Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! There are just two more weeks of NBA basketball, as most teams have 10 or fewer games left to play. The standings are finally starting to take shape, but there are still a few tight races left to run.
Monday’s slate offers us a bit of a rough slate of games. We have a potential playoff series preview, an almost certain preview of a Play-In Tournament game, games with teams with questionable motives and games with bad teams. It’s always good to be cautious this late in the season, and as you’ll see below there are even a few games I’m crossing off immediately.
Let’s go through all six matchups, see what we can expect, and try to find some value in the betting markets. Of course, since it’s Monday you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions or suggestions, please leave them in the comment section of that video and I’ll get back to you ASAP. Now, onto the hoops!
NBA Best Bets for Monday
Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons
Current Line – Pistons -2, 216
My Projection – Grizzlies 114, Pistons 111
Key Injuries – Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Simone Fontecchio, Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart are out. Cade Cunningham and Santi Aldama are questionable.
The Pistons had a fun stretch in the second week of March during which they won three of four games outright. That said, they have had the worst record in the NBA all season and are in no danger of jeopardizing the best chance possible for the No. 1 draft pick next season. That gave them an opportunity to push their young roster to play hard and try to win games. Tanking is still the best way to get star players, but it’s also important to instill winning habits into young players. This was the rare situation where a team can still have the best odds for the top pick and play to win games. Unfortunately, that time is over thanks to injuries and an abundance of caution around injuries. Cade Cunningham, the best and most important player on the roster, hurt his knee a few weeks ago and the Pistons, rightfully so, have been reticent to play him. This late in the season it’s not worth the risk of a more serious injury. Detroit is also missing several support players and is forced to use Tosan Evbuomwan, Chimezie Metu and Marcus Sasser for 30-plus minutes per night. The Pistons are back to being bad and probably the worst team in the NBA with or without Cade Cunningham.
No team has had more injury problems than the Grizzlies. They have used 45 different starting lineups this season, which is a new starting five every 1.6 games. I was unable to prove that is the all-time NBA record, but I have to believe it is the record or very close to it. That is a disaster for any team, but less so for good organizations that stockpile talent and implement a good system of play. Memphis has one of the best front offices in the league and drafts as well as any team. Taylor Jenkins is a great coach who knows how to develop talent while keeping young players accountable to playing winning basketball. He has found a way to win games, although not many, using players that were not likely to play much, if any, NBA level basketball this season. Those players know this is their chance to show the league what they can do and that’s a great recipe to create a motivated team late in the season. Combine that with a little injury luck bring back Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke and this team is much better than their opponent tonight. I make the Grizzlies three-point favorites and the moneyline has a “+” in front of it. As crazy as this might sound, I’m betting on the Memphis Grizzlies to win.
Bet
Memphis Grizzlies ML (+110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic -16.5, 209.5
This is quite an interesting set of odds. 16.5 points is a very high spread for a total of 209.5. 209.5 is a pretty low total for a game with a spread of 16.5 points. Generally, for a team to win by 17-plus points they have to score a lot of points and often enough points to drag the game total over 210 almost on their own. 299 times a team has won a game by 15-plus points, and the average total in those games was 228 points. These odds are very much on the edges of the probability distribution aka we’re dealing with an oddity which is difficult to handicap. The Magic beat the Grizzlies Saturday 118-88, which means Orlando won by 30 points in a game with only 206 points in total. Maybe that happens again, maybe it doesn’t. I really don’t know, so I really can bet on this game.
Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets +17, 218.5
Regular readers will remember that I am no longer betting games involving the Charlotte Hornets for the rest of the season. My model, for some reason, almost always shows value on the Hornets who are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games. Monday is no exception. Joe Mazzulla has said that he plans to use the rest of the season to experiment with schemes to prepare for the playoffs, which means the Celtics are not focused on winning games by margin. That said, they could certainly mess around and still win this game by 25-plus points. That’s too much uncertainty so no bets for me here.
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers -12.5, 227
I’m not betting Nets anymore. They don’t have their first-round pick next season, so they have no reason to tank. Brooklyn is 5.5 games behind the Atlanta Hawks for the 10 seed, which is the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. That means the Nets have no real motivation to win either. Their performances have been all of the map and it’s almost impossible to know what to expect from them. I make the Pacers 13-point favorites with a total of 227 but make the Nets care and somehow make enough 3-pointers to cover a big spread and get this total over its current number. I’m passing on this game and probably all games featuring the Nets going forward.
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans -1.5, 223.5
One of the reasons I built a model was to create a consistent tool based on hard data to check my gut instincts. This game is exactly why I need it. The Suns have been one of the worst defensive teams since the All-Star break and struggle against physical teams with big players who attack the rim. That is exactly how you would describe the Pelicans. Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas should have a field day in the paint. My gut thinks New Orleans is the better team, but my model has the Suns as two-point favorites with a total of 222. Phoenix has a good offense and does so without having to push the pace. They’ll happily play a slow pace with the Pelicans and rely on their scorers to do their job in the halfcourt. I’m conflicted here and that’s never good for finding value.
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls -2, 221.5
Are the Hawks better with Trae Young? I’m not sure of that, but I am sure they are not worse without Trae Young. Atlanta has been quietly winning a lot lately. They are 4-1 in their last five games and are in the top half of the league in net rating since the All-Star break. The Bulls are all over the place. In their last four games they lost to the Washington Wizards, beat the Indiana Pacers by 26, lost to the Brooklyn Nets by 17, and beat the Timberwolves in Minnesota. I have no idea what to do with that. My projections are close to market, and I don’t have a great handle on the Bulls. I’ll pass on this game.
