for the Spurs and could be back for this game.
• Luke Kennard remains in the health and safety protocols for the Clippers.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -4, total: 224.5
Pace: LAL (1st), DEN (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Will Barton is listed as probable with a neck injury.
• Carmelo Anthony is questionable with a back injury, while Dwight Howard is also listed as questionable for the Lakers.

Orlando Magic @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -10.5, total: 208
Pace: ORL (17th), DAL (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• Both Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba are once again questionable for the Magic.
• Kristaps Porzingis (health and safety protocols) is questionable for Dallas.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

DeMar DeRozan is sporting a 37.3% usage rate with Zach LaVine off the floor

LaVine will be out for the Bulls Saturday, opening up more opportunities for DeRozan, Lonzo Ball and Nikola Vucevic. DeRozan’s usage rate climbs by over 6% with LaVine off the floor, putting him at a massive 37.3% usage rate to go along with a solid 15% rebounding rate, 13% assist rate and 1.30 fantasy points per minute in the split. After a pair of down games, DeRozan’s price tag has dropped down below $9,000 on DraftKings, making him a very strong play here Saturday.

Darius Garland is averaging 93.3 touches per game over his last seven games

During that same span, only Toronto’s Fred VanVleet is averaging more touches per game than Garland, as he continues to dominate the usage, especially since the Cavaliers lost Ricky Rubio for the season. And with Rajon Rondo out, Cleveland really doesn’t have a backup point guard, which should lead to huge minutes for Garland each night. In that aforementioned seven-game span, Garland is also averaging 8.7 minutes of possession per game, trailing only Trae Young and James Harden, while also ranking inside the top-five in both average seconds per touch (5.62) and average dribbles per touch (5.27). Finally, Garland is averaging about two points per game off screens, while no team in basketball is coughing up more points per game off the play type than the Thunder (6.0).

RJ Barrett is sporting a 28% usage rate over his last three games

With Kemba Walker sidelined, Barrett has taken on a much larger role as of late. He’s sporting a 28% usage rate over his last three games and during that same span, Barrett has attempted 22, 20 and 21 field goals. With Walker and Derrick Rose off the floor this season, Barrett’s usage rate is at 27.5% and is averaging just over a fantasy point per minute in the split. And over the last week of action, Barrett’s usage rate is just over 29% while averaging a solid 1.09 fantasy points per minute. Walker has been ruled out again for Saturday, which means Barrett should remain busy against the Hawks. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

De’Andre Hunter vs. NYK — With Cam Reddish traded, Hunter got the start Friday and logged 30 minutes, scoring 30 fantasy points. His DraftKings price tag Friday was $3,400 and now he is $3,000, which makes absolutely zero sense. 

Coby White vs. BOS — White is more of a mid-range value but he started the second half of Chicago’s game on Friday with Zach LaVine out. White is sporting a solid 23.1% usage rate with LaVine off the floor this season and with Alex Caruso still sidelined, White’s minutes should be solidified here, especially if Lonzo Ball is also ruled out.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Darius Garland (54.5)
Justin Holiday (47.0)
Jonathan Kuminga (42.25)
Marvin Bagley (48.75)
Moritz Wagner (36.75)
Dejounte Murray (60.5)
Jae’Sean Tate (49.0)
Luka Doncic (57.0)

FanDuel Optimal Lineup

Jalen Brunson (48.5)
Fred VanVleet (51.0)
Darius Garland (53.8)
Dejounte Murray (56.8)
Jonathan Kuminga (45.1)
Justin Holiday (48.4)
Marvin Bagley (48.1)
Jae’Sean Tate (49.0)
Deandre Ayton (48.9)

With Sacramento’s frontcourt depleted, Marvin Bagley drew a start and reminded everyone that he still has plenty of fantasy upside when he gets the minutes. In 33 minutes, Bagley scored 26 points to go along with 13 rebounds, one assist and a pair of blocks.