MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s a TNT Thursday, and in a pleasant surprise we have eight games of NBA action instead of the 3-4 games we usually get on Thursdays. It’s almost March, which means we have a few games featuring teams not trying to win, but there are a few great matchups for us to enjoy.
There’s an NBA Finals rematch, a possible preview of a future Western Conference Finals series, and Stephen Curry in Madison Square Garden. Curry played just three minutes in his first game in New York, but his 10 appearances since then he has averaged 28.1 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 made threes per game.
It should be a fun night of basketball, but let’s see if we can also make some money betting on it.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Current Line – Thunder -11, 238
My Projection – Thunder 126, Spurs 110
Key Injuries – None
The Spurs are having a good season by their metrics. They have one of the three worst records in the league, which gives them the best chance at the top pick in this year’s draft. The top pick in last year’s draft, Victor Wembanyama, looks even better than we expected. They have a fun starting five, with a few guys who might even be on the team in a few years, but the roster lacks top end talent and good depth which is a rare, dangerous combination. The Spurs have been starting games well and even keeping them close despite losing, but that’s generally against opponents in bad schedule spots that overlooking San Antonio. Be sure you take advantage of any opportunity to watch Victor Wembanayama, but don’t expect to watch a Spurs victory or even cover against the spread.
Often the better teams in the league don’t play their best basketball against the league’s worst opponents. They use those games as opportunities to rest their stars and give the backups more minutes to see what they can do. The Thunder do not follow this strategy. In games against the Hornets, Pistons, Trail Blazers, Wizards and Spurs, they are 7-3 against the spread with an average margin of victory of 23.4 points. Oklahoma City has one of the most talented, deep rosters in the league. They have 12 players who all deserve to play a meaningful role for a good NBA team. The Thunder have built a great organization and get their players to give their best effort every night regardless of opponent. I make them 16 point favorites and the spread is only 11. It’s a big number, but not big enough. Give me OKC -11.
Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder -11 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic -6.5, 225.5
The Jazz are 5-12 over their last 17 games after starting the season 22-20. They traded away a few players at the deadline for future assets, but at the cost of the team’s depth this year. The Jazz had two five man units that played well together and allowed Utah to win games against their opponent’s backup players. Without the depth to do that, they are very limited. The Magic match up well against the Jazz with their team full of long defenders that can keep Utah from shooting threes efficiently. Unfortunately, Paolo Banchero is listed as questionable and without him, I’m not sure Orlando has enough offensive firepower to cover this number. If Banchero plays, I make this game Magic -11 and would happily lay the 6.5 points offered now, but there is not way to be sure he plays. Make sure you’re in the FTN Bets Discord, because I think the spread for the Magic might still be in a bettable range if Banchero is announced to be playing. I’ll post any bets I make in the #nba-plays channel.
Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets +12, 217.5
These two teams played Tuesday, and the Bucks won by 38 in Milwaukee. It was a bad schedule spot for the Hornets who were finishing a four-game road trip. Things should be better for them in Charlotte, but I’m still not backing them with only 12 points. This is the fourth time these teams have played and the Bucks have won the first three games by an average of 35 points per game. Now, that doesn’t mean the spread for this game should be 34.5, but I do make it 14.5 in Milwaukee’s favor. The Bucks have played better in their last few games and covered some big spreads, but they are still just 5-12 against the spread when favorites of 10 points or more. Milwaukee has been happy to rest their best players late in games which leaves the backdoor open for the underdog to cover. I can’t trust the Bucks laying this many points and it’s not enough points for me to back the Hornets. I’ll pass on this game.
Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks +4, 222.5
This is a messy game for both sides. The Knicks already know they won’t have OG Anunoby, Julius Randle or Mitchell Robinson, and they might also be missing Jalen Brunson. That’s a lot of talent to be without, but New York still has a good defensive roster and just maybe enough shooting to keep this game close if their lead guard can’t be play. If Brunson can play, I have this game close to a pick ‘em and would back the Knicks at this spread. If Brunson can’t play, I make the Warriors 5.5 point favorites which is a small edge in their favor, but this isn’t a good schedule spot for Golden State. They play in New York here and face the Raptors Friday in Toronto. There’s a chance they rest some players or limit minutes to keep guys fresh for tomorrow. The Warriors are also working Chris Paul back into the lineup, which will be disruptive for a game or two as other players adjust to have CP3 on the court and others deal with playing less minutes. There’s just too much unknown to sort through. I think the Knicks can win this game with Brunson, but I also think the spread will move too much for us to make that wager if he’s announced to be playing later.
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets -1.5, 222.5
You should be on the Hawks or not bet this game at all, and I’m choosing the latter. The Brooklyn Nets are a mess and a team that should be faded for the rest of the season. Players have not responded to their new coach, Kevin Ollie, and look generally disinterested in playing basketball. Brooklyn has nothing to gain from losing and most likely can’t win enough games to even be in the Play-In tournament. The Hawks are without Trae Young for a few weeks, but are the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference, which puts them in the Play-In Tournament. Atlanta has a chance to get to the No. 9 seed, which gives them a game at home to start the Play-In. They’ve won a few games in a row and are playing well enough to beat the Nets and when they play again Saturday. I make the Hawks a 1.5-point favorite, which is a small edge, and I’m still worried Atlanta could go back to giving up leads late. No bets for me.
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns -8.5, 233
I show a little value on the Rockets in this matchup, but I don’t feel strongly enough to bet on Houston. The spread is 8.5, and I would make it 6. The Suns have been overpriced for most of the season and might be without Bradley Beal, but Phoenix hasn’t played a game since beating the Lakers Sunday at home. That means they been in Phoenix all week and have had three full days to rest, work on injury recover, and even work on some concepts in practice. Even without Beal, the Suns should be fresh, comfortable with the shooting sight lines, and more than capable of beating a less talented Rockets team. Houston did beat Phoenix last Friday, but the Suns were on the second night of a back-to-back which is tough for veteran teams. The Rockets have shown that they have the defensive talent and scheme to slow down any offense, but they have struggled to do that on the road. I lean Rockets, but I think this too good of a spot for the Suns to bet on Houston. I’ll pass.
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets -4.5, 214.5
This NBA Finals rematch should be a fun game to watch, but I don’t see any value in betting on it. The Nuggets played Wednesday, but the game was at home and their key plays all played less than minutes than normal. The Heat, as they always do, have several names on the injury report, but outside of Tyler Herro who is questionable, it looks like all of their key players will be on the court. These are two teams that are tough to handicap because both have made it clear they are willing to give up regular season wins to ensure they have a healthy roster for the playoffs. That said, both play their best basketball against their best opponents in preparation for the postseason and I expect both squads to give their best effort tonight. Generally that’s a good thing for under bettors because tightly contested games slow down late and scoring plummets. Unfortunately, the total has already been adjusted too low in my opinion. As for the matchup, I think Denver is the better team, but Miami can keep it within a few baskets. I make this game Nuggets -6 with a total of 216.5. Those edges are too small to bet, so nothing for me here.
Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers -9.5, 243
This is a classic “two bad options” game. The Wizards had been a team that covered a few big spreads for us, but they are missing Den Avdija and Bilal Coulibaly. Avdija is the best player on the team and Coulibaly one of their best players. Without them, Washington is forced to play Landry Shamet, Johnny Davis and Jordan Poole more minutes and late in games when the Wizards have a chance to cover big spreads. That’s a bad situation and certainly not worth a bet at only +9.5. On the other hand, the Lakers played a tough game last night and needed 36+ minutes from LeBron James and Anthony Davis. There is a chance one, if not both, rest in tonight’s game. If they can both play, I make this Lakers -11, which is close to a bet if the spread doesn’t move. There’s no good bets to be made on this game for now. If there is a good bet to make later, I’ll be sure to post it in the Discord.
