MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! I’m sure you’re surprised to see me on a Wednesday, but I thought I would do something special for all you wonderful people. We are nearing the end of the 82-game marathon that is the NBA season and teams have 17 or 18 games left to find success.
The standings in both conferences are getting tight and just a few games separate teams from hosting a series in round one or having to earn the spot in the postseason through the Play-In Tournament. This is exactly the drama we all hoped for when the NBA instituted this new structure that only guarantees playoff spots to the top six teams in each conference and forces teams seven through ten to fight for the final two openings.
It’s a great time for NBA, so let’s take a look at Wednesday’s games to see what we can expect to happen and hopefully find some value in the betting markets. Since it’s a special Wednesday edition, you can also watch Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions of your own, leave them there in the comments section and I’ll get back to you ASAP. Now, onto the hoops.
NBA Best Bets for Wednesday
Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic
Current Line – Magic -7, 206
My Projection – Magic 110, Nets 101
Key Injuries – None
These are teams headed in different directions. The Nets came into the season with one of the more intriguing rosters. There’s no star player in Brooklyn, but there is a large collection of long, athletic players who can defend, score and possibly come together to be greater than the sum of their parts. Unfortunately, things have not come together. Despite having a lot of defensive talent, they’ve been one of the worst teams in the league on that end of the floor. The Offense has nights where everything clicks and they put up a big number, but, in general, this team is headed towards a rebuild and not growing into a contender. The Magic have exceeded expectations at every point of this season and have a chance to host a playoff series at home. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner look like potential stars and Orlando has several other good young players and draft pick assets to finish building a great team. The Magic are big favorites and deserve to be.
The mistake I see in the current odds is the total. Unders have been cashing at high rate since the All-Star break. You would be up over 25 units if you blindly bet every total under since Feb. 22 when teams returned to play. Most of that is due to a drop in attempted free throws. Shooting efficiency has remained consistent, but we are seeing teams shoots a few less free throws per game and those add up quickly. The market has responded and we’ve seen a few totals posted at 209 points or less including this game tonight. Orlando is among the league leaders in free throw attempts, but have seen their attempts drop less than other teams. Brooklyn shoots among the fewest free throw attempts and those attempts have held steady. I don’t expect this matchup to be impacted as much as other games have been and I make this total 211 which is a pretty big edge on the over at 206. The Magic might be able to slow this game down to a crawl, but they haven’t done that in the past weeks and the Nets are always happy to run. Over 206, or anything 208 or lower, is a bet for me.
Bet
Brooklyn Nets/Orlando Magic Over 206 (-110, Caesars)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons -3.5, 232
As nuts as I feel typing this, I think the Detroit Pistons should be favored in an NBA basketball game. Thanks to all the hard work they did losing game after game early in the season, the Pistons have all but locked up one of the worst three records in the league. That means they’ll have the best odds possible at winning the No. 1 draft pick and allows them to push their young players to try to win to end the season. Detroit needs to see what they have and they’ve been playing better. The Raptors are a mess. Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl are out while Immanuel Quickeyl and Gary Trent are listed as questionable. If the latter two miss the game, I don’t see how the Raptors score even against a bad defense. I’ve been eyeing a Toronto team total under all day, but I want to make sure at least one of Quickley or Trent are not playing. Be sure you join the FTN Bets Discord, because I’ll post that play if I make it later in the #nba-plays channel.
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers -4, 229
The Pacers played Tuesday night and are one of the worst teams in the NBA against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back. The Bulls are playing their sixth game in a row after having to travel. They played a four-game road trip, got smacked by the Mavericks in Chicago Monday, and are in Indianapolis now. That’s a lot of travel for any team and this could be a down spot for them before going back to Chicago for a few game homestand. It’s a messy spot for both teams and my projections don’t show a big enough edge to make a bet. I make this game Pacers -3 with a total of 232. The Bulls have been playing better and I think they can win this game, but I don’t see any value in betting on it.
