Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Mikal Bridges Over 29.5 Points + Assists
(-106, FanDuel Sportsbook)
There was no player I bet on more this year after the trade deadline than Mikal Bridges. He has an elite role here and is more than capable of playing monster minutes, in a playoff atmosphere I would almost be more shocked to see him not play 40 minutes. My model his him for 35 points alone, which seems like a lot, but he has continued to produce all year and if he continues to have a 28-30% usage rate and play 38-plus minutes, he has monster upside.
Evan Mobley Over 8.5 Rebounds
(+105, Caesars)
Like Bridges, Evan Mobley will also likely play as many minutes as he can handle in a playoff atmosphere. I have him for 38, but again it would not be surprising to see 40-plus minutes out of the big man here.
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3s
(+105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Plus money on a three-point prop for the greatest shooter of all time in a great matchup? Sign me up all day. During the regular season, the Kings were 25th in 3PT% allowed and 21st in 3PT allowed, so not only will Stephen Curry have plenty of volume, the matchup also indicates a spot for increased efficiency as well.
