Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We only have six NBA games Monday as the league creeps closer to the All-Star break, which begins Feb. 16. There is also the trade deadline looming at 3 p.m. ET Thursday. This is a messy time of the schedule, and it requires us to be very careful and vigilant about monitoring player news. Whether a trade or a surprise player rest game, there are a lot of variables to consider even more than we do normally. Let’s keep all that in mind as we go through each game to see what might happen and how we might be able to bet on them.
It is Monday, so you can check out the video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Please leave a comment there with any questions or suggestions you might have, and I’ll be sure to answer. Now, to the basketball.
NBA Best Bets for Monday
Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks
Current Line – Clippers -3, 241.5
My Projection – Clippers 121, Hawks 122
Key Injuries – Clint Capela is out. De’Andre Hunter is questionable.
The Clippers played a tough, very physical game in Miami Sunday night. They won 103-95 over the Heat, but Kawhi Leonard played 35 minutes and James Harden played 42 minutes off a night out in Miami. They are in Atlanta Monday to play their seventh and final game of a seven-game road trip. That is a brutal schedule spot for a veteran team. The average age of the top eight players for the Clippers is 31 years old. It’s one of the oldest rosters in the league. That makes the fatigue from travel and minutes played worse than it would be for a younger team. We have not seen their injury report yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they rest a few players. To make matters even worse, their opponent loves to play fast and push pace, which is most effective against a tired team. Los Angeles is a great team and if this were not such a bad schedule spot, I might have backed them at this price, but this is the perfect time to fade the Clippers.
The Hawks are back! OK, I don’t think the Atlanta Hawks are good or even a threat in the playoffs if they make it that far. I am excited to see that have been covering spreads and the market rating on them has leveled out after a historically bad start to the season. Atlanta was the worst team against the spread at home, on the road, as a favorite, and as an underdog until last week. They are still the worst in three of those four categories, but they have covered their last three games and won their last four outright. Their injury problems have cleared up and they are taking advantage of a six-game homestand, which ends here. The longer teams are at home, the better they shoot as they get more comfortable with the sightlines and the conditions in general. I make them a one point favorite and we get to bet them at +3. Let’s do that.
Bet
Atlanta Hawks +3 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets +12.5, 227.5
As is tradition, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable. There is not an official injury report for Charlotte because they played Sunday night, but we can expect Gordon Hayward to be out and LaMelo Ball likely out for this game. So, do you want to lay 12.5 points with the Lakers not knowing whether or not LeBron or AD are playing? Your other option is to bet on a team starting Ish Smith and Bryce McGowens as their lead guards getting only 12.5 points? Those are terrible options. Let’s skip this game.
Sacramento Kings at Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5, 235
This looks like a good spot to back Cleveland and fade Sacramento, but I just can’t get there. The Kings are playing their last game of a seven-game road trip which is a bad spot as I mentioned earlier. The Cavaliers have been one of the better teams in the NBA this month and especially good at home. They match up well Sacramento. Cleveland’s defense can slow down the Kings offense while the Cavaliers guards should put up big numbers on offense. The matchup and spot scream Cleveland to me, but my projections have this game Cavaliers -1 so I just don’t see the value in backing then -3.5.
Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers +1.5, 242.5
This game is a mess. Joel Embiid is out for an extended period of time, possibly the rest of the season. I expect the Philadelphia 76ers will figure out how to adjust and win games, but so far, they have not won a single game without Embiid and when Tyrese Maxery scores less than 51 points. Luka Doncic is questionable and Dereck Lively is out for the Dallas Mavericks, who play again on the road, in Brooklyn Tuesday night. I’m not confident in my projection for Philadelphia because I do expect Nick Nurse to try to change how they play basketball since Embiid is likely not going to play until the postseason, if at all. The Mavericks have been able to stay afloat with just one of Luka and Kyrie Irving, but they are not a great team, especially when Lively can’t play. I can’t bet this game.
Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets -1.5, 237.5
These prices match what my model spit out almost exactly, and I can’t see any discernible matchup differences to attack. The Warriors are in the middle of five-game Eastern Conference road trip, which can be tough, but they need to win a lot of games to bet back into the postseason. There is no reason to expect anything less than their best even on the road. The Nets play the Warriors here and then the Dallas Mavericks Tuesday night as well, which creates the chance, albeit a small one, that start to rest players if the game gets out of hand. Brooklyn shoots a lot of threes, which means on the right night they can cover any spread with ease or miss the spread without being close. That makes any game tough to bet, but especially one priced this closely. I’ll pass on this game.
Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans -11.5, 230
This is the only home game for the Pelicans sandwiched in between two four-game road trips. Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are listed as questionable. They face the Raptors, who are playing their fifth consecutive road game and played a 2-overtime battle in Oklahoma City Sunday night. The Raptors lost and all their key players were on the floor for 40-plus minutes. I think New Orleans can win this game comfortably even without Zion, but I only make it Pelicans -9 without Zion and Pelicans -12 with Zion. There’s just no value on either side even though it feels like a great spot to fade the Raptors.
