Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Stephen Curry o28.5 points
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Stephen Curry projects for north of 31 points tonight in this elite matchup against the Rockets, who are 25th in points allowed, while also ranking 30th in 3PTs allowed and 28th in 3PT% allowed. The only potential issue here is the blowout with an 11-point spread, but the Warriors need to take care of business. Even if this game does get out of hand, it’s likely Steph plays a big part in it.
Walker Kessler o2.5 Blocks + Steals
(-120, DraftKings)
Walker Kessler doesn’t add a ton in the steals department, so if you prefer to chase the longer number, then you can also take o2.5 blocks at +140, as I like both. Kessler has 3+ blocks in eight of his last 10 games and should see plenty of opportunities in this fast-paced matchup against the Kings. With no Lauri Markkanen, we should continue to see big minutes for the big man who played 35 minutes last game.
P.J. Washington o16.5 points
(-108, FanDuel Sportsbook)
P.J. Washington has played the Pacers twice this year, scoring 22 and 24 points, and this is a great matchup for him due to the Pacers’ struggles against shooters. Indiana ranks 27th in 3PT% allowed and 20th in 3s allowed. Washington should also continue to see big minutes. He has played at least 30 minutes in six of seven games since returning from an injury a couple weeks ago. My model projects him for over 19 points.
