Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Thursdays are usually smaller slates of action in the NBA, but we have a solid six games this time to go through. One thing that really stands out about these matchups is the projected totals. Five of these six games have projected totals between 232 and 239.5 points. The median average point total for NBA teams in 2022 is currently 114.4, which means the median score of games averages someway just north of 228 per game. That is why today is a good day to target some scoring overs as the projections are pointing in that direction. Here are three of my favorite NBA best bets from the FTN Player Prop model.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets
Terry Rozier Over 21.5
Terry Rozier finds himself in a great spot taking on a Pistons defense that is giving up a top-10 amount of production to opposing guards. The Hornets have faced the Pistons three times in 2022-23 and in each game Rozier has scored 22 or more points, which would cash for him at this number. Rozier has 20 or more points in four of his last five games. The Hornets averaged just over 102 in those games, and they project for 115 Thursday, which is 10% above their norm. In a spot this good, Rozier should continue to produce and reach his upside.
Mitchell Robinson Over 8.5 Points
Mitchell Robinson has reached double-digit points in six of his last seven games. He lacks elite scoring upside, but 8.5 is a really low number. He has averaged just over 27 minutes of action per game on the season, but in the last seven games that number is more like 32 minutes on average. Robinson is a low-volume shooter, but super-efficient scorer. This is likely because all his shot attempts come from very close range. He’s only missed four shots in the last seven games. Despite not taking double-digit attempts in any of them, he is still managing to score close to double-digits and draws a good matchup here against a weak interior defense for a Sacramento team that plays at a faster pace.
Jrue Holiday Over 20.5
Jrue Holiday can score. He does not always force the issue offensively because of the role he plays, but when asked he can put up points. In games Jrue Holiday plays with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor, he averages 19 points on the season. When Giannis is out, Jrue averages 25 points per game and that is a massive uptick from his normal levels. The Nets are going to be playing very short handed today as the injury list for them includes Spencer Dinwiddie, Nic Claxton, Cameron Johnson, Royce O’Neale and Ben Simmons. That is five guys who play a lot of minutes most nights. Sure, blowout risk is concerning, but they still have to score points to get to that level and without Giannis, Jrue Holiday tends to be one of the guys who gives them that upside in scoring.
