NBA Best Bets of the Day (3/17)


NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 


Stephen Curry Over 29.5 Points

(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

It’s a good spot here for Stephen Curry, who sees his usage go up to over 33% with Andrew Wiggins off the floor. My model has Curry for over 33  in a matchup against the Hawks, who are 24th in points allowed. 

Kyle Anderson Over 5.5 Assists

(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)

After constantly hitting the over on 4.5 assists, Kyle Anderson’s line is nowup to 5.5 but its back to being plus-money. He has at least 8 assists in three straight games in the four of his last five. My model has him for north of 7 Friday. 


Tyus Jones Over 1.5 3s Made

(-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tyus Jones has gone a bit cold from three, only making 1 three in each of his last three games, but he now has an elite matchup against the Spurs who are 30th in 3PT% allowed. My model like Jones to bounce back to at least two 3s here. 

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