NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Kyle Anderson Over 4.5 Assists
(+120, BetRivers)
Kyle Anderson has continued to step up for this team, especially with Karl-Anthony Towns out and D’Angelo Russell traded away. Anderson has a usage rate above 21% over his last three games, and in that time he has 15 assists. He also has at least 12 points in three straight games, so if you are looking to add the points + assists play at -115, I also like that number quite a bit as my model projects Anderson for 15.4 points and over 6 assists.
Mikal Bridges Over 23.5 Points + Assists
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mikal Bridges has been on a tear as of late, whether in a Suns or Nets uniform, as he has at least 20 points in eight of his last 10. He is also coming off of a 45-point performance in the final game before the All-Star break. Bridges has seen a monster uptick in usage following the trade to the Nets, as he has a 30% usage rate in his first three games. While he likely won’t stay that high in that category, he will most definitely continue to see a solid increase over the rates he had with the Suns. The Bulls actually setup as a decent matchup for Bridges as well, as they are 27th in 3PTs allowed and 23rd in assists allowed.
Jrue Holiday Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
With Giannis Antetokounmpo doubtful, Jrue Holiday should see a ton of usage for this Bucks team, especially with the team seemingly looking to continue to limit Khris Middleton’s minutes. Although it is not a great matchup for Holiday, my model has him playing over 35 minutes and producing 22 points, 8 assists, and nearly 6 rebounds.
UPDATE: Giannis has now been upgraded to questionable, so there’s a shot he plays after all. With that, I have Jrue projected for 18 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.7 rebounds, so if you wanted to still hit this number and hope Giannis is out, that is an option, however if he plays I would be off this typically.
