NBA Best Bets of the Day (3/18)


NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 


James Harden Over 10.5 Assists

(-130, FanDuel Sportsbook)

It’s a great matchup here for James Harden, as the Pacers are 26th in defense and  26th in assists allowed. Harden is averaging nearly 13 APG over his last five games, and he is averaging 13 APG against the Pacers this season thanks to his 20 assists performance against them March 6. 

Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3s

(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Stephen Curry is averaging 5 threes per game over his last 10 games, and in those last 10 games he has no fewer than 4 threes made per game. It’s a good matchup here against the Grizzlies, who are 23rd in threes allowed. 


Jaren Jackson Over 3.5 Blks+Stls

(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

We hit this Friday and are going right back to it here. Jaren Jackson is averaging 4.1 Blks+Stls per game on the year, and my model projects him for right around that. Another thing to note is that Jackson is averaging 5.2 Blks+Stls per game at home, more than two more than on the road, and the Grizzlies will host the Warriors. 

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