NBA DFS Preview: Atlantic Division

It’s a bit crazy to think about where we are today. While some may feel it’s been a long time since we had NBA action, to me it feels like only yesterday I was sweating one of my better lineups of the year getting ready to watch the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder play; a game I had heavy exposure to. That game never started, and what followed suit has probably been the strangest few months of our collective lives. The return of basketball doesn’t mean normalcy, but it’s a start, and it’s a pretty great feeling to be writing about it again. 

This is the first of a six-part series where each member of the FTN NBA DFS staff will break down each team by division from a daily fantasy perspective. Let’s start with the Atlantic Division. 

Toronto Raptors

Coach: Nick Nurse
Record: 46-18, second in the East
Projected finish: Second seed
Players not in bubble: Dewan Hernandez
Projected starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka/Marc Gasol
The Raptors began to alternate starting Ibaka and Gasol as the season stopped. I expect them to continue to play it by matchup with Ibaka likely getting the majority of the starts. Their minutes will likely remain similar though. 
Bench: Ibaka/Gasol, Norman Powell, Terence Davis, Patrick McCaw, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Chris Boucher, Matt Thomas, Malcolm Miller
Team pace: 14th, 100.87
Team defensive rating: 2nd, 104.9
Team offensive rating: 12th, 111.3
Schedule breakdown: Lakers, Heat, Magic, Celtics, Grizzlies, Bucks, 76ers, Nuggets

This is not a DFS-friendly schedule for the Raptors heading into the playoffs, with every opponent being in the top half of the NBA in defensive rating. They do however get two decent pace-up spots against the Grizzlies and Bucks. The Raptors have a three-game lead in the Atlantic over the Celtics, so I’d expect that fourth game on their schedule against Boston to feel like a playoff tuneup. Their least appealing matchup to attack is against Orlando who are the fifth-slowest team in the NBA while ranking 10th in defensive rating. 

Key notes

Disregarding Kawhi Leonard last year, traditionally Nurse has not been one to rest his starters much unless there is zero meaning to the game. The Raptors won’t challenge the Bucks for the 1-seed but don’t have the luxury of “taking it easy” with a three-game lead over the Celtics in the Atlantic. I fully expect the Raptors starters to see their typical minutes load unlike other contenders in the bubble. 

Before the NBA was suspended, Powell was becoming much more of a scorer rather than his traditional three and D like trait while playing heavy minutes with VanVleet out. Depending on price, Powell is a really intriguing low-owned target to consider early in the bubble as I expect him to maintain his heavy usage and scoring while coming off the bench with VanVleet healthy again. 

It was Ibaka starting over Gasol before the stoppage and, while I think Nurse will play it by matchup, I expect Ibaka to continue to start. Both players will see similar minutes however Ibaka’s usage in his minutes were impressive. Against a team like the Lakers who either play a mobile big or go small, I expect Nurse to run Ibaka more than Gasol as he’s less of a liability switching on screens. It may come as a surprise, but particularly in meaningful games coaches tend to favor the better defensive matchup. We could see Gasol play more minutes against teams like Memphis, Philly and Denver as all three feature “slower” bigs. 

Overall, unless Nurse does end up easing players back or even “resting” players, I don’t expect Toronto to be one of the more appealing teams to target in DFS. If one of Lowry or VanVleet sit, the other becomes an elite target while Siakam and Powell become secondary beneficiaries. I just hope if the Raptors are locked into their playoff seed at some point, we see Nurse unleash the point-per-minute god Boucher. 

On the opposite end, the Raptors remain a mediocre team to attack in DFS as they’re elite defensively while playing at a mediocre pace. In fact, according to FTN’s Advanced DvP (insert eye emoji, stay tuned!), the Raptors are top 10 against almost every trait. Where Toronto has been most susceptible to fantasy points is against shooters as they rank 20th in the NBA. This makes total sense as the Raptors are a team-oriented defensive team that collapses the paint leaving shooters open at times. This actually correlates well with the Crafty Finisher trait as Toronto is the 10th-best team against players who are efficient around the rim. 

