Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have seven games in the NBA Wednesday, but it might not be the best overall slate. We have three teams that are favorites by about 10 points, so those games could get away from the underdogs. We are also approaching the one-month-remaining mark on the regular season, which means team motivations and rest days are starting to become a bigger problem.
Some of these games do not have many props listed yet because of some of the injury situations. Your best way to stay on top of these injuries is in the FTNBets Discord for subscribers. If you would like to check it out for free, use this link to sign up for the three-day trail. With the available props, here are Wednesday’s NBA best bets.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets Today
Jonas Valanciunas Over 13.5 Points
(-125, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This number is already up to 14.5 on most sites. Jonas Valanciunas had been out with an injury but returned last game to a very thin frontcourt. Larry Nance and Zion Williamson remain out, so the minutes, rebounds and points are all there. He dropped 19 points in his return, but the more important thing is he played 32 minutes. Dallas ranks in the bottom third of the league defensively for points allowed per 100 possessions and they have been even worse since the trade deadline. They are also playing at a faster pace. A faster pace and a worse defense are going to equate to more points scored and Valanciunas is a guy who could take advantage of that weak interior.
Al Horford Over 9.5 Points
(-115, PointsBet)
Robert Williams is out for about the next week. That should continue to give Al Horford increased run. He has not seen less than 30 minutes in a game that was not a blowout since all the way back in mid-January. Horford has topped 20 points in two of the last three games. He’s scored double-digits in six of the last eight. He draws a soft matchup against Portland, who ranks near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories, including points allowed per 100 possessions.
Evan Mobley Over 15.5 Points
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This number is up to 16.5 on many books, with PointsBet having that higher number at the same -115 payout as DK does for 15.5. The other books at 15.5 are all over -125 and everyone who has it at 16.5 has this at -105 or worse. Evan Mobley had a big game last time out, topping 20 points. Over the last four games, Mobley is averaging just shy of 36 minutes and 18 points. On the season he averages 34 minutes and 16 points, and the recent uptick seems sustainable. With Kevin Love out of town, Mobley is not only playing a few more minutes than he was per game, but he has attempted at least 14 shots in each, which is also up from his 11.9 average on the season. To top it off, the Miami Heat defense has fallen off a cliff the last two weeks. They rank fifth on the season for opponents points allowed per 100 possessions, but are 24th in the league over the last two weeks, giving up 119.5, 7 full points above where they sit for the season.