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat +3.5, 216
We’ve got an NBA Finals rematch and a game that we can expect to be played at the highest level each team has. These teams faced each other at the end of February and the game looked like what we saw in the championship round last season. They combined to shoot 167 times, much lower than the average of 180-plus shot attempts we see in an NBA game. The Nuggets and Heat were grinding through possessions in search of the best opportunities which drives efficiency up, but drives down the pace. With that in mind, I don’t hate a bet on the under, but I make this total 216 which is just above the currently posted number. I make the spread the same as the market, so there’s just no edges I can see. It will be a great game and one I watch closely, but not a game I’ll be betting.
Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies +2, 203
This might be the worst NBA game all season and one you shouldn’t be thinking about, much less watching or even betting. The total is one of the lowest we’ve seen all season, but might not be low enough for a game that will feature several players likely to be in the G League next season. Let’s all save our time, avoid suffering, and try to just forget this game is even happening.
Cleveland Cavaliers at New Orleans Pelicans -6, 217
This is another game where there are a few bets I want to make, but I have to wait to make them later when the injury report is clearer. The Pelicans are one of the more underrated teams in the league and should be able to win this game by margin, but things get tighter if Donovan Mitchell can play. The Cavalier has been missing time with knee bruise and is listed as questionable. If Mitchell plays, I still like New Orleans, but this spread will move against them. Once we know who’s playing, I’m going to back New Orleans in the first quarter or first half. The Pelicans are much different in the first half versus the second. They start games well, build a big lead, and then slow things down, ceding points to the their opponents, but not enough to lose. Check the Discord later once we know if Mitchel is playing or not. I’ll post my wagers there.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -7, 233
I think this is a great game for betting alternate spreads, but unfortunately, I don’t know which side you should be betting. The Mavericks have the worst defense in the league the last few weeks and are tinkering with their lineups which is a terrifying sign this late in the season. Dallas is capable of giving up a lot of points to any team, even the Warriors who are without Stephen Curry. That said, Golden State’s offense has been bad without Curry. It’s a classic contest of the stoppable force versus the moveable object. If the Mavericks can play just enough defense, they can crush this Warriors teams and win this game by 15-plus, even 20-plus points covering a lot of alternate spreads. However, if Dallas cannot defend and Golden State has a good night shooting then the Warriors can keep this game close and cover some alternate spreads themselves or even win. I don’t know what to make of this game, so I’m passing on it.
Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trail Blazers +3.5, 218
OK, this won’t be as bad as Hornets/Grizzlies, but this is going to be pretty bad. The Hawks are more or less locked into a matchup with the Chicago Bulls in the Play-In Tournament and the Trail Blazers are looking at a good, but not great, chance at the No. 1 pick in the draft next season. Atlanta is trying to find a system that wins without Trae Young and they’ve won some games, but still look like a bad team overall. Portland is taking these last 18 games to see what they have in Scoot Henderson and other young players. That’s the right decision, although not a winning decision for the Trail Blazers. I agree that the Hawks should be favored, even on the road, and make this game Atlanta -3 with a total of 216. Thankfully those are not big enough edges for me to bet on a game that I don’t want to watch.
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings +2.5, 238
This is a huge game for playoff seeding. The Kings are currently the 7 seed in the Western Conference and only two games ahead of the Lakers. The 7 seed gets to host their Play-In game(s) and only must win once to lock up a postseason spot. The 9 seed, where the Lakers are now, has to win two games to get into the postseason. Sacramento has beaten Los Angeles three times already this season which gives them the tiebreaker and effectively another half game in the standings. The Kings played Tuesday, but the game was at home, and they won comfortably so they didn’t have to put much stress on their best players. The Lakers have had the last two days off, which gives them a big rest advantage, but Sacramento should be good to go.
So, will the Kings continue to beat the Lakers like they have all season or will LeBron James and Anthony Davis raise their levels in a game they need to win? It’s going to be a interesting game to follow, but my projections are close to the current odds. The Lakers have been bet since the open moving the spread from Los Angeles +2.5 to -2.5. That’s real signal from sharp bettors the Lakers are the right side, but unfortunately, they already scooped up all the valuable prices and left nothing for us. This is an example of “steam” and although it’s often hard to figure out why spreads are moving without a clear injury status change, the Lakers have been bet consistently all day until the odds got to where they are now and things have settled. That’s a sign that the market thinks this is the correct price — it is not a sign that you should chase the sharp line movement at a bad number. Observing market moves is important, but be sure you’re not trying to follow sharps by making a bet at a bad number.