Boston Celtics

Coach: Brad Stevens
Record: 43-21, third in the East
Projected finish: Third seed
Players not in bubble: None
Projected starters: Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis
Bench: Marcus Smart, Brad Wanamaker, Enes Kanter, Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye, Carsen Edwards, Javonte Green, Tremont Waters, Romeo Langford, Robert Williams, Tacko Fall
Team pace: 17th, 99.77
Team defensive rating: 4th, 106.2
Team offensive rating: 5th, 112.13
Schedule breakdown: Bucks, Blazers, Heat, Nets, Raptors, Magic, Grizzlies, Wizards

The Celtics have one of the more DFS-friendly schedules in the Atlantic as they get plus-matchups against the Blazers, Nets, Wizards and Grizzlies, with the first three considered elite. They also get a pace-up spot against the Bucks in their opener which I expect to be played at a bit of a lesser intensity. 

Key notes

Based off the Celtics schedule, if Brad Stevens decides to rest anyone — most likely Walker — the Celtics are going to become extremely chalky. Remember, Kemba has been battling a lingering knee injury throughout the season. Although he claimed yesterday that his knee feels great, we’ve seen Brad Stevens urge on the side of caution with his players. 

While Smart and Wanamaker become chalk values in this scenario because of their minutes increase, the guy who typically goes under owned when Walker is out is Brown. Brown ends up becoming a more efficient scorer (2.6% TS% increase) with Kemba off the floor as it allows him to handle the ball more and attack the rim rather than stay out on the perimeter and spot up shoot (something he has improved on though). While Tatum and Smart are the smarter plays, Brown is one way to try and gain leverage especially in pace-up spots where he’ll see increased defensive and rebounding opportunities. 

Kanter is an interesting cheap center to consider as DK has him priced at the minimum on opening night. Kanter won’t play a ton but even 15-20 minutes a night means he carries a decent floor with legit upside in games against the Blazers, Nets and Wizards. 

It feels like Tatum is on the verge of superstardom and while this is one of those dreaded “gut feelings,” I think there is a real chance we see Tatum explode during the restart. Tatum’s biggest risks are that he’s a bit scoring-dependent and the Celtics have multiple primary ball-handlers, which is multiplied by the fact Stevens preaches team basketball. However, when games start to have a bit more meaning we always see stars see a bit more usage. Tatum will start in the $7-8k price range and if his USG increases into the 30s (28.6 now) we should see his FPPM rise to the 1.32-plus range (1.21 now), which ideally should mean his price should be in the $9k range or higher. It’s a bit of a gut call, but we could see some early Tatum value particularly in the Celtics plus-matchups. 

The Celtics are never a team we really want to attack in DFS as they are elite defensively and play at a mediocre pace. View the Celtics in a similar fashion as the Raptors above. 

Philadelphia 76ers

Coach: Brett Brown
Record: 39-26, sixth in the East
Projected finish: Fifth seed
Players not in bubble: Zhaire Smith
Projected starters: Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid or Simmons, Richardson, Matisse Thybulle/Furkan Korkmaz, Harris, Embiid
The Sixers have shown multiple looks with their starting lineup and will most likely settle with Shake Milton as that fifth starter. Don’t be shocked if we see Thybulle or Korkmaz though. One thing we do know, Al Horford will be coming off the bench. 
Bench: Horford, Korkmaz, Thybulle, Glenn Robinson III, Alec Burks, Mike Scott, Raul Neto, Kyle O'Quinn, Norvel Pelle, Marial Shayok
Team pace: 19th, 99.38
Team defensive rating: 6th, 10.6
Team offensive rating: 18th, 109.7
Schedule breakdown: Pacers, Spurs, Wizards, Magic, Blazers, Suns, Raptors, Rockets

Positive matchups with the Spurs, Wizards, Blazers and Suns all stand out. The most interesting game is perhaps opening night against the Pacers as both teams carry the same record. Overall, the Sixers have a favorable DFS schedule in the bubble. 

Key notes

One statement that has stood out to me the most since teams entered the bubble was the fact that Brown wants Embiid in the 38-minute range come playoff time. Embiid is a 1.5-plus FPPM producer as it is, and in meaningful games sees his usage approach 40. 38 minutes at 1.5 FPPM is 57 fantasy points, that’s at his mean FPPM too. While it might sound like a stretch, the Sixers open their season against the Pacers, whom they share the same record with; it wouldn’t shock me to see Embiid come out in the 34-minute range on opening night. Also, the Pacers rank 30th against Rim Protectors, 24th against Skilled Centers, 27th against Rebounders and 27th against Superstars according to Advanced DvP. Embiid opens the bubble with a monster matchup and the potential to see increased minutes. 

