Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! TNT Tuesdays are back with a few games that should be very good. All four games feature teams fighting for the best seed possible for the playoffs. It’s March, so the injury report is long, but for the most part, the best players for every team will be on the court and motivated to play their best basketball.
This is a good night to watch and learn what plays, schemes or lineups have been saving for big games. Most of these games will have a “playoff” feel, which means teams will slow down the pace of their offenses to hunt for the very best shots. That means we get to see the very best of what everyone has to offer and luckily for us, announced and presented by the best TV crews there are. It’s going to be an exciting night of basketball and one of the first nights in a few weeks that I will be glued to the couch watching every play closely.
Let’s go through each game, see what we might expect, and hopefully find some value in the betting markets.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat
Current Line – Warriors -3, 217.5
My Projection – Heat 109, Warriors 107
Key Injuries – Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Duncan Robinson are out. Kevin Love, Caleb Martin, Jaime Jaquez and Trayce Jackson-Davis are questionable.
The Warriors are suddenly in danger of missing the postseason. Heading into the All-Star break, they had a 5.5 game lead over the Houston Rockets for the 10 seed, which is the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. That lead has all but dried up as the Warriors are now just half a game ahead of the Rockets. Golden State has the tiebreaker over Houston, which is worth half a game in the standings, but this race is much closer than the Warriors want it to be. They are 3-6 in their last nine games with losses to the Spurs, Bulls and Pacers. Golden State were comfortable favorites and healthy for all three of those games which is disconcerting at best. Steph Curry continues to be great, but support players like Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski and Andrew Wiggins are struggling. May opponents have made the proper adjustments or the great play we saw earlier or last season from each of those players were short peaks and not indicative of potential long term success, but they need to at least get close to those levels. To make things even worse, the Warriors just started a five-game road trip packed into just eight days, part of which involves a game in Orlando Wednesday. Motivation may be at all time high for this team, but there’s never been more pressure and the schedule is rough.
The Heat are similarly in a close race for playoff seeding, but they are not at risk of falling out of the Play-In Tournament. In fact, the Heat are just one game behind the Indiana Pacers for the 6 seed in the Eastern Conference, which would put them into the playoffs without need to win any extra games. Miami understands the importance of getting direct entry into the postseason after being down 10 points to the Chicago Bulls with about two minutes left in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament game last season. The Heat were close to missing the playoffs altogether even though they did make the NBA Finals. Erick Spoelstra and the coaching staff rested players all season knowing that the ultimate price is playoff victory, but we’ve seen them eschew that a bit in the last few weeks. I can only assume that means they know the importance of getting up the 6th seed which means they too should be greatly motivated to win this game. The Injury report doesn’t look great for them, but Bam Adebayo is healthy and although Jimmy Butler missed shootaround with an illness, he is listed as probable and I expect him to play. Caleb Martin and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have been taking turns playing games while the other rests. Martin played in the last game and I expect either he will play again or Jaquez will, which gives the Heat a solid nine-man rotation. This should be a close game, but I think the market has the wrong team favored. Again, the bench is a little short, but there is plenty of talent left and the Heat matchup well with the Warriors. They have schemes that can make Curry uncomfortable and Bam isn’t bothered by Draymond. Give me the points with Miami.
Bet
Miami Heat +3 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Los Angles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks -9.5, 232
LeBron James is out, which is why this spread is so big. I make the Bucks eight-point favorites with a total of 233, which puts me close to market. Los Angeles is one of the few teams with as much size as Milwaukee, but without James they are too far behind in over talent. Giannis Antetokounmpo looks to be past his hamstring problems and the Bucks have a good hold on the second seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to an 11-4 record since the All-Star break. My gut says over because the Lakers tend to push pace without LeBron, but my brain doesn’t see any value in this game. No bets for me here.
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans +1, 223.5
This is the game of the night and a preview of an eventual playoff series this year or in the years to come. Both are exciting, young teams full of talent. The Thunder are the younger team, but most of the roster has played together for years and they’ve shown all season they work well together. Zion Williamson is playing his best basketball, which has unlocked the Pelicans’ peak potential. I think the matchup favors New Orleans even without Brandon Ingram. They are the bigger, more physical team and Oklahoma City has struggled with those types of teams all season. My projections make this game Pelicans -1 with a total of 222, which puts me in line with the current odds. I lean New Orleans, but the current odds are mostly correct, so I’ll pass.
Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings -1, 233
This is a hugely important game for Western Conference seeding. Both teams have a record of 42-29, but the Kings have already beaten the Mavericks twice, which gives them the tiebreaker and the 6 seed, the final guaranteed postseason spot. These squads play Tuesday and again Friday night. If Sacramento can win once, they will keep the tiebreaker over Dallas which is effectively worth a half game in the standings. If the Mavericks can win both, they would have a two-game lead over the Kings and no longer be losing the head-to-head tiebreaker. I make Sacramento a two-point favorite with a total of 231. Those aren’t big enough edges to play, but I don’t an under bet in this game. It should be an intense matchup, which means the teams will hold the ball longer during possessions, which may improve their efficiency but slows the game to a crawl. Although that’s what I expect, I’m not betting on it and have no wagers for this matchup.
