Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Mikal Bridges Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mikal Bridges has been on fire lately in the absence of Devin Booker. He is averaging 23 PPG over his last 10 games, which is up from his 17 PPG average. However, he has also seen his assist production go way up as well, as he is averaging 5.5 APG, which is nearly two full assists more than his average. He is also a pretty solid rebounder, averaging nearly 4.5 per game, which is actually down over his last 10 games to just 3.5. All in all, my model has Bridges projected to go over this number on points and assists alone (21.3 points, 4.5 assists), but I also have him for 4 rebounds.
Fred VanVleet Over 29.5 Points + Assists
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Speaking of someone being on fire due to a teammate being out … we have seen some vintage Fred VanVleet lately with OG Anunoby sidelined. And the underlying numbers back it up, as his usage rate goes up over 28% with Anunoby off the floor this season. VanVleet now has at least 24 points in back-to-back games and seven of his last nine, averaging 24.2 over that frame. He has also seen Houston twice this year, and is averaging 32 points in those two games, which makes sense as Houston ranks 24th in points allowed and 30th in threes allowed.
Eric Gordon Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I guess there is a trend of guys picking up the slack of teams with injured players in this article, because Eric Gordon has been doing just that with Kevin Porter and Jalen Green sidelined, as Gordon has at least 24 points in back-to-back games. With those two out, Gordon sees a huge usage bump to over 27% this season, and while Toronto is typically viewed as a tough matchup, they actually have been friendly to shooters this yar as they rank 28th in FG% allowed and 29th in 3PT% allowed, and their defense definitely does not get better with OG Anunoby sidelined.