It’s very clear Horford will be coming off the bench with the Sixers playing Simmons at quote-unquote “PF” for major minutes. Ignore the term PF, Simmons is the Sixers primary ball-handler. What it does impact though is the fact Simmons will be used off the ball more in pick and roll situations which has been something he has excelled in. Simmons was brutally underowned before the suspension while putting up elite numbers. He will always be overlooked whenever Embiid is playing but he carries a similar ceiling particularly in pace-up spots like the Wizards. 

There will be some value between Milton, Thybulle and Korkmaz, but I fully expect Milton to continue to see the majority of the minutes as that “fifth” starter/finisher. Unfortunately, Milton was producing a bit too well before the season suspended, so I’d expect him to be priced around his ceiling to start. 

Unless Embiid sits a game or two, I’m not going to have a ton of interest in Harris or Richardson unless they are mispriced. Horford off the bench is actually a slight detriment to both as Richardson would run the second unit as the primary ball-handler when Horford would start. 

The top three teams in the Atlantic are similar matchups to attack. View the Sixers right up there with the Celtics and Raptors are mediocre teams to attack in DFS ranking towards the bottom in almost all Advanced DvP Traits.

Brooklyn Nets

Coach: Jacque Vaughn
Record: 30-34, seventh in the East
Projected finish: Eighth seed
Players not in bubble: Can I say everyone? Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan, Nicolas Claxton, Taurean Prince, Michael Beasley (what a stint it was, though), Justin Anderson
Projected starters: Caris LeVert, Garrett Temple, Joe Harris, Rodions Kurucs, Jarrett Allen
Bench: Chris Chiozza, Tyler Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Dzanan Musa, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Wilson Chandler, Jaylen Hands
Team pace: 10th, 101.51
Team defensive rating: 8th, 108.3
Team offensive rating: 22nd, 107.8
Schedule breakdown: Magic, Wizards, Bucks, Celtics, Kings, Clippers, Magic, Blazers

The Nets get the painfully boring Magic twice but do however get a lovely, lovely matchup against the Wizards (track meet?). I’d expect that Nets-Wizards matchup to be heavily owned. They end the season with another plus-matchup against the Blazers. 

Key notes

The Nets are trotting out a combination of a retirement tour, a G League team and LeVert and Harris. That said, they are going to be one of the most fun teams to target and attack in the bubble. 

LeVert is going to be chalk, and for good reason. His usage with Irving, Dinwiddie and Prince off the floor is an insane 41.5%. In comparison, that is roughly 5% higher than both Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden. Where you can snag some value in LeVert is if he’s in the $8.8-$9.2k range as people might view that as overpriced. That’s where we pounce as LeVert is a $10k-plus player with this current Nets roster assuming we see him play his normal minutes. 

While Harris will also be a popular play, depending on how many minutes Crawford plays, Temple is a really interesting early bubble target. Temple is around 0.9 FPPM with Irving, Dinwiddie and Prince off the floor and will likely play in the 30-plus-minute range. Temple will be the secondary ball-handler to LeVert with the starters as well. I’d expect Temple to start off in the $4.5-5k range, which means we should be able to get some early value out of him. 

We can also expect Allen to be one of the heavier owned players early in the bubble, as the Nets don’t have a backup center and Allen is an elite PPM producer. If Allen is able to eclipse the 30-minute mark then he will be in the $8k-plus range very soon. That said, it wouldn’t shock me if chalk Allen got into foul trouble and if that scenario does play out we will see a combination of Kurucs and Chandler as the Nets small-ball center. Anderson was expected to take this role, but he’s no longer available after testing positive for COVID-19. Not much has been said but I expect Chandler to be the Nets “backup center.”

If he opens up at the minimum, which he likely will, Chiozza will instantly be one of the highest-owned players on his slate. Chiozza will likely see 20-plus minutes off the bench as the Nets “sixth man” with a decent shot at seeing closing minutes. There is also a chance Chiozza ends up starting. Listen, there isn’t anything sexy in terms of targeting him but any primary ball-handler in a Nets game environment at minimum price is tough to fade. 

The Nets are going to be an absolute darling of a team to attack in the bubble. They’re going to stink, they’re going to play fast and they’re going to be plenty fun to watch. Whenever you see the Nets on the slate, strongly consider targeting players on the opposing team. And remember, always attack the Nets at center.

New York Knicks

Just kidding.